tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post6101930247865482511..comments2024-03-18T13:22:06.536-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Dollar updateScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18692876399723425602009-10-14T11:55:10.402-07:002009-10-14T11:55:10.402-07:00Federal debt is still way less than 100% of GDP, a...Federal debt is still way less than 100% of GDP, although it is headed in that direction. Italy and Japan had debt ratios in excess of GDP for many years. A big government sector and a lot of debt is a prescription for painfully slow growth (which is basically what I am expecting), but it is not necessarily a prescription for disaster. <br /><br />Also, I think it is premature to conclude that Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5596538169938718652009-10-14T10:11:53.617-07:002009-10-14T10:11:53.617-07:00Scott, what about the debt? We are approaching 10...Scott, what about the debt? We are approaching 100% of GDP. The next big legislative agenda (post-health care) will be HUGE tax increases in response to the next "crisis" to be highlighted by the media and government--debt.<br /><br />That means, any shoots of recovery we see now will be stomped on when we see massive tax increases.<br /><br />What you then have left is Argentina...Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068805988034886750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54946071645976682492009-10-12T17:41:32.298-07:002009-10-12T17:41:32.298-07:00Just wait for all the multi-national companies to ...Just wait for all the multi-national companies to report earnings this week. The week dollar is helping the companies tremendously, and their earnings will be through the roof. Weak dollar looks to be good news for American corporations. After all corporate profits are what really drive the economy.....as you regularly state, Scott.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11220806915938960892noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34329210791392344532009-10-12T15:06:09.899-07:002009-10-12T15:06:09.899-07:00It doesn't surprise me that the dollar is bein...It doesn't surprise me that the dollar is being trash-talked. After all it is very weak and neither the Fed nor the Obama administration appear to be in the least concerned. This is another factor weighing down the dollar: benign neglect.<br /><br />However, I don't think the dollar is on the verge of losing its reserve status.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59994495681260034852009-10-12T14:57:50.369-07:002009-10-12T14:57:50.369-07:00Scott,
You are dead on about politicians having l...Scott,<br /><br />You are dead on about politicians having little clue.....history is replete with examples.<br /><br />Do you think all this chatter about the dollar losing its reserve status is simply chatter....if not, is it something we should be paying attention to and why?alstryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16025398896639165994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2970805711781920782009-10-12T14:49:50.245-07:002009-10-12T14:49:50.245-07:00I expect the dollar to climb only on bad news abou...I expect the dollar to climb only on bad news about other currencies. That seems quite possible, cause whole global market is shaky.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02891026012522167083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24310960574982385132009-10-12T14:12:58.343-07:002009-10-12T14:12:58.343-07:00Tax revenues are a lagging indicator of the state ...Tax revenues are a lagging indicator of the state of the economy. I think cutbacks in city and state spending are for the most part already factored in. In any event, they are also lagging indicators. When did a politician ever correctly anticipate the direction of the economy? Politicians almost always react to conditions; they are rarely proactive.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-58373046383764167052009-10-12T14:04:31.109-07:002009-10-12T14:04:31.109-07:00Scott.
In light of all the postive data on the ma...Scott.<br /><br />In light of all the postive data on the margin, how do you reconcile the evaporating tax revenues to cities, counties, and states in September?<br /><br />Do you think significant cutbacks from municipal spending could provide headwinds for a continued recovery?alstryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16025398896639165994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31331246001180570122009-10-12T13:00:54.420-07:002009-10-12T13:00:54.420-07:00Perhaps in this case the Fed is the tape...
You h...Perhaps in this case the Fed is the tape...<br /><br />You have a profitable but very crowded tradeScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36756328497318824972009-10-12T12:55:56.796-07:002009-10-12T12:55:56.796-07:00I thought the mantra was "don't fight the...I thought the mantra was "don't fight the Fed"? <br /><br />Until proven otherwise, and aside from the 2008 panic, your charts prove a good case that since 2000, the Fed could care less if the dollar rides to the depths.<br /><br />I am not fighting the Fed and using ULE as one tool to do it...Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.com