tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post6060346232422433783..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Federal budget updateScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70736633545778436322011-08-11T12:35:16.860-07:002011-08-11T12:35:16.860-07:00Tax policies have always favored real estate. So, ...Tax policies have always favored real estate. So, does is not look like the Fed is helping to save RE by keeping rates ultra low for the next two and a half years?<br /><br />Since banks have plenty of it on their books, and by keeping rates ultra low, isn't this a continuation of the bailouts? As it helps banks slowly and surely sell off the inventory without much in the way of interest Lorihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01438039963046848511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63604207067047705002011-08-11T11:34:57.859-07:002011-08-11T11:34:57.859-07:00Friedman and Fed policy.
I don't know what Fr...Friedman and Fed policy.<br /><br />I don't know what Friedman would do on interest rates, but he was pretty clear that what Japan needed in these circumstances was steady QE until inflation resulted. <br /><br />It can't get any more clear than his own words: <br /><br />See http://www.hoover.org/publications/hoover-digest/article/6549Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30163062080194957512011-08-11T11:32:36.427-07:002011-08-11T11:32:36.427-07:00Hans-
Thanks for the link. As I said, the Russki...Hans-<br /><br />Thanks for the link. As I said, the Russkies never went in for full-on aircraft carriers, but did build a helicopter carrier, and a handful of aircraft cruisers, now all gone. <br /><br />"She was originally commissioned in the Soviet Navy, and was intended to be the lead ship of her class, but the only other ship of her class, Varyag, was never commissioned and was sold toBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5146099877964678022011-08-11T09:27:49.346-07:002011-08-11T09:27:49.346-07:00I see no signs of a double-dip recession.I see no signs of a double-dip recession.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66596734824179283672011-08-11T08:59:26.414-07:002011-08-11T08:59:26.414-07:00Scott, I'm curious what you think about the od...Scott, I'm curious what you think about the odds of a double dip recession. Most of the pundits think it's a foregone conclusion. Then again, most of the pundits are usually wrong!Mike Eliasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15035227065407574760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24484127713350566782011-08-11T08:43:57.269-07:002011-08-11T08:43:57.269-07:00Re European liquidity: Euro financial markets are ...Re European liquidity: Euro financial markets are clearly under stress, but I'm not sure that it is because of a liquidity squeeze. 2-yr swap spreads are trading at 80 bps, which is moderately high and indicative of problems in the banking industry. But not catastrophic conditions. The Euro is reasonably strong against the dollar, but has fallen just like all currencies against gold, so no Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50903339180290311022011-08-11T08:25:55.199-07:002011-08-11T08:25:55.199-07:00Re what would MF do: I think there is no way on ea...Re what would MF do: I think there is no way on earth he would have approved of the Fed announcing that its target interest rate would hold for two years. Especially considering M2 growth is accelerating.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-26771780150543484502011-08-11T06:31:18.482-07:002011-08-11T06:31:18.482-07:00Scott, anyone:
Do you see any evidence of a globa...Scott, anyone:<br /><br />Do you see any evidence of a global or European liquidity squeeze? GaveKal has been warning of such a development for the past few weeks.<br /><br />One of your graphs showed a major spread in European swaps. Thanks.mmanagedaccountshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08188469703346980431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86641388846006671442011-08-10T21:49:39.324-07:002011-08-10T21:49:39.324-07:00But maybe Scott can weigh in on the question what ...But maybe Scott can weigh in on the question what would Milton do?Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068805988034886750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-862237450832797262011-08-10T21:42:40.261-07:002011-08-10T21:42:40.261-07:00And while we are at it, MF would have been against...And while we are at it, MF would have been against Obama care too!<br /><br />http://www.humblelibertarian.com/2010/02/milton-friedman-responds-to-barack.htmlJeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068805988034886750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83548500050609341812011-08-10T21:38:55.763-07:002011-08-10T21:38:55.763-07:00MF also would have scoffed at too big to fail and ...MF also would have scoffed at too big to fail and the resulting government actions based on that premise.<br /><br />MF advocated freedom and limited government. Obama and company would label him a tea-party terrorist.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068805988034886750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33783762947237555012011-08-10T21:36:01.342-07:002011-08-10T21:36:01.342-07:00I am no expert, but I doubt that MF would have sup...I am no expert, but I doubt that MF would have supported all the fed actions...including qe 1, 2, and beyond. I offer the following:<br /><br />More revolutionary still was Mr. Friedman's proposition that monetary policy can affect real output only in the short run. The Phillips curve works only for a few months. Long-term economic growth depends on real factors like innovation, investment Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068805988034886750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51744359447692018372011-08-10T19:42:44.623-07:002011-08-10T19:42:44.623-07:00Why is it when prices go down at Walmart, or say h...Why is it when prices go down at Walmart, or say home depot, it's a positive. When home values go down it's a negative. <br /><br />The problem is, banks are holding worthless mortgages and govt. policy is short circuiting the market clearance mechanism. We have death by 1000 cuts. All this angst to save stodgy old banks that utterly ruined themselves.Steve Khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13432588336315831351noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60543482020450225052011-08-10T19:34:18.925-07:002011-08-10T19:34:18.925-07:00Plain wrong logic Benji. The Fed can only do harm ...Plain wrong logic Benji. The Fed can only do harm via incentives for malinvestment. The Fed never was nor never will be needed.<br /><br />The irony is everyone knows sometimes the best thing to do is nothing. However, our govt and quasi govt never heed the advice.<br /><br />I agree with Eff. Actually, back in 2008 I called for the Fed to normalize rates between 3.5-5% and let the Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-35919529554434017212011-08-10T15:40:32.375-07:002011-08-10T15:40:32.375-07:00Having practiced medicine for 30+ years in a hospi...Having practiced medicine for 30+ years in a hospital setting with contact with many doctors of most specialties and with hospital administrators as a Chief Pathologist, I must insist market incentives will do very little to control costs in health care.<br /><br />Firstly, doctors are the ones who write the orders for tests, radiology studies, medications, hospital admissions and all kinds of Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86355915614076673542011-08-10T15:12:38.685-07:002011-08-10T15:12:38.685-07:00Jeff-
Monetarists like Scott Sumner, David Glasne...Jeff-<br /><br />Monetarists like Scott Sumner, David Glasner, and now even Martin Feldstein, Greg Mankiw and others are not calling for federal stimulus. They are calling for a Fed to stimulate the economy. From their point of view, federal spending is neither stimulative or restrictive. <br /><br />They are calling for a Milton Friedman-esque approach. If you have hit zero bound (we have), if Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70998638605405629622011-08-10T14:52:21.182-07:002011-08-10T14:52:21.182-07:00Benji,
Nihilism? I'd say objective evaluatio...Benji,<br /><br />Nihilism? I'd say objective evaluation of Obama/Ben's attempts to inflate. It will not work. Period.<br /><br />Federal stimulus of the economy will work about as well as Federal stimulus of the housing market (remember $8000 home buyer tax credits, $6500 move up tax credits, not to mention MBS and pushing interest rates to nothing!) and the car market (remember cash Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068805988034886750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46136818810544712402011-08-10T13:41:00.881-07:002011-08-10T13:41:00.881-07:00Inflation?
Explain why since the start of this ye...Inflation?<br /><br />Explain why since the start of this year, the average value of a USA commercial mortgage backed security has dropped to 60 from 90 cents per dollar face value (see page C8, WSJ for you old fogies with newspapers, like me).<br /><br />Dudes, we have no choice. We have to inflate the economy. If all these commercial loans go sour, it will make the residential collapse look Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31059120146497467722011-08-10T13:32:31.587-07:002011-08-10T13:32:31.587-07:00Just wait until the Tresury Market bubble bursts! ...Just wait until the Tresury Market bubble bursts! It's gonna make 2007-08 look like a walk in the park!TradingStrategyLetter - Weekly Summaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06430136667577107255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47846227534869728262011-08-10T13:26:20.399-07:002011-08-10T13:26:20.399-07:00Jeff, the only thing that would please Benji is if...Jeff, the only thing that would please Benji is if Heli Ben said he was going to raise the monetary base another few trillion worthless dollars.<br /><br />The day after the markets digested Bernankes last gaff ploy to impose financial repression on the people for 2 more years, it all came crashing down.<br /><br />More monetary malfeasance is not going to do us a darn bit of good.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82744107724435083802011-08-10T13:23:37.102-07:002011-08-10T13:23:37.102-07:00Debt growth is (and has been) definately in a hype...Debt growth is (and has been) definately in a hyper-expansive mode for obviously too long. The battle of further excellerated increases vs further debt rating decreases(and reserve currency status)hangs in the balance. The Fed has more than 'violated' their purpose and responsibilities. The are in panic mode. Banks are sitting on tons of liquidity and are even charging certain depositors.TradingStrategyLetter - Weekly Summaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06430136667577107255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84356958870939447182011-08-10T13:14:18.192-07:002011-08-10T13:14:18.192-07:00It is noy current inflation benji! It is growing ...It is noy current inflation benji! It is growing inflation and the risk of further inflation through the current fed policies and massive government spending. <br /><br />I fear the left-wing has developed an obsession with destroying this country. You can have "business investment and innovation" without the "symbol" (what the heck does that even mean) of sound money.<br />Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068805988034886750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78385516786541315572011-08-10T12:49:42.254-07:002011-08-10T12:49:42.254-07:00Please, Scott Grannis:
The Fed is not in a "...Please, Scott Grannis:<br /><br />The Fed is not in a "hyper-expansive mode," or even an expansive mode. It has hit zero bound. <br /><br />To be "expansive" the Fed would have to violate the laws of financial physics, and create negative interest rates. Or go to QE, and it is not doing that. So it is not being expansive. It is sitting dead in the water. It is sidelined by Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com