tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post6009177856098243148..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Can optimism make America great again?Scott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11406301420334604052018-10-15T13:50:09.569-07:002018-10-15T13:50:09.569-07:00Mr. Grannis,
I appreciate the depth of knowledge ...Mr. Grannis,<br /><br />I appreciate the depth of knowledge from which you share your opinions. I was first introduced to your blog by a representative of Western Asset. As a practicing financial advisor, I find a few sources with the intellectual pedigree that you possess which makes me comfortable enough to share with clients. May I have your permission to share links to your blog with The Gunnyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13437749684599496730noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33446993859563393692018-09-30T11:04:29.824-07:002018-09-30T11:04:29.824-07:00WealthMony
I see you had to insult me twice in a r...WealthMony<br />I see you had to insult me twice in a row !<br /><br />Once wasn't enough !<br /><br />Mr. Grannis had this blog since 2008.<br /><br />He was bullish 2008 <br />just before the greatest<br />financial crash since the 1930s.<br /><br />He has been bullish since then.<br /><br />It appears he is always bullish.<br /><br />Those are facts.<br /><br />People like you who get The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-88223431075286217582018-09-26T19:21:13.268-07:002018-09-26T19:21:13.268-07:00Okay, Mr. Cliff Haven of Finance, I did not insult...Okay, Mr. Cliff Haven of Finance, I did not insult you in my comment, but I am going to now. You deserve it. You're a blowhard who attempts to highjack someone else's blog, effort and work with your pompous claims to superiority, and your insinuations that anyone who trusts Scott Grannis is a simpleton. For your information, Mr. know-it-all, I do my own thinking and I am not optimistic WealthMonyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04230914888633165083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87621426305400869902018-09-26T19:20:19.926-07:002018-09-26T19:20:19.926-07:00Okay, Mr. Cliff Haven of Finance, I did not insult...Okay, Mr. Cliff Haven of Finance, I did not insult you in my comment, but I am going to now. You deserve it. You're a blowhard who attempts to highjack someone else's blog, effort and work with your pompous claims to superiority, and your insinuations that anyone who trusts Scott Grannis is a simpleton. For your information, Mr. know-it-all, I do my own thinking and I am not optimistic WealthMonyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04230914888633165083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12183791606848695642018-09-26T12:05:53.816-07:002018-09-26T12:05:53.816-07:00Of course it "pays to be optimistic,
just not...Of course it "pays to be optimistic,<br />just not 100% of the time.<br /><br />Thanks for the tip on Zero Hedge<br />-- but I have been reading that website<br />for years along with your website,<br />in fact, lucky you, they are why I located<br />your website as a "counterbalance".<br /><br />Zero Hedge has stopped clock pessimism, <br />that will be wrong 8 or 9 years out of The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52847881770483655442018-09-25T17:39:28.007-07:002018-09-25T17:39:28.007-07:00All I can say is that I call it as I see it, and I...All I can say is that I call it as I see it, and I still think it pays to be optimistic. If you want to find reasons to be pessimistic, do check out Zero Hedge (https://www.zerohedge.com), whose raison d'être is being bearish all the time no matter what. I read ZH every day for that matter.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12784320014915320182018-09-25T10:22:27.812-07:002018-09-25T10:22:27.812-07:00WealthMony
This blog has existed since 2008.
The ...WealthMony<br />This blog has existed since 2008.<br /><br />The author has been bullish the whole time.<br /><br />Even just before the huge late 2008/early 2009 crash.<br /><br />Those are facts you should know, not insults.<br /><br />You should not expect to read anything but optimism here.<br /><br />That is like a stopped watch and of no great benefit<br />for readers -- if you want to be The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66610628729475605872018-09-25T10:11:36.075-07:002018-09-25T10:11:36.075-07:00I have to agree with above comments re optimistic ...I have to agree with above comments re optimistic Vs pessimistic. Not to say there's not such a thing as head in the sand but always looking for something negative is a great way to stay poor. stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17456650331216497212018-09-24T22:42:37.417-07:002018-09-24T22:42:37.417-07:00Cliff Claven of Finance, I don't think any of ...Cliff Claven of Finance, I don't think any of this blog's readers take you seriously because you're constantly trashing Scott's views. Try being more constructive in your comments and you might attract some of us to give you thoughtful consideration. There's nothing wrong with being optimistic at this time. That's the current trend, not just the mind of Scott Grannis. <brWealthMonyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04230914888633165083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-35597539733982157792018-09-24T18:09:07.471-07:002018-09-24T18:09:07.471-07:00Scott,
Off topic for this thread, but would be in...Scott,<br /><br />Off topic for this thread, but would be interested in your view on a potential world-wide dollar shortage vis-a-vis emerging market debt potential difficulties being caused by dollar denominated debt, a strong dollar and rising US interest rates.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04067053299094535546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47541466249025404912018-09-24T12:01:50.585-07:002018-09-24T12:01:50.585-07:00Optimism peaks a few weeks to a few months before ...Optimism peaks a few weeks to a few months before a recession starts.<br />You will never hear that fact here,<br />because this blog is always optimistic,<br />apparently not believing in recessions.The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-32996241748597156092018-09-24T03:13:11.294-07:002018-09-24T03:13:11.294-07:00GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta ...GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.<br /><br />The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in theWealthMonyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04230914888633165083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23129091366418487062018-09-22T07:01:28.213-07:002018-09-22T07:01:28.213-07:00Well, I am something of a worry wart.
The Federa...Well, I am something of a worry wart.<br /><br /> The Federal Reserve projects that given its plan to raise interest rates, it will reach an inverted yield curve sometime next year. That is what the central bank is projecting.<br /><br />Egads.<br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15878541945886656602018-09-19T13:10:32.359-07:002018-09-19T13:10:32.359-07:00Frankly, I am liking Donald Trump's policies m...Frankly, I am liking Donald Trump's policies more and more. I wish him well in his objectives. I am hoping his tariffs will pay dividends with better trade agreements, especially with China. Here's my worry. Consumers, businesses and investors are always the most optimistic just before a stock market crash, and there seemingly is no sign markets are about to turn negative. That's WealthMonyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04230914888633165083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28514620702863502292018-09-18T04:51:08.902-07:002018-09-18T04:51:08.902-07:00https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-twist-in-the-u-s-ta...<br />https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-twist-in-the-u-s-tariff-battle-its-helping-china-be-more-competitive-1537194771?tesla=y&mod=article_inline<br /><br />SHENZHEN, China—There is an unintended consequence of the White House’s trade battle with China: Companies in the Pearl River Delta, the center of China’s manufacturing might, are accelerating toward making higher-quality products to randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30790850010981084762018-09-17T05:07:23.810-07:002018-09-17T05:07:23.810-07:00Lotta wailing and gnashing of teeth in the comment...Lotta wailing and gnashing of teeth in the comments sections of economics blogs in the face of good news.<br />Meanwhile, regular Americans are making hay while the sun is shining. Small biz is happy and excited about the future.<br />Socialists/Democrats never quit, so the sunny growth days wont last forever.<br /><br />Its hard NOT to be optimistic. Rule of Law is being restored in governmentJohnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-26773858719638966382018-09-16T18:19:04.447-07:002018-09-16T18:19:04.447-07:00Trade wars will save some jobs, and cost many othe...Trade wars will save some jobs, and cost many others. It's that simple. Trade policy should not pick winners and losers in domestic producers, it's a losing game. Meanwhile... this is what's happening:<br /><br />https://matthewsasia.com/perspectives-on-asia/market-updates/matthews-asia-perspectives-view/article-1379/China-Takes-Leading-Role-on-Global-Trade.fs<br /><br />"In randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77253400116770796172018-09-15T08:18:05.228-07:002018-09-15T08:18:05.228-07:00Steve---
There ain't no such thing as a free ...<br /><br />Steve---<br /><br />There ain't no such thing as a free lunch.<br /><br /> If you want to consume, you gotta produce. <br /><br /> I have always been suspicious that the United States can import and borrow its way to prosperity.<br /><br /> The free traders seem to think borrowed money is the same thing as earned income.<br /><br /> Obviously there are a lot of issues of Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85941650001036634162018-09-15T04:11:12.120-07:002018-09-15T04:11:12.120-07:00"What is, is. I think America should fight fo..."What is, is. I think America should fight for every job we can get and maintain a vigorous industrial base."<br /><br />And SCREW the American consumer in the process-because after all, they cannot possibly be informed buyers. Rather, we should FORCE American consumers to BUY AMERICAN! Who cares if it's more expensive than goods purchased elsewhere. Who cares if it pushes up stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51176856402378444202018-09-14T19:57:42.810-07:002018-09-14T19:57:42.810-07:00Love the optimism.
I am an outlier on Trump tari...Love the optimism.<br /><br /> I am an outlier on Trump tariffs. Industrial location today has very little to do with the old-fashioned concept of comparative advantage and instead is primarily the result of government manipulation.<br /><br /> What is, is. I think America should fight for every job we can get and maintain a vigorous industrial base. <br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37124103453923714662018-09-13T19:55:38.112-07:002018-09-13T19:55:38.112-07:00Payaso: The one-time reduction in corporate income...Payaso: The one-time reduction in corporate income taxes that has increased equity valuations and wealth is not necessarily going to stimulate the economy, as you suggest. What makes a big difference, however, is that the after-tax rate of return on risk taking today and in the future has increased significantly. This will stimulate more risk-taking, more investment, and more productivity, and Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6521274619648677352018-09-13T19:51:59.210-07:002018-09-13T19:51:59.210-07:00Larry, re the Fed or the market setting rates: It&...Larry, re the Fed or the market setting rates: It's difficult to accept the proposition that the members of the FOMC are wiser and more capable of setting rates than the market. The Fed has made plenty of mistakes in the past, and that should be enough to conclude that having the FOMC decide rates is a bad idea.<br /><br />Although having an FOMC set rates is definitely sub-optimal, I would Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78664835298930964672018-09-13T16:29:02.546-07:002018-09-13T16:29:02.546-07:00you are all such clowns. there is no wealth effe...you are all such clowns. there is no wealth effect. with inflated returns from lowering the discount rate on all assets comes the same thing on future consumption obligations. money is an illusion. marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62192466100065507292018-09-13T10:16:56.159-07:002018-09-13T10:16:56.159-07:00Hi Scott,
I have followed you for years, Thank Yo...Hi Scott, <br />I have followed you for years, Thank You!<br />Do you think we would be better off without the Federal Reserve making rate decisions or better off with letting the free market decide rates?Larryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06597176013557270931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52033003554410500452018-09-13T08:14:27.981-07:002018-09-13T08:14:27.981-07:00Inflation starts and stops with the Fed, it doesn&...Inflation starts and stops with the Fed, it doesn't come from wages. What you're really asking is what happens if inflation starts to be a problem. Well, that's been the story of every recession for the past 50 years. The Fed needs to raise short-term rates, and they do so until the economy starts to stumble. In other words, unwanted inflation seems inevitably to lead to a recession, Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.com