tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post599488604972807462..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: The Fed is powerless to boost jobs growthScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91643243210190406662015-10-07T10:09:47.904-07:002015-10-07T10:09:47.904-07:00marmico: Thank you. I think that supports my view ...marmico: Thank you. I think that supports my view that while demographics are playing a role in the decline of the labor force participation rate, it is not a dominant role. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9923244374125210622015-10-07T06:51:25.806-07:002015-10-07T06:51:25.806-07:00Valid points, Mr Grannis. Having held Vanguard'...Valid points, Mr Grannis. Having held Vanguard's Long Term and Short Term corporate <br />bonds, I did experience yearly gains and losses as high as 18%.<br /><br />On the over hand, they could be held to maturity or sold via a stop loss..In any case,<br />the financial institution would have loan capital available that it would not have<br />otherwise.<br /><br />If siting on the board of Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2628523389724209152015-10-07T02:44:16.841-07:002015-10-07T02:44:16.841-07:00Male prime age EPOP has been in secular decline fo...Male prime age EPOP has been in secular decline for 65 years, declining at ~1% per decade. Female prime age EPOP peaked in 2000. The prime age POP peaked in 2007. 2015 EPOP is 77.25%. Holding the 2007 cycle peak prime age EPOP constant at 80% means that there are at most 2.75% x 125 million POP or 3.4 million "missing " jobs in the prime age cohort.<br /><br />https://marmicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08277071086056574486noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50857603549206672392015-10-05T18:16:53.805-07:002015-10-05T18:16:53.805-07:00Hans---thanks for cooments and I enjoy you outlook...Hans---thanks for cooments and I enjoy you outlook too. Scott Grannis is The Boss but the little guys occasionally see things in the bushes....Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83207282313508621062015-10-05T09:13:40.580-07:002015-10-05T09:13:40.580-07:00Lawyer said: Effective public policy is the produc...Lawyer said: Effective public policy is the product of compromise. That won't happen with the current makeup of the House.<br /><br />Since the Republicans took the majority in the House they have done almost nothing except compromise with this administration. That's why Boehner is leaving, and, what has this administration done to stimulate the economy? The real reason we are in this Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18190525712352815677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81525754063608407762015-10-05T08:24:09.573-07:002015-10-05T08:24:09.573-07:00Hans: Trading a 10-yr Treasury (yielding 2%) for c...Hans: Trading a 10-yr Treasury (yielding 2%) for cash equivalents (yielding 0.25%) makes sense if you worry that interest rates are going to rise. The yield you give up in this transaction (1.75%) is equivalent to a 20 bps rise in 10-yr yields. If 10-yr yields were to rise by 100 bps, the price of 10-yr Treasuries would fall by about 875 bps. In other words, even modest increases in yields would Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11400147480992286392015-10-05T07:03:34.097-07:002015-10-05T07:03:34.097-07:00Ben Jamin, another thoughtful post! You are a big ...Ben Jamin, another thoughtful post! You are a big (large) asset to <br />this website..<br /><br />I have a mountain of articles on QE..I do not have an axe to grind, as to<br />whether it has gone into the money stream or not..<br /><br />I want the facts and the truth..<br /><br />Since nobody or anybody has answered my questions (Why would anyone trade a<br />higher interest bearing note or Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59623088448528086532015-10-04T12:31:04.061-07:002015-10-04T12:31:04.061-07:00I wonder if the President has it in him during his...I wonder if the President has it in him during his last year in office to advance a set of progressive policies like a cut in corporate taxes? If the FED can't boost employment, then fiscal policy seems like the next step..?<br /><br />(This maneuver would prove unpopular with much of his Democratic party-base for sure. But it would be a significant catalyst to boost across-aisle Galactichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17800963310060756731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-58541210593388867652015-10-04T07:52:22.115-07:002015-10-04T07:52:22.115-07:00Anyone is welcome to lay out and defend opposing v...Anyone is welcome to lay out and defend opposing viewpoints here. There is always good reason to doubt what anyone has to say, especially if it runs counter to the consensus. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74147424158446425582015-10-03T18:03:51.656-07:002015-10-03T18:03:51.656-07:00tobin's q? warren's rule? at least admi...tobin's q? warren's rule? at least admit there's strong reason to doubt. marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72361589548969340292015-10-03T17:15:17.355-07:002015-10-03T17:15:17.355-07:00Copper is down about 50% from five years ago. Copper is down about 50% from five years ago. Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48018337242164153822015-10-03T12:15:46.030-07:002015-10-03T12:15:46.030-07:00I've written about CAPE several times. I think...I've written about CAPE several times. I think it has problems, not least of which is its reliance on earnings from 10 years ago to determine valuations today. I have greater confidence in the standard PE method which uses trailing 12-month earnings, but I especially like to compare current prices to the most recent NIPA measure of after-tax corporate profits. Both of these show PE ratios to Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41589369945605561132015-10-03T11:40:27.304-07:002015-10-03T11:40:27.304-07:00the CAPE is near 27. please take some fluff off o...the CAPE is near 27. please take some fluff off of thismarcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-925920189417038562015-10-03T05:11:29.518-07:002015-10-03T05:11:29.518-07:00Velocity of M2 Money Stock by St Louis Federal Res...<b>Velocity of M2 Money Stock</b> by St Louis Federal Reserve is here:<br /><br />https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V <br /><br />Data is only through Q2, 2015Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52838209069955291642015-10-03T03:33:32.951-07:002015-10-03T03:33:32.951-07:00Scott again thanks for your great information. Wh...Scott again thanks for your great information. When you have a chance can you update your charts on M2 and velocity of money. I have heard that both have recently increased. Thanks.Davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10440284139905983044noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75544871676372608832015-10-02T17:12:42.025-07:002015-10-02T17:12:42.025-07:00Ahem. "cutie" above means "QE."...Ahem. "cutie" above means "QE." <br /><br />Although maybe a discussion about cuties, rather than QE, is warranted every once in a while....<br /><br />And be careful when you post from your smartphone....Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17086627543483463282015-10-02T17:05:59.343-07:002015-10-02T17:05:59.343-07:00Well, as usual, I think this is an excellent post ...Well, as usual, I think this is an excellent post but I disagree with Scott Grannis on the results of quantitative easing.<br /><br />Suppose Scott G. has a $100,000 Treasury note. Scott decides to sell the note and Morgan Stanely securities buys it from him. Scott gets $100,000. Scott says I will spend $20,000 of this and have a great vacation, and put $40,000 into a REIT and $40,000 into Apple Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80908565536325110912015-10-02T16:02:15.185-07:002015-10-02T16:02:15.185-07:00Re baby boomers. I fully acknowledge that baby boo...Re baby boomers. I fully acknowledge that baby boomers requiring has had an impact in the participation rate. But I don't think it is the major impact. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87221644735030667422015-10-02T15:30:43.635-07:002015-10-02T15:30:43.635-07:00Oh, and I am completely supportive of lowering the...Oh, and I am completely supportive of lowering the corporate tax rate significantly, but our infrastructure is a joke and needs a massive infusion of spending. We should refinance our debt longer-term at these low rates.<br /><br />Effective public policy is the product of compromise. That won't happen with the current makeup of the House.Lawyer in NJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02920739130504981369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-1424864664976055012015-10-02T15:21:57.358-07:002015-10-02T15:21:57.358-07:00The oldest Boomers were born in 1946; they turned ...The oldest Boomers were born in 1946; they turned 63 in 2009. As Doug Short points out:<br /><br />"The employment-population ratio and participation rate will be interesting to watch going forward. The first wave of Boomers will continue to be a downward force on this ratio. The oldest of them were eligible for early retirement when the Great Recession began, and the transition of the Lawyer in NJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02920739130504981369noreply@blogger.com