tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post5873565139761025886..comments2024-03-19T02:45:37.685-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Equity prices test lows, but fear is far from its highsScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59448422746465493822009-02-18T20:31:00.000-08:002009-02-18T20:31:00.000-08:00I'm sorry Scott but all this tells me that the los...I'm sorry Scott but all this tells me that the losses will be slower than they have been in the past. In other words less volatility does not guarantee a bottom.Mark A. Sadowskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13147923641894915172noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48406029103788354182009-02-18T10:58:00.000-08:002009-02-18T10:58:00.000-08:00Steve, shutting down Congress is the best solution...Steve, shutting down Congress is the best solution I've heard so far.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28210578538850473032009-02-18T09:53:00.000-08:002009-02-18T09:53:00.000-08:00The stock market is waiting for a rallying event b...The stock market is waiting for a rallying event but it's hard for investors to rally when they don't know what this Congress will -- or won't -- do to the private sector. Anything seems possible, meaning the dreaded unknown is constantly in play. The best thing to spark a rally right now may be for Congress to adjourn for the year.Steve Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00770003896783381086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-27192181894718867042009-02-18T09:08:00.000-08:002009-02-18T09:08:00.000-08:00Vol was at an all time low before the recent colla...Vol was at an all time low before the recent collapse, no? The Global economy is teetering on a cliff. Our government has pledged some $9 trillion alone. <BR/><BR/>"In addition to the $152 billion Bush stimulus package in the spring of last year and the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) in the fall, the U.S. government has loaned, invested or committed $200 billion to nationalize Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55196795461995569222009-02-18T07:12:00.000-08:002009-02-18T07:12:00.000-08:00ddt comments may be a good explanation. See this ...ddt comments may be a good explanation. See this commentary by Hussman Funds for a more elaborate explanation of something that common sense would tell you anyway. By the way, even though the commentary is interesting, the statistical modeling seems somewhat tortured to meet the argument.<BR/><BR/>http://www.hussman.net/rsi/valuationmoderation.htm<BR/><BR/>"As higher economic volatility comes Randy Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12552423724893790184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67346827455534669702009-02-18T07:00:00.000-08:002009-02-18T07:00:00.000-08:00Check out Mark Hulbert's Column, http://www.market...Check out Mark Hulbert's Column, <BR/><BR/>http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Wall-Street-likely-fail-retest/story.aspx?guid=%7BFB91F881%2DDFC8%2D4137%2DAA09%2D97376AC65312%7DThe Therapist Is Inhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07340602598063284934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-32059021090714665702009-02-18T06:43:00.000-08:002009-02-18T06:43:00.000-08:00Or it could mean that the VIX must also retest its...Or it could mean that the VIX must also retest its November high. Where would the market be then? DK.The Therapist Is Inhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07340602598063284934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59816029035156390792009-02-18T05:25:00.000-08:002009-02-18T05:25:00.000-08:00I think a perspective is that it means investors a...I think a perspective is that it means investors are more comfortable with this level and, hence, comfortable with new lows. VIX won't increase until S&P 600 now. Takes more to shake people up these days. The folks selling now are logical sellers not panicked.MadTaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01993644388485131972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14210255756487104512009-02-17T17:23:00.000-08:002009-02-17T17:23:00.000-08:00You could be right, I don't claim to have a good u...You could be right, I don't claim to have a good understanding of this, and I'm not a market technician. But if we don't have a panic (i.e., a spike in the VIX) then why should we expect new lows? The November low came in the midst of outright panic and capitulation, but we seen none of that today. Just a drumbeat of bad news that has focused on how awful this "stimulus" package is. But really Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11336921598908207932009-02-17T15:47:00.000-08:002009-02-17T15:47:00.000-08:00Hi Scott,I'm wondering if the lack of fear ind...Hi Scott,<BR/>I'm wondering if the lack of fear indicates support or a new leg down? During this crisis, the lows have been made on increased volatility spikes. Also, it looks like the S&P highs during this bottoming process (eg. 1000, 940) have been made during spikes down in volatility. Just an observation that echos the traders mantra that true bottoms are formed out of panic and Mark Gerberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07980096984624964261noreply@blogger.com