tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post5853134270256843716..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Crude oil and gold reach new nominal highsScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-4114081295435861532010-12-06T12:31:50.935-08:002010-12-06T12:31:50.935-08:00Murp: I've been waiting for over two years for...Murp: I've been waiting for over two years for someone to ask that question. I use DeltaGraph to create the charts on my MacBook Pro laptop, and I have yet to run across anything that is able to beat that combination. DeltaGraph is also available for Windows. I use version 5.7.5 since I am not yet convinced that the newly released version 6 is stable. <br /><br />http://www.redrocksw.com/Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52933084665248352082010-12-06T12:23:31.492-08:002010-12-06T12:23:31.492-08:00Hi scott-
on an unrelated topic, what software do...Hi scott-<br /><br />on an unrelated topic, what software do you use to create those charts?<br /><br />markMurphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10055776197792181167noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59500445257883906532010-12-06T08:29:46.187-08:002010-12-06T08:29:46.187-08:00Family: Thanks for pointing that out, but let me j...Family: Thanks for pointing that out, but let me just say that at 92 bps, French CDS may be relatively high compared to history, but it still leaves France with an investment grade rating, equivalent to a small chance of default. I think there is a lot of interest in buying "tail risk" protection these days, and that could account for the somewhat elevated spreads on just about all Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69153115668556408732010-12-06T01:58:22.793-08:002010-12-06T01:58:22.793-08:00Scott,
As for one kind of risk measure which is i...Scott,<br /><br />As for one kind of risk measure which is increasing not falling, namely country risk, take a look on France CDS. While in 2008/2009 episode it topped at 100 and went down sharply six months later, the picture looks worse now. It looks like 08/09 move was just mirroring general risk aversion, while now market is slowly coming to an unpleasant conclusion of an specific risk Family Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10304538166086313103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46719375641180276352010-12-05T15:09:02.640-08:002010-12-05T15:09:02.640-08:00Bill-
Anecdotal.
I shop at Dollar Stores, and ...Bill-<br /><br />Anecdotal. <br /><br />I shop at Dollar Stores, and I amazed to buy toothpaste for $1 that used to cost me a few bucks--10 years ago. Plus I get a "free" toothbrush. BTW, if you have never shopped at Dollar Stores, you are in for a surprise. <br /><br />My cell phone has replaced three land lines. Monthly savings about $100-$150.<br /><br />Computers--fuhgetaboutit.<Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62064546492204150942010-12-05T09:42:03.939-08:002010-12-05T09:42:03.939-08:00Inflation has arrived in a significant fashion at ...Inflation has arrived in a significant fashion at the grocery store. An anecdotal example: I bought coffee for $6.65 about 4-6 months ago (on sale). The other day, I purchased the same quantity of coffee for $10.65. So, my coffee inflation index has increased by 60% in the last 6 months.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05145490918994594519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6410165923787634622010-12-04T18:53:26.443-08:002010-12-04T18:53:26.443-08:00The Eighties are an inappropriate analog in anothe...The Eighties are an inappropriate analog in another respect: demographics.<br /><br />Then, the Boomers were all about peak earnings, growing families and consumption. Now they're becoming empty-nesters and downsizing. They're growing their own produce and hunting good deals at the thrift shop.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39119931018486670632010-12-04T14:38:15.761-08:002010-12-04T14:38:15.761-08:00Steve Fulton--
I like your way of thinking--as fo...Steve Fulton--<br /><br />I like your way of thinking--as for keeping things simple, clarity in thought often results in simple (ahem, "elegant") insights. <br /><br />I suspect you are right; demand for commodities will be ferocious for next 20 years, as China and India et al demand more. Evidently, China is now buying more gold than India, while global production is going down (yes, Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10239233865118644702010-12-04T13:15:00.146-08:002010-12-04T13:15:00.146-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Steve Fultonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17201413605319579983noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13911243672538552252010-12-04T13:14:16.011-08:002010-12-04T13:14:16.011-08:00Benjamin--I certainly can't say you're wro...Benjamin--I certainly can't say you're wrong in looking for a booming equity market in the near future, but I don't think I'd use 1981 as a parallel to today. Volker raised Fed Funds from 11% in 1979 to 22% in June of 1981 and he was pretty vocal about what the game plan was--lower inflation which had been in the 13% range to close to zero. 10yr rates hit 15.5% in late 1981 and Steve Fultonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17201413605319579983noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51166985922495975712010-12-04T06:13:38.187-08:002010-12-04T06:13:38.187-08:00If the unelected entity that controls the supply a...If the unelected entity that controls the supply and thereby the value of dollars, publicly and repeatedly states that their policy is to reduce the value of the dollar relative to goods (ie: inflation is too low) it seems a relatively poor idea to bet otherwise. As to CPI, it's 40% housing costs. We all know the story there. It's fashionable to snicker about gold bugs, but when raw Steve Fultonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17201413605319579983noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40956216143980643192010-12-03T16:17:35.390-08:002010-12-03T16:17:35.390-08:00Fascinating to look at real gold prices--still wel...Fascinating to look at real gold prices--still well off from 1980s highs. If you bought gold then, you are still down, and waiting.....after 30 years waiting.....<br /><br />These charts also remind us we have been through worse. Higher inflation, higher gold prices, higher oil prices etc. Man, if you lived through the 1970s, you saw inflation, stagnation, double-digit interest rates, record Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29026081774086108042010-12-03T16:07:52.892-08:002010-12-03T16:07:52.892-08:00And there are rumors of even more than $600B from ...And there are rumors of even more than $600B from the giddy Fed. The next several years are primed for serious tectonic movements around the globe. None pretty in my opinion.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.com