tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post5835902615030190033..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: The crisis is passing (6)Scott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45554392726208601542009-02-04T10:02:00.000-08:002009-02-04T10:02:00.000-08:00mmf: I read the article and I tried hard, but I ju...mmf: I read the article and I tried hard, but I just couldn't understand what he was talking about.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50629881021710329332009-02-03T21:28:00.000-08:002009-02-03T21:28:00.000-08:00On the same theme (roubini et al), there is an int...On the same theme (roubini et al), there is an interesting article in the London Times (here is the link - <BR/>http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article5636248.ece )<BR/>which also questions the pessimism of these mavens - although it finishes with an angle I am still trying to get my head around - here is the relevant paragraph:<BR/>"Ultimately, of course, such a mmfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10891089236455200810noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6819155292704422332009-02-03T12:17:00.000-08:002009-02-03T12:17:00.000-08:00Donny: I agree with you, and that's what I've been...Donny: I agree with you, and that's what I've been hoping for (i.e., that Obama wouldn't be able to do all the things he promised/threatened to do).Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51065769194461433992009-02-03T12:16:00.000-08:002009-02-03T12:16:00.000-08:00Tom: my rationale for saying that a mega depressio...Tom: my rationale for saying that a mega depression is priced in is contained in a post last Nov. 16th:<BR/><BR/>http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2008/11/is-this-end-of-world-or-opportunity-of.html<BR/><BR/>All the money the Fed has pumped in has so far been in response to a huge increase in money demand, so it doesn't necessarily equate to a future disaster, assuming they can pull the money backScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55803438431060201612009-02-03T11:25:00.000-08:002009-02-03T11:25:00.000-08:00Great discussion guys. Scott is dead on that that...Great discussion guys. Scott is dead on that that many forecasters overstay their welcome. I might add that I lump Eric Sprott into a special category - a money man who expounds on physical things, i.e. commodities. I have written about (although I am not going to pimp my blog here) how one should be very wary when money men start pontificating about natural resources, particularly when they Donny Baseballhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08040288585224426073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15579612171176870132009-02-03T11:20:00.000-08:002009-02-03T11:20:00.000-08:00I would like to see why you think the market is pr...I would like to see why you think the market is priced for some kind of "super depression," Scott. <BR/><BR/>The basic metrics don't support that view as far as I can see, and Hussman's price to peak earnings metric is not nearly as low as it was in 1932. <BR/><BR/>Hussman agrees that valuations are now "reasonable" and should provide decent ten year gains, but it doesn't look like the market is Tom Burgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01484696976692382802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-4270151637445340132009-02-03T11:09:00.000-08:002009-02-03T11:09:00.000-08:00Thanks Scott. You are very kind and helpful, and ...Thanks Scott. You are very kind and helpful, and your input is greatly appreciated. Your work/mind/insights truly make a difference to me (and others).<BR/><BR/>The Depression II advocates remind me that Boone Pickens, Matt Simmons, Goldman Sachs, and the many commodity hedge funds were all convinced (and convinced the public) that oil was on a clear, sustainable path to $200 and higher. Whey M Millerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05762326550608359675noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41247421638222929372009-02-03T10:22:00.000-08:002009-02-03T10:22:00.000-08:00I would add that, as I pointed out a few months ag...I would add that, as I pointed out a few months ago, the markets have been priced to a deep Depression. To forecast a Depression is simply to reiterate what the market already knows. You can't act on a Depression forecast. To bet against the market you have to believe we will have either a Super-Duper Triple Depression or something that is not a Depression. I find the latter much easier to Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62695280251987097292009-02-03T09:56:00.000-08:002009-02-03T09:56:00.000-08:00M: my first answer is that if there were a "buyer'...M: my first answer is that if there were a "buyer's strike" I would expect to see Treasury yields FAR higher than they are today. They are still extraordinarily low, which means that demand for the stuff is extraordinarily strong. And if investors were running away from Treasury debt I would expect to see the dollar collapsing, but it's not--it's trading near the midpoint of hits historical rangeScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36332270119550659172009-02-03T09:18:00.000-08:002009-02-03T09:18:00.000-08:00Sorry, I meant Eric Sprott, not Splott.Sorry, I meant Eric Sprott, not Splott.M Millerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05762326550608359675noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47838558081654766192009-02-03T09:17:00.000-08:002009-02-03T09:17:00.000-08:00Scott,Great blog. How do we determine if rising r...Scott,<BR/><BR/>Great blog. How do we determine if rising rates in t bills etc..are early evidence of future economic stabilizing/recovery as opposed to the dreaded "buyers strike" suggested by those concerned that investors are running away from u.s. gov't debt?<BR/><BR/>Also, based on your years of experience and probably knowing the analysis/players in this camp, what do you make of the GreatM Millerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05762326550608359675noreply@blogger.com