tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post5691408821684366032..comments2024-03-18T13:22:06.536-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Energy price updateScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91317588669694544722012-05-10T09:13:21.100-07:002012-05-10T09:13:21.100-07:00Scott--
The dollar declined against other currenc...Scott--<br /><br />The dollar declined against other currencies, but mostly from 2000 to 2008. Since then it has roughly landed. <br /><br />But since start of 2008, oil went to $147, back down to $47 and then up to $100. <br /><br />Are you sure US domestic monetary policy has anything to do with global oil prices?Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74752704731675443462012-05-10T07:32:23.597-07:002012-05-10T07:32:23.597-07:00There are lots of ways that accommodative monetary...There are lots of ways that accommodative monetary policy can lead to higher commodity prices. Speculators can play a role by accumulating inventory, and even producers can speculate by producing less or just keeping their oil in the ground. But most importantly "easy money" means the Fed supplies more dollars to the world than the world wants, and this erodes the dollar's Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-35354154766581241432012-05-09T21:37:15.699-07:002012-05-09T21:37:15.699-07:00Well, Bill Gross (a nice guy) has been wrong about...Well, Bill Gross (a nice guy) has been wrong about just about everything lately, but here is what he says, <br /><br />Gross Says QE3 Getting Closer as Goldman Sees Easing<br />By Wes Goodman - May 9, 2012 12:22 AM PT<br />Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross and Jan Hatzius at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) say investors should prepare for additional bond purchases by the Federal Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47136631519052253512012-05-09T21:16:21.866-07:002012-05-09T21:16:21.866-07:00Scott-
If speculators do not play a role in oil p...Scott-<br /><br />If speculators do not play a role in oil prices, then by what mechanism does an accommodative monetary policy drive up oil prices (aside from creating a growth economy)? <br /><br />Richard Fisher, Dallas Fed president and a man with a perverse fixation on inflation (he even told the Japanese that inflation is a "evil rot"), says it was the Fed that caused commodities Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-434547542402167172012-05-09T20:34:06.361-07:002012-05-09T20:34:06.361-07:00All commodities started increasing from 2002 throu...All commodities started increasing from 2002 through early 2008, thanks to accommodative monetary policy, a weak dollar, and booming global economies.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41244931512356258342012-05-09T20:19:14.664-07:002012-05-09T20:19:14.664-07:00My question is from the 3rd chart.
What happened ...My question is from the 3rd chart.<br /><br />What happened around 2004 that oil prices increased so much - rising from around $35/barrel to <br />$100/barrel?bob wrighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09546025277161775062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85817431244971795082012-05-09T16:26:47.807-07:002012-05-09T16:26:47.807-07:00^
Disclaimer for above: Last year might have been ...^<br />Disclaimer for above: Last year might have been an outlier for the last week of April in unadjusted claims. Currently it looks like the pattern from 2010 is repeating, which, if it does, gives us an unadjusted decline of about 3.7%, and the seasonal factor for last week would then give us a headline number in the mid-360,000's.<br /><br />In either case there would have to be a large Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81200047307610220292012-05-09T15:58:33.704-07:002012-05-09T15:58:33.704-07:00If unadjusted initial claims last week declined fr...If unadjusted initial claims last week declined from the previous week by about the same amount as they did the corresponding week last year (which is no guarantee, just saying "if"), tomorrow's initial claims report should print an adjusted number in the low-mid 340,000's. Even if the unadjusted number is about the same as the previous week, the headline number will still be inAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3484849084089464982012-05-09T15:52:53.479-07:002012-05-09T15:52:53.479-07:00We have taken a position in DTO today.
An excelle...We have taken a position in DTO today.<br /><br />An excellent article by the author, with a reasonable explanation...<br /><br />Hans4katzzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12362478491988290924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55590391102686400192012-05-09T13:04:13.333-07:002012-05-09T13:04:13.333-07:00Not that I think it will be enough to push the eco...Not that I think it will be enough to push the economy in to a recession, but keep in mind pipelines from Cushing to the Gulf are reversing June 1. I would expect WTI to move towards Brent, rather than vice-versa.PerformanceSpeaksForItselfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02710385857829942329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80040649207376148142012-05-09T13:00:39.728-07:002012-05-09T13:00:39.728-07:00This chart reveals why the inflation-hysteria arou...This chart reveals why the inflation-hysteria around oil prices is misplaced. <br /><br />Unlike equities, or perhaps gold, there is an upper limit on oil prices. Supply and demand kick in, as well as substitution and alternative fuels. <br /><br />One q: How is it people say speculators cannot influence the price of oil, unless the Fed is accommodative, in which case speculators will drive theBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com