tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post5666752143422228417..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Thoughts on market crashesScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54965110630509196282020-03-11T17:06:58.656-07:002020-03-11T17:06:58.656-07:00In a strange way, it's a shame that the virus ...In a strange way, it's a shame that the virus added such a variable to the election. We will now never know if (at this time) the Democrats could actually nominate a socialist that wants to tear down the most successful country in history, or if it was mostly media savvy activists making noise and the Democrat voters would have rejected Bernie outright. <br /><br />Further... if he had been randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78009380072527340872020-03-11T16:43:32.241-07:002020-03-11T16:43:32.241-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79798266056903787642020-03-11T16:04:16.853-07:002020-03-11T16:04:16.853-07:00One could argue that what is driving the market do...One could argue that what is driving the market down is not the fear that Bernie might become president, but rather the fear that a virus-weakened economy might doom Trump's chances of re-election. Any and all of the many Democrats who entered the race who might win in November would pose an existential threat to the U.S. economy, because they all favor higher taxes, more regulation, and a Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48588487785897837972020-03-11T14:57:43.439-07:002020-03-11T14:57:43.439-07:00Randy, that opinion is, with all due respect, nons...Randy, that opinion is, with all due respect, nonsense. Who knows how much lower the market would be if CRAZY Bernie was leading? stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74774408803614789132020-03-11T10:05:15.100-07:002020-03-11T10:05:15.100-07:00Also... Biden trounced Sanders in yesterdays conte...Also... Biden trounced Sanders in yesterdays contests. According to 538 Biden is now virtually assured the nomination. Since the market is tanking again, I suppose we have to discount the idea that the market crash was in a large part driven by fear of Sanders.randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76411927758550294672020-03-11T09:58:05.216-07:002020-03-11T09:58:05.216-07:00Adam, $1 trillion is roughly 4.5% of US GDP (~$22 ...Adam, $1 trillion is roughly 4.5% of US GDP (~$22 trillion). Before the virus, nominal GDP growth this year was projected to be almost $1 trillion. So if the virus erases $1 trillion from this year's GDP, we will almost surely have a recession.<br /><br />That's the bad news. The good news, possibly, is that the market today seems to be pricing in the likelihood of a recession.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73849952288854067292020-03-11T09:55:55.465-07:002020-03-11T09:55:55.465-07:00Benjamin - exactly right. Just disgusting.Benjamin - exactly right. Just disgusting.randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20513988711370197542020-03-11T09:55:10.215-07:002020-03-11T09:55:10.215-07:00Link is an infographic showing different death rat...Link is an infographic showing different death rates from Spanish flu in Philadelphia versus St. Louis as a consequence of social distancing.<br /><br />https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/T4QT56LWDRGMFKH45D7Q3RACAE.jpg<br /><br />Can we take these curves as proxy for economic impact? If so, then clear communication from the government and media outlets would go Charliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04163738909524521887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46232499229528774152020-03-11T09:29:17.042-07:002020-03-11T09:29:17.042-07:00Wallop caused recession not likely. Fisher says th...Wallop caused recession not likely. Fisher says that total damage for US GDP is max. 1 trn USD. This is 1/4 of the yearly GDP growth.Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00325788638301535314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12257401749472537122020-03-11T08:45:00.178-07:002020-03-11T08:45:00.178-07:00Thank you for your years of valuable commentary.
O...Thank you for your years of valuable commentary.<br />On a side note - I, and others, would love to hear the "story for another day".<br />You should document your 1987 experience.minnesota nicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00727666702361173951noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-88188418985689777702020-03-11T07:58:15.055-07:002020-03-11T07:58:15.055-07:00Great blogging. Wait for one more shoe to drop, an...Great blogging. Wait for one more shoe to drop, and then I think we see a buying opportunity.<br /><br />I am deeply disappointed that the Trump Administration's good idea, that is a payroll tax holiday until the end of the year, has not been well received by Congress.<br /><br />I guess the Donks are against Trump's tax cuts cuz they want him to lose in November, and the GOP prefers tax Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63784169470731920912020-03-10T20:30:59.025-07:002020-03-10T20:30:59.025-07:00Charlie. Most of that is in your imagination.
At ...Charlie. Most of that is in your imagination.<br />At least I now understand where you are coming from.Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55873070205119627902020-03-10T18:12:34.089-07:002020-03-10T18:12:34.089-07:00Hahahahahaha you are very funny, you know when the...Hahahahahaha you are very funny, you know when the tops and bottoms of the market are going to happen? You must be the worlds most wealthy person then, hell since you know all the tops/bottoms and know the proper and never changing "cycle" I suppose your getting calls from Goldman sachs and jp Morgan all day every day begging for you to work for them!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13951616108862423895noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-1446775876716771272020-03-10T18:05:21.984-07:002020-03-10T18:05:21.984-07:00How did fauci contradict trump?How did fauci contradict trump?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13951616108862423895noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18561077003788550102020-03-10T18:00:47.020-07:002020-03-10T18:00:47.020-07:00We're already @ 1.25% interest, u think cuttin...We're already @ 1.25% interest, u think cutting to zero will fix this? We have been near zero for over a decade, the fed it now pumping QE 4 to the sum of billions a month into the markets, changing theire rules and raising theire ceilings ever higher, that dosent scream "what a great and healthy market). Top that with the absolutely massive economic damage of multiple countries being Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13951616108862423895noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81036447568676681092020-03-10T17:10:01.054-07:002020-03-10T17:10:01.054-07:00Man I totally agree with you about the media hypin...Man I totally agree with you about the media hyping anything that could make trump look bad, he could save 1000 babies from a burning building and they wouldent mention it. I like your comment. Although I'm in Washington State where the virus is the worst in the USA and I feel the media is really down playing this virus, way more people have it here than are reported, I personally know peopleAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13951616108862423895noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37716789582815688642020-03-10T16:55:13.717-07:002020-03-10T16:55:13.717-07:00The fact that rates are so near zero combined with...The fact that rates are so near zero combined with the fact that the fed is pumping billions into the market on a monthly basis does not say to me "this is a healthy economy" infact it suggests quite the opposite, and both of those factors were at play before the corona virus. Couple that with the fact that the virus is taking a major toll on the entire worlds economy's and I'm Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13951616108862423895noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-1054432544065930262020-03-10T10:39:50.228-07:002020-03-10T10:39:50.228-07:00Careful use of licorice root and/or hemp root can ...Careful use of licorice root and/or hemp root can help protect one against the novel Coronavirus.<br />Market has been long due for a correction, after being politically propped/trumped up for around 2 years now. Market will reach a long-term bottom in its 18-year cycle around November 2027. It reached its long-term top in August of 2018. The rest since then has been a propped-up bubble which is Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15828971233441673264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54105169608885436512020-03-10T08:37:39.713-07:002020-03-10T08:37:39.713-07:00Here are some points of misinformation that we hav...Here are some points of misinformation that we have known, for more than a month, to be false. The message from the government is, well, mixed. Often you hear the exact point of misinformation followed (sometimes in the same briefing) by a correction from an expert. Sometimes the contradiction is softened with a technical sounding qualifier (e.g., "deployable" vaccine), but this only Charliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04163738909524521887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63146674488394073782020-03-10T03:24:12.246-07:002020-03-10T03:24:12.246-07:00Charlie: What info did Dr. Fauci contradict?Charlie: What info did Dr. Fauci contradict?Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31062526543497611022020-03-09T16:38:13.572-07:002020-03-09T16:38:13.572-07:00The irony here is that:
IF scientists are success...The irony here is that:<br /><br />IF scientists are successful in communicating reality about reducing transmission and encounters, then it won't be a disaster at all (see my post above) and scientists will take a big hit for "over-hyping" the situation.<br /><br />IF, however, others are more successful in communicating a lot of nonsense, then it will indeed be disaster.<br /><br Charliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04163738909524521887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17317070551251655042020-03-09T15:15:04.025-07:002020-03-09T15:15:04.025-07:00A thought: never before, at least in modern times,...A thought: never before, at least in modern times, has the world been so keenly aware of a pandemic threat and at such an early stage. Many people, including myself and my extended family, are taking precautions we never dreamed of before, such as canceling major trips. Several countries are taking measures that would have been though beyond extreme. With any luck, this whole thing could prove toScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15978786291385004742020-03-09T14:49:22.522-07:002020-03-09T14:49:22.522-07:00On the science side here is a good twitter feed to...On the science side here is a good twitter feed to follow: https://twitter.com/trvrb. Bedford is genomics faculty at UW and Fred Hutch.<br /><br />Also, here is a basic math refresher on exponential growth and logistic curves: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg. Note the point made in the last minute: if we reduced transmission per encounter by 2/3, we could reduce expected worldwide Charliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04163738909524521887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-43542556073749509272020-03-09T11:12:27.882-07:002020-03-09T11:12:27.882-07:00thanks for taking time to send a pep talk. i imag...thanks for taking time to send a pep talk. i imagine W. Buffett has backed the truck up today. <br /><br />put some cash to work today with AMLP yielding 16%. surely not all of the pipeline companies in this partnership will quit paying dividends. in a month i'll be kicking my ass for buying, or for being too timid.JDonleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00556948063590125297noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22902411902989190842020-03-09T10:53:10.940-07:002020-03-09T10:53:10.940-07:00I’m not sure this is all about virus. At all.
Th...I’m not sure this is all about virus. At all.<br /><br />The price war in oil is brutalizing sectors and dislodging trades in the Treasury markets.<br />Who will default?? Is it just Putin ginning up nationalism?<br />Half-point spreads between bid and ask in Treasuries. Unreal.<br />No bids this am for the 30 year futures.<br />Anecdotal news of shrinking credit lines<br /><br />The SPLV-TLT Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.com