tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post5426683153515141524..comments2024-03-18T13:22:06.536-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Walls of worry updateScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-42783404299248992972016-12-11T08:44:31.631-08:002016-12-11T08:44:31.631-08:00Excellent, thanks again !Excellent, thanks again !Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86551731847759115342016-12-11T08:06:55.209-08:002016-12-11T08:06:55.209-08:00The $20 trillion figure that people love to toss a...The $20 trillion figure that people love to toss around is completely misleading. It in includes $4.5 trillion of "intragovernmental debt." That is mostly money that has been "borrowed" from the social security system. It is simply double-counting. Taken as a whole, the federal government owes only $14.5 trillion. Within the federal government's accounts is an accounting Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47480118042767114552016-12-11T04:16:26.453-08:002016-12-11T04:16:26.453-08:00PS. Scott, you said "The direct federal debt ...PS. Scott, you said "The direct federal debt that cannot be avoided is roughly $14.5 trillion" .. Since most people talk about the headline figure of c. $20 trillion, how risky do you then regard the remaining $5.5 trillion ? Thanks.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-27360508619424872332016-12-10T19:02:23.985-08:002016-12-10T19:02:23.985-08:00If my predictions deflation in stocks, bonds, real...If my predictions deflation in stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities are true (and I pray that I am wrong), then China will soon be buying up America for pennies on the dollar. For those who say such things as the size of the national debt does not matter, consider the totality of everything else that is happening right before our eyes: $20 trillion debt; municipal bankruptcies; McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37496217304768833702016-12-10T09:46:39.612-08:002016-12-10T09:46:39.612-08:00As usual Scott you have provided an excellent (and...As usual Scott you have provided an excellent (and succinct) counterpoint to the doom and gloom predictions, many thanks.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72930521503693176002016-12-10T09:38:55.775-08:002016-12-10T09:38:55.775-08:00Re our national debt: The direct federal debt that...Re our national debt: The direct federal debt that cannot be avoided is roughly $14.5 trillion, or about 75% of GDP. That's a lot, but it's not lethal, and for now it's not growing much relative to GDP. (Think of a family with four kids and parents in prime working age: if their total debt, including mortgage, were 75% of their annual income they wouldn't have a care in the world.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-4012227834940138462016-12-10T07:49:30.609-08:002016-12-10T07:49:30.609-08:00George Washington's Farewell Address, 1796: &q...George Washington's Farewell Address, 1796: "... avoiding likewise the accumulation of debt, not only by shunning occasions of expense, but by vigorous exertion in time of peace to discharge the debts which unavoidable wars may have occasioned, not ungenerously throwing upon posterity the burden which we ourselves ought to bear."Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20162337443850718932016-12-10T07:11:38.673-08:002016-12-10T07:11:38.673-08:00Hi Scott, I just watched a presentation by Mark Le...Hi Scott, I just watched a presentation by Mark Levin on LevinTV about America's $200 trillion total national and federal debt (and liabilities). I know you have commented on this before but can you just state again, in capsule form, why you don't think this kind of debt will eventually sink the US ? (Not a rhetorical question, I am genuinely keen to hear your view). Many thanks.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51347647283939572422016-12-08T01:09:36.191-08:002016-12-08T01:09:36.191-08:00Hi Scott, thanks for your comments. Re. China, it ...Hi Scott, thanks for your comments. Re. China, it would be great to have your thoughts. As far as I understand, a country has basically 3 economic tools (interest rates, capital controls and exchange rate) and you can only control 2 of them. On the other hand, historically it has been very hard for countries to acoid a hard landing when reserves drop by 30% in a row and China is approaching that Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09246297615630310640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39603016214896548172016-12-07T16:23:35.591-08:002016-12-07T16:23:35.591-08:00Any sensible person might have reservations about ...Any sensible person might have reservations about Donald Trump.<br /><br />But I am heartened to see an American president speak mostly about business, and not entanglements in foreign crapholes.<br /><br />If Trump puts American businesses on a pedestal...well, we have seen worse and recently too....<br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76020592454140691462016-12-07T15:32:57.645-08:002016-12-07T15:32:57.645-08:00Re China: The latest release of China's forex ...Re China: The latest release of China's forex holdings (as of Nov. 30) shows total holdings of $3.05 trillion. That's down about $1 trillion from the high of $3.99 trillion (June '14). You may have your numbers scrambled. <br /><br />In any event, China is indeed experiencing capital flight, and that explains why the yuan has been falling. It looks like the central bank is not Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81150542331770697982016-12-07T15:12:34.968-08:002016-12-07T15:12:34.968-08:00Yeah the market is on "fire" well financ...Yeah the market is on "fire" well financials are at least. With forward earnings of 20x, market is pricing 30% increase in earnings. Seems a bit optimistic to me! Trump si getting the "bump" but then what.<br /><br />On a side note things in China are looking difficult, the BoC is clamping down on capital flight, its not entirely clear if capital is afraid or simply lookingFrozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.com