tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post5418666859867310077..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Housing starts are truly impressiveScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69581668020886618162020-02-28T00:30:14.191-08:002020-02-28T00:30:14.191-08:00Thank you very much for providing important inform...Thank you very much for providing important information<br /> <a href="http://www.stovcdik.com/" rel="nofollow">http://www.stovcdik.com/</a><br /> <a href="http://www.privacylzone.com/" rel="nofollow">http://www.privacylzone.com/</a><br /> <a href="http://www.postgolden.com/" rel="nofollow">http://www.postgolden.com/</a><br /> <a href="http://www.pregolden.com/" rel="nofollow">http://BATUhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01255291381111813820noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-92000421790303127082020-02-27T06:34:38.367-08:002020-02-27T06:34:38.367-08:002900 area on S&P has "support" becau...2900 area on S&P has "support" because the the October unfilled gap, and the semi-log moving averages.<br />Worth a shot at selling some TLT at that point, and leaning into broad stock indexes.<br /><br />Markets bottom once we fully understand "the problem". Nothing has to be fixed for markets to bottom. On the contrary....Once the problem is understood, markets know Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2658376577348358542020-02-26T14:44:53.626-08:002020-02-26T14:44:53.626-08:00comparing balance sheet ("stock" or poin...comparing balance sheet ("stock" or point in time) to cash flow or income statements items (flows) is standard trade in business and industry analysis and used alongside other analysis helps tell a bigger picture so it's not useless to consider other leverage factors when assessing total burden. <br /><br />still i didn't come here as a housing bear just curious about that graphLong Cast Advisershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13731550239184386639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12028761477216150872020-02-26T13:03:44.601-08:002020-02-26T13:03:44.601-08:0080,000 people died in the US last year from the fl...80,000 people died in the US last year from the flu.<br />Perspective <br /><br />Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85601625725934468942020-02-25T10:52:11.783-08:002020-02-25T10:52:11.783-08:00John, re why I use a semi-log scale for the first ...John, re why I use a semi-log scale for the first two charts. The data range appears to be relatively small, but in actuality the changes in the level of housing starts is large in percentage terms (e.g., the change in starts from 0.5 million to 2 million is an increase of 500%!). A semi-log scale makes it easier to appreciate the magnitude of the changes.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29827433023791382272020-02-25T10:42:06.496-08:002020-02-25T10:42:06.496-08:00Just waiting for your favour panic chart, ie. VIX/...Just waiting for your favour panic chart, ie. VIX/10yAdamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00325788638301535314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49076442114736792362020-02-25T09:00:46.259-08:002020-02-25T09:00:46.259-08:00Re Long Cast Survivors: the difference between the...Re Long Cast Survivors: the difference between the two charts highlights why it is so important to avoid comparing a stock (e.g., the outstanding amount of credit) to a flow (eg disposable income). Doing that results in a meaningless conclusion. My chart correctly compares a flow (monthly payments) to a flow (disposable income). Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60632439235572074252020-02-25T06:01:20.936-08:002020-02-25T06:01:20.936-08:00Gosh JBD, which is it? The Chinese and their plot...Gosh JBD, which is it? The Chinese and their plots for germ warfare or the Deep State never Trumpers? The left feeds on manic manufactured righteousness and virtue signaling and the right feeds on paranoia and fear. We've collectively forgotten how bad things can get - the Spanish Flu that killed maybe 100 million; race riots; vietnam riots; 2500 bombings in about 18 months in the 1970s; randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78451740939057408972020-02-24T19:11:36.532-08:002020-02-24T19:11:36.532-08:00Lets talk fear, and see if its "mongering&quo...Lets talk fear, and see if its "mongering":<br /><br />So the only lab in China that has technology to house the coronavirus "safely" is in the Wuhan province, on the banks of the mighty Yangtze.<br />And the workers there routinely sell lab animals to the local meat market after they have been experimented on and die.<br />No word on how this deadly virus could have escaped Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45733399597178018602020-02-24T17:19:32.246-08:002020-02-24T17:19:32.246-08:00Oooooof. COVID-19.
Unfortunately, mainstream medi...Oooooof. COVID-19.<br /><br />Unfortunately, mainstream media now makes a practice of sensationalizing everything, and Americans have become increasingly susceptible to fear-mongering, on all fronts.<br /><br />The economy could take a hit in 2020, particularly anything related to travel, hospitality, or retail.<br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7532760597509380312020-02-24T14:54:56.301-08:002020-02-24T14:54:56.301-08:00Fed data does not appear to be as a % of disposabl...Fed data does not appear to be as a % of disposable income but rather on an absolute basis.stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29569202972314886132020-02-24T09:21:25.602-08:002020-02-24T09:21:25.602-08:00S&P Low Vol index continues to shine.
Up 4% YT...S&P Low Vol index continues to shine.<br />Up 4% YTD (total return) while regular S&P is barely positive as I write this.<br /><br />Long Treasury bond up over 11% YTD<br />REITs and Utilities holding up well.<br /><br />Apple may get buyable again!!<br /><br />Orange Man BadJohnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-35739323585532913752020-02-24T07:59:12.971-08:002020-02-24T07:59:12.971-08:00found your blog through a link on seeking alpha. t...found your blog through a link on seeking alpha. thank you for sharing. re: chart 6 i have a very different sense of the household burden using consumer credit / personal income. It shows a very different conclusion, that we are way outside historical norms and that the consumer remains over levered. Here's the graph from FRED data ... <br /><br />https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qdwd<brLong Cast Advisershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13731550239184386639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28734403494380799082020-02-23T10:52:05.245-08:002020-02-23T10:52:05.245-08:00Mr. Grannis:
Why do you use semi-log scale for the...Mr. Grannis:<br />Why do you use semi-log scale for the first two charts? The data range (0.5-3 million) is within an order of magnitude. Thanks.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50138206884037284242020-02-20T05:01:39.626-08:002020-02-20T05:01:39.626-08:00Wow amazing. Looks very healthy and strong Wow amazing. Looks very healthy and strong Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01261213308707778791noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79966535725152734772020-02-20T04:43:07.864-08:002020-02-20T04:43:07.864-08:00Housing has legs too. Housing starts are well belo...Housing has legs too. Housing starts are well below long-term norms. We could have a 20-year-long development boom along the West Coast...but you would have to seriously soften up on property zoning. <br /><br />Not sure about freight volumes though--- <br /><br />https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/cass-freight-indexBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34695414147290094362020-02-19T22:32:46.988-08:002020-02-19T22:32:46.988-08:00Dear CBP. Love your blog and emails! Thanks for p...Dear CBP. Love your blog and emails! Thanks for posting! <br /><br />Eyeballing the Mortgage Delinquencies chart it seems that when delinquencies fall before US equity market slumps (i.e. 2000 and 2008). Any correlation in the long term? The chain of thought as follows: mortgage delinquencies decrease as people have money and are employed. When people have money they also buy stocks. (value Michael McGaughy / 麥德安https://www.blogger.com/profile/10681507678046429348noreply@blogger.com