tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post5395715751800386043..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: GDP surprise: inflationScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60836274853609837782009-05-02T22:03:00.000-07:002009-05-02T22:03:00.000-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Former Deaconhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16457394008777655997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22576644069451026112009-04-30T09:06:00.000-07:002009-04-30T09:06:00.000-07:00Mark: For the three months ended March, the core P...Mark: For the three months ended March, the core PCE deflator rose at an annualized 2.3% rate. That's what I was referring to, not the change in the quarterly average.<br /><br />Most economists probably do what you say, but I don't, and I think they will be proven wrong.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84571035710937090842009-04-30T08:40:00.000-07:002009-04-30T08:40:00.000-07:00Scott,
I beg your pardon,I completely forgot that...Scott, <br />I beg your pardon,I completely forgot that the Fed is now completely staffed with genius caliber people. <br /><br />I would however love to see some transparency from the Fed, maybe they could tell us what the dollar will be worth when they are through with their Q-easing.<br /><br />PS I like your sense of humor!davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01173750820649272172noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68597575798787880022009-04-30T08:37:00.000-07:002009-04-30T08:37:00.000-07:00Scott,
The March core PCE results were embargoed u...Scott,<br />The March core PCE results were embargoed until this morning (8:30 AM EDT). PCE excluding energy and food averaged 118.195 in the first quarter 2009 versus 117.749 in the fourth quarter 2008 (Table 9):<br /><br />http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases<br />/national/pi/2009/xls/pi0309.xls<br /><br />The percentage increase was thus 0.379% and this works out to an increase of 1.524% at an Mark A. Sadowskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13147923641894915172noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80308617407512612972009-04-30T07:57:00.000-07:002009-04-30T07:57:00.000-07:00Mark: the PCE Core measure of inflation was 2.3% a...Mark: the PCE Core measure of inflation was 2.3% annualized in the first quarter by my calculation (I'm using the monthly data). I think that is remarkable given how weak the economy has been for the past six months. I think it is consistent with the fact that monetary policy has been very accommodative. It does not lend any support to the theory that inflation is a function of the economy's Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66861642286978896632009-04-30T07:50:00.000-07:002009-04-30T07:50:00.000-07:00dr j: I try to post my holdings when I make any co...dr j: I try to post my holdings when I make any comment on the attractiveness of an asset class or a particular stock. Assuming we get a moderate increase in inflation, this will prove very bad for Treasury bonds. TIPS should hold their own, though real yields might rise somewhat. The payoff for TIPS will come with time as the CPI rises; I wouldn't count on price gains at this point. High qualityScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59764015901613449702009-04-30T07:45:00.000-07:002009-04-30T07:45:00.000-07:00Brian: rising inflation is not inevitable yet. But...Brian: rising inflation is not inevitable yet. But the odds are definitely in favor I think. Gold at $900 is a good indicator of higher inflation. The dollar is not strong, even though it's up from its lows. The TIPS/Treasury spread is rising, but does not yet predict a new inflation high. The Fed has a huge job ahead, draining liquidity as the market's demand for liquidity declines. They will beScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80821076709869468092009-04-29T18:10:00.000-07:002009-04-29T18:10:00.000-07:00Scott,
I noticed the odd GDP deflator result mysel...Scott,<br />I noticed the odd GDP deflator result myself. All the odder still when one considers the following. There are 14 subcomponents to the GDP implicit price deflator and 10 out of the 14 were negative in the first quarter. The other four, services (+1.1%). equipment and software (+0.5%), national defense (+2.4%) and federal nondefense (+2.7%) were all less than the aggregate implicit Mark A. Sadowskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13147923641894915172noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51758001897658686632009-04-29T18:01:00.000-07:002009-04-29T18:01:00.000-07:00Is it possible for you to post your holdings as yo...Is it possible for you to post your holdings as you did today? I found it helpful. I have just started buying the DBC and DBA as a way to benefit from inflation. I also use a fund that hedges with TIPS and is short the 30 year treasury. Given your experience in your previous life with WAM, what fixed income categories, if any, look to hold value at this time? What would you recommend for dr. jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13109493108309557229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78016753730139010262009-04-29T10:06:00.000-07:002009-04-29T10:06:00.000-07:00dave, you seem to be forgetting that we have brill...dave, you seem to be forgetting that we have brilliant people running Treasury and the Fed, and surely they will be smart enough to figure out how to withdraw the trillions they have injected at just the right time to avoid any inflation problems. (just kidding of course)<br /><br />I fully expect that the Fed will make a mistake (yet another in a series) going forward, since what they are likelyScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77122092190149536432009-04-29T10:04:00.000-07:002009-04-29T10:04:00.000-07:00Hi Scott -
The Dick Morris column that Drudge li...Hi Scott -<br /> <br />The Dick Morris column that Drudge links to today predicts inflation rise - do you think this is inevitable? Perhaps just moderate inflation? How do we now compare to the economic models of Argentina and others?Brian Hhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14869071526968957308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23244957468815790272009-04-29T09:56:00.000-07:002009-04-29T09:56:00.000-07:00Scott,
I too share your concern about inflation.A ...Scott,<br />I too share your concern about inflation.A $900 gold price signals that inflationary pressures are already in the system, once the economy and demand picks up the measures of inflation are going to move up at an alarming pace.<br /><br />The problem with quantitative easing is deciding when to stop.What signal does the FED have that will tell them when they have gone too far in one davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01173750820649272172noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38105267550877930252009-04-29T09:30:00.000-07:002009-04-29T09:30:00.000-07:00Hi Scott,
Thanks as always for your great blog. I...Hi Scott,<br />Thanks as always for your great blog. I greatly appreciate your economic analysis and charts, and I sure enjoy your photos and Argentina travel logs.<br /><br />I have a request for you if you would be so kind: Would you please provide a tutorial about the various measures of inflation? For example, the GDP/CPE deflator and CPI seem to be track each other fairly well, but these Mark Gerberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07980096984624964261noreply@blogger.com