tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post5353263903231051613..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: A moderate case of the jittersScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-56649065532451743762011-06-06T08:32:08.895-07:002011-06-06T08:32:08.895-07:00I'm not trying to argue here for whether this ...I'm not trying to argue here for whether this indicator is leading or lagging. Rather, I'm arguing that the level of concern that it is registering is not particularly high, and does not match all the hoopla and bearishness that seems to be out there. So the market is probably overreacting and oversold at this point.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67411477068622687832011-06-06T08:04:14.191-07:002011-06-06T08:04:14.191-07:00Is this leading or lagging vs GDP, equity market p...Is this leading or lagging vs GDP, equity market performance etc, assuming thats what you're trying to anticipiate.<br /><br />Because if you look at the chart, the same low readings were evident pre 2008, pre 2000 crash, pre LTCM etc etc. If anything, it shows complancency.Alihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14622836247655831346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31872679191746929812011-06-02T07:57:20.739-07:002011-06-02T07:57:20.739-07:00Dr W. Only so long as the genie doesn't escape...Dr W. Only so long as the genie doesn't escape the bottle but my belief is the Federal Reserve has lost control of this rudderless ship. We are in new territory where the Fed can make a fresh round of new mistakes.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17350813976669905792011-06-01T15:25:29.218-07:002011-06-01T15:25:29.218-07:00Bill: recessions don't just happen out of the ...Bill: recessions don't just happen out of the blue, and the economy doesn't turn south unless it faces some pretty strong headwinds. Monetary policy is not tight enough to be a serious headwind, but easy money is sapping confidence so it is contributing to slow growth. Fiscal policy is not stimulative at all, since it is sapping most of the economy's strength. But it's only goingScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86858380289258543232011-06-01T15:08:07.374-07:002011-06-01T15:08:07.374-07:00Hi Public Library, a $3-5 trillion QEIII would not...Hi Public Library, a $3-5 trillion QEIII would not be a nail in my coffin -- not at all -- those who hold overvalued assets such as bonds or government pensions will dislike a QEIII -- those with undervalued assets such as reliable (and local) rent-earning real estate and dividend-paying stocks will love QEIII -- therein likes the true paradox of the US economy by the way...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64005889831659116402011-06-01T14:33:19.524-07:002011-06-01T14:33:19.524-07:00Nothing beats a gold standard so long as it is not...Nothing beats a gold standard so long as it is not stymied by the government.<br /><br />Why we charge 7-12 men beholden to the banks to manage our money is beyond my ability to comprehend. <br /><br />Dr W. QEIII is a nail in the coffin, not a divine offering from the Gods.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33288542991437768642011-06-01T14:17:11.919-07:002011-06-01T14:17:11.919-07:00The Federal Reserve would be wise to announce a $3...The Federal Reserve would be wise to announce a $3-5 trillion QEIII plan immediately -- the effects of such an announcement would be spectacular for the markets, and the Fed can always curtail QEIII well ahead of the target amount once the economy turns around -- QEIII appears imminent and quite necessary at this point...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39000659264244623712011-06-01T14:15:07.292-07:002011-06-01T14:15:07.292-07:00Scott,
It sure seems like it's been a while s...Scott,<br /><br />It sure seems like it's been a while since we've had an uptrend in any of the important data. Doesn't this signal a possible recession?Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.com