tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post5298131142055487706..comments2024-03-19T02:45:37.685-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Fear is unlikely to kill the US economyScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger47125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24408196665818932652010-05-10T11:08:26.239-07:002010-05-10T11:08:26.239-07:00Bob,
How cool! I am GREEN.
FWIW Stratfor, the g...Bob,<br /><br />How cool! I am GREEN. <br /><br />FWIW Stratfor, the geopolitical thinktank I read is sky high on Turkey's longer term prospects. They have Turkey tagged for great things in the future. <br /><br />I would be interested in your observations of life there as well as your friends' perspectives. <br /><br />Give us a post or two while you are there. Have a GREAT trip.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72456349615775733482010-05-10T10:01:54.544-07:002010-05-10T10:01:54.544-07:00I have been to Turkey many times. I used ask my T...I have been to Turkey many times. I used ask my Turkish friends why they wanted to join that socialist mess called the EU? I told them they would be better off joining the North American Free Trade Zone :)). Turkey is going through a bit of paradoxical change. They are not so quick to want to join the EU and their government is embracing a more fundemental Islamic viewpoint. But at the same Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18190525712352815677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23965705055766524092010-05-10T09:41:37.083-07:002010-05-10T09:41:37.083-07:00Congrats John. You bought when everybody was scare...Congrats John. You bought when everybody was scared.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-26350428764803478982010-05-10T09:18:17.654-07:002010-05-10T09:18:17.654-07:00Benj,
Thanks. But 'calling it' alone is ...Benj, <br /><br />Thanks. But 'calling it' alone is a little like kissing my sister (if I had one - I don't). But you get the idea. <br /><br />What blows my dress up is...I bought on friday!Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51417347594147050342010-05-10T08:56:15.789-07:002010-05-10T08:56:15.789-07:00Well, John called it. Big rally today. EU action ...Well, John called it. Big rally today. EU action on Greek and other debts seems to "fix" problem for now.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-8252289385044312132010-05-10T08:47:14.717-07:002010-05-10T08:47:14.717-07:00Benj,
I don't think Greece's budget probl...Benj,<br /><br />I don't think Greece's budget problems are going to be easily solved. I believe the jury is still out on whether they have the political will to endure the economic hardship that awaits them. They need a growing economy AND deep and painful budget cuts to have a decent shot at coming out of this in a reasonable time. They also need a better tax collection system (as you Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18724810452128331042010-05-10T08:02:40.393-07:002010-05-10T08:02:40.393-07:00I think Bennett's ouster is a good thing. Sure...I think Bennett's ouster is a good thing. Surely there are good people out there who are more conservative, and more in tune with Tea Party ideals. Bennett had been in the job way too long; that's a bad thing in itself. There's a lot to be said for Term Limits and citizen politicians. The Tea Party has burnished its credentials with this, and will gain new respect.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36358251507324718852010-05-10T07:58:43.060-07:002010-05-10T07:58:43.060-07:00Redbud: I understand your concerns. The world is f...Redbud: I understand your concerns. The world is far from perfect and policies have been bad for some time now. But there is still room for optimism. Things could be an awful lot worse. <br /><br />Whatever the case, I can assure you that the views I present are mine alone. I receive no compensation from any government or Wall Street source, or from anyone for that matter.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-221209885667645582010-05-10T07:11:29.193-07:002010-05-10T07:11:29.193-07:00What I am celebrating is an end to a financial pan...What I am celebrating is an end to a financial panic that had the potential to wreck havok not only in European capitols but globally if it had been allowed to spread. <br /><br />Debt is a disease only if it is abused. It is nor evil in and of itself. There is no question a lot of countries are sick...us included. But you don't deny treatment because someone exercised bad judgement. You giveJohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23302472842721696602010-05-10T06:53:46.247-07:002010-05-10T06:53:46.247-07:00You are celebrating the continued issuance of astr...You are celebrating the continued issuance of astronomical debt loads. <br /><br />This is the sad state of the 'free markets' today.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38336005658601656442010-05-10T06:22:17.718-07:002010-05-10T06:22:17.718-07:00Benjamin,
I don't have a thought really ab...Benjamin, <br /><br />I don't have a thought really about Bob Bennett as an individual or as a conservative senator. I just recognize that sometimes it is necessary to go to the extremes in order to come back to the middle, which, overtime, has raised itself to the high level of mediocrity. Bob Bennet was part of that mediocrity, as is Crist and others. Besides Bennett is 76 years old. Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18190525712352815677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47956308109010896602010-05-10T05:46:53.811-07:002010-05-10T05:46:53.811-07:00The best analogy I can think of to express what th...The best analogy I can think of to express what the EU has done here is the popular TV poker game Texas Holdem. When you bet with your highest conviction you go what is called "All In". Well, the EU went "All In" this weekend, including their nuclear option of directly buying sovereign bonds in the open market. It is there that the short sellers were very exposed. With CentralJohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14582299850977110652010-05-09T19:21:18.549-07:002010-05-09T19:21:18.549-07:00I am truly sorry guys, but I just can't help i...I am truly sorry guys, but I just can't help it. From Bloomberg News:<br /><br />"The Governing Council decided to conduct interventions in the Euro area public and private debt securities markets to ensure depth and liquidity in those market segments which are dysfunctional."<br /><br />The central bank also said that it will reactivate temporary liquidity swap lines with the US Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81738963668672610982010-05-09T17:55:32.725-07:002010-05-09T17:55:32.725-07:00This is my final post for the evening.
Very earl...This is my final post for the evening. <br /><br />Very early trading in Japan has the Euro up sharply against virtually all competing currencies. Japanese equities are higher. <br /><br />Our markets should open higher in the AM. <br /><br />I apologize for all the posts today, but our markets are paniced and writing these posts helps me keep my thoughts clear and my confidence up. I appreciate Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7013208723453886162010-05-09T17:51:27.740-07:002010-05-09T17:51:27.740-07:00John-
Good clarification. I read that Greece may...John-<br /><br />Good clarification. I read that Greece may "re-schedule" some loan re-payments. <br /><br />Again, from what I read, Greece can both trim outlays and get mildly serious about tax collections and easily solve their problem. <br /><br />Some very high fraction of Greece households in high-income neighborhoods report pittance incomes, again according to what I read,Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40450921524122900352010-05-09T17:29:31.320-07:002010-05-09T17:29:31.320-07:00I would like to clarify something that to me is be...I would like to clarify something that to me is being misunderstood by some. The word "bailout" has become synonomous with a "gift" or a "forgiveness" of debt that by implication is not deserved. SO FAR, that is not the case. Greece has been awarded LOANS -- I REPEAT LOANS from the IMF and the EU member nations to finance their budget deficits. Now it very well may Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51697403730868103662010-05-09T16:46:42.105-07:002010-05-09T16:46:42.105-07:00My favorite short seller has posted this evening t...My favorite short seller has posted this evening that the EU's package is credible and will result in a "combustable rally" is equity prices. <br /><br />Just sayin.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70974412412821475842010-05-09T14:55:41.012-07:002010-05-09T14:55:41.012-07:00Bob-
Be not too happy with the heave-ho of Bob Be...Bob-<br /><br />Be not too happy with the heave-ho of Bob Bennett, who came from a very good and established Utah family, and was a fairly conservative fellow. I may have disagreed with Bennett on a few issues, but he seemed like a very honorable man. <br /><br />If the R-Party has no place for the Bob Bennetts of the world, just who is going to be left in the party? The Montana farmer on Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9912594885451487572010-05-09T14:50:01.783-07:002010-05-09T14:50:01.783-07:00Mark,
100% agree on demographics. Throw in the th...Mark,<br /><br />100% agree on demographics. Throw in the the assault on immigration (we are all immigrants), and the population picture gets worse.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15235232381063651392010-05-09T14:48:23.883-07:002010-05-09T14:48:23.883-07:00Greece and the Euro are so small they need a EUR 5...Greece and the Euro are so small they need a EUR 500B bailout. We are reaching the pinnacle of Sovereign debt explosion. It just keeps getting better and better and better. Not...Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36325131188471870882010-05-09T12:52:56.754-07:002010-05-09T12:52:56.754-07:00The powers-that-be in the EU are gearing up for a ...The powers-that-be in the EU are gearing up for a battle royale with the speculators over the price of the Euro in the FX markets when the Asian markets open tonight. The ECB has a political mandate from the EU to defend the currency (at what level we do not know) while the speculators are betting the Euro will fall further and are/will be selling the currency for US dollars, Swiss Francs, and Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-43375113494189462412010-05-09T07:32:09.139-07:002010-05-09T07:32:09.139-07:00Senator Bob Bennett of Utah ousted from the Repubi...Senator Bob Bennett of Utah ousted from the Repubican primary. A portent of things to come? I hope so.<br /><br />My thanks also, to all who contribute.<br /><br />BobBobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18190525712352815677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5738939823610348992010-05-09T05:24:28.141-07:002010-05-09T05:24:28.141-07:00During the Lehman Bros panic the US Federal Reserv...During the Lehman Bros panic the US Federal Reserve provided 'unlimited' currency swaps with selected central banks around the world. Among them were Brazil and South Korea and Mexico. I have no evidence of it but it would not surprise me in the least if the Fed was engaged in the same thing in this crisis with the ECB. It would make the Fed a marginal buyer of Euros. Along with the Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10308711895973135202010-05-08T23:00:38.439-07:002010-05-08T23:00:38.439-07:00Mr. Grannis, your optimism rivals Mark Perry's...Mr. Grannis, your optimism rivals Mark Perry's! <br /><br />Uplifting, but sort of skipping over the hugely deflationary actions of many levels of govts and businesses stuck with budgets. <br /><br />Surely inflation must follow deflation, as fighting deflation ("negative inflation") appears to be the primary mission of the fed. <br /><br />I sincerely hope the powers aren't Redbudhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11129324296307875764noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-27462295386638036852010-05-08T19:38:14.454-07:002010-05-08T19:38:14.454-07:00Scott-
The 1990s dot.com bubble seemed to be caus...Scott-<br /><br />The 1990s dot.com bubble seemed to be caused by irrational exuburance. It was a heady time. I suppose you could say monetary policy was too loose, but we were a very optimistic nation in the 1990s, free of foreign entanglements and wars, enjoying solid growth and low inflation. The Dow just about tripled in the decade if memory serves. I think in one year the NASDAQ rose 50 Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com