tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post5179468986772718999..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: $4 gasoline isn't a big threat to the economyScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9884926098797234142012-02-16T13:58:20.958-08:002012-02-16T13:58:20.958-08:00Unknown, Yep, I hope you're correct about the ...Unknown, Yep, I hope you're correct about the U.S. improving it's own production picture.<br /><br />I agree we use energy more 'efficiently' than we used do, here at home. And our demand is rising very slowly.<br /><br />Worldwide demand growth is another picture, however.<br /><br />The 120 dollar number hit last 2nd quarter was well below the (real) threshold hit at 145 a fewsgt.red.blue.redhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08132657702786638326noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76282649849940395222012-02-16T05:52:02.882-08:002012-02-16T05:52:02.882-08:00Ben Jamin, there is no proof that consumption in E...Ben Jamin, there is no proof that consumption in EuroLand is declining...<br /><br />http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?region=eu&product=oil&graph=consumption<br /><br />http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/06/oil-production-and-consumptionHanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40915668112138265902012-02-16T05:21:40.956-08:002012-02-16T05:21:40.956-08:00It is a known fact that when goo prices double, a ...It is a known fact that when goo prices double, a recession is in the offering...<br /><br />Regarding Frozen's comments please note the following:<br /><br />http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/02/petroleum-3-month-rolling-average-turns.html<br /><br />Those that dismiss rising gasoline prices, do so at their own peril..Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22231507718924408442012-02-16T04:50:55.960-08:002012-02-16T04:50:55.960-08:00Actually, Scott something is afoot in the gasoline...Actually, Scott something is afoot in the gasoline world. Consumption is dropping very very fast, and gasoline is a just in time product -- didn't know this but it doesn't keep.<br /><br />So to say that $4 gas doesn't matter seems to mis the reality out there. Consomption is falling fast, very very fastFrozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37401562440273882122012-02-15T23:24:04.477-08:002012-02-15T23:24:04.477-08:00And to emphasize my point above, the NBER date of ...And to emphasize my point above, the NBER date of the 1990 recession began in <a href="http://www.nber.org/cycles.html" rel="nofollow">July 1990</a>. The Iraq invasion of Kuwait and the resulting oil price spike did not occur until the next month.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57828453463122671072012-02-15T23:15:34.641-08:002012-02-15T23:15:34.641-08:00From sgt's link:
"In 1983, economist Jam...From sgt's link:<br /><br /><b>"In 1983, economist James Hamilton of the University of California at San Diego showed that "all but one of the US recessions since World War Two have been preceded, typically with a lag of around three-fourths of a year, by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum." The years 1946 to 2007 saw 10 dramatic spikes in the price of oil -- Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33787519806149983032012-02-15T20:13:22.664-08:002012-02-15T20:13:22.664-08:00oops, my last comment was directed to the sgt.oops, my last comment was directed to the sgt.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75087085321383869392012-02-15T20:09:45.553-08:002012-02-15T20:09:45.553-08:00Unknown: I have the greatest respect for Alan Reyn...Unknown: I have the greatest respect for Alan Reynolds, but I don't agree with him on this one.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72347236904982483572012-02-15T20:05:29.430-08:002012-02-15T20:05:29.430-08:00Donny: don't think for a moment that I don'...Donny: don't think for a moment that I don't agree with you on the Keystone pipeline. Not allowing the free market to develop our own energy resources and infrastructure is far worse than having to pay money to OPEC for oil.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76348933690122205242012-02-15T19:34:18.328-08:002012-02-15T19:34:18.328-08:00Scott,
I didn't have national borders in mind,...Scott,<br />I didn't have national borders in mind, I see a family that is spending $100 more per month on gas to go the same places - work, school, shopping, etc. - having $100 less to spend on other things. <br /><br />I do not wish to make a mercantilist mistake, but I track the energy business pretty close, and dollars from developed countries are flowing to energy infrastructure Donny Baseballhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08040288585224426073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10806473078791587962012-02-15T18:58:08.529-08:002012-02-15T18:58:08.529-08:00It may take more than 4 dollars or gallon, or high...It may take more than 4 dollars or gallon, or higher than the 145 per bbl that oil got to in the last go-around, but Alan Reynolds had this to say about the most recent recession and high oil prices....<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/item_gVaSb33EOifIPEOGE0BXxH/1" rel="nofollow">It Didn't Begin Here</a>sgt.red.blue.redhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08132657702786638326noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2461717667732611062012-02-15T17:34:11.689-08:002012-02-15T17:34:11.689-08:00Do not believe the stats coming from the BEA...The...Do not believe the stats coming from the BEA...They are as bad as their labeling of their charts...<br /><br />I will keep it simple, any savings in energy efficiency has been destroyed by the HIGH cost of gasoline, which has increased at double the rate of inflation... <br /><br />http://www.neo.ne.gov/statshtml/195.htm<br /><br />http://www.energyfuturemontana.org/2011/presentations/Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5527592282413880682012-02-15T17:28:45.602-08:002012-02-15T17:28:45.602-08:00Even $8 per gallon gasoline is not a threat to the...Even $8 per gallon gasoline is not a threat to the US economy -- I already pay around $8 whenever I'm living in Europe -- my travels back and forth between Europe and the US have always made me wonder why Americans are so convinced that $4 plus gasoline is the end of the world -- trust me, it's not -- by the way, the big losers with higher fuel prices is not consumers, but the US militaryMcKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55294611791855349492012-02-15T15:14:19.980-08:002012-02-15T15:14:19.980-08:00Donny: you are falling into the mercantilist trap....Donny: you are falling into the mercantilist trap. Spending money to import oil does not necessarily harm our economy, and buying domestic oil doesn't either. Every dollar we remit to OPEC for oil must ultimately be spent in the U.S. economy on something--it does not go down a black hole. The main impact of expensive energy is to slow growth, since it makes economic activity more expensive onScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-42114764839686873532012-02-15T14:52:56.232-08:002012-02-15T14:52:56.232-08:00I don't dispute this as a macro theme, but on ...I don't dispute this as a macro theme, but on a micro level, and at the margin, this hurts. For every month that we have $4 gas rather than $3.50 gas is roughly $6 billion of consumer DI lost. It won't cripple us, but losing $60 billion+ between now and the end of the year isn't nothing.Donny Baseballhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08040288585224426073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73967058127502227542012-02-15T14:48:24.884-08:002012-02-15T14:48:24.884-08:00Unknown:
Cushing is often overloaded with oil.
I...Unknown:<br /><br />Cushing is often overloaded with oil.<br /><br />Ironically, we have oil gluts in the USA, while gasoline demand is dropping steeply. <br /><br />If Iran-Libya can be ironed out, and if Iraq does anything, we may see global glut again, like in 2009. Tankers in Malta, full of oil, nowhere to offload. <br /><br />The current price for oil is set on the NYMEX, in a manner Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-56395566856155707952012-02-15T12:44:13.743-08:002012-02-15T12:44:13.743-08:00Speaking of gasoline, for the foreseeable future, ...Speaking of gasoline, for the foreseeable future, the Midwest is going to be the Place to Be if you want cheap gas.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bentek-us-midwest-crude-oil-market-will-be-oversupplied-from-plays-like-bakken-utica-over-next-five-years-creating-wide-and-volatile-wti-brent-spreads-2012-02-15" rel="nofollow">Midwest oil oversupply due to rapidly growing Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46642111501410444692012-02-15T12:01:08.459-08:002012-02-15T12:01:08.459-08:00Excellent insights by Scott Grannis--in fact, he u...Excellent insights by Scott Grannis--in fact, he understates the case. Oil consumption is actually now falling in the USA. <br /><br />Oil consumption has been falling for more than 25 years in Europe and Japan where they tax crude oil consumption. Now that prices are higher, we are fallowing the same path. <br /><br />Thanks to private-sector responses to higher prices, we can use less and lessBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com