tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post4980634557817656214..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Two reasons this recovery has been so weakScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77036362639158046482014-06-03T20:05:46.346-07:002014-06-03T20:05:46.346-07:00i was reading the blog and i think that this infor...i was reading the blog and i think that this information is going to help me a lot.<br /><br />www.n8fan.netAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84251389565232312862013-12-02T15:13:12.771-08:002013-12-02T15:13:12.771-08:00Hi Steve! First check out this post on equity valu...Hi Steve! First check out this post on equity valuation methods:<br /><br />http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/search?q=valuation+exercises<br /><br />I think I would say the same thing today, although PE ratios are a bit higher now than they were last August. Stocks are trading somewhere within "fair value" range. I don't see any evidence that there is an equity bubble. <br /><br />Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72975239446364892362013-12-02T12:25:54.984-08:002013-12-02T12:25:54.984-08:00Scott--Steve Fulton here. What's your view of ...Scott--Steve Fulton here. What's your view of the general level of stock prices? What will affect prices more, an increase in economic activity/hiring or the higher rates that should accompany this??<br />SteveSteve Fultonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17201413605319579983noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7277005941093652042013-11-30T21:13:11.823-08:002013-11-30T21:13:11.823-08:00marmico, yes I mean transfer payments and yes all ...marmico, yes I mean transfer payments and yes all that you mention and more (like Earned Income Tax Credit and now Obamacare). The chart you linked specifically excludes them!<br /><br />Of coarse they rise and fall with recessions. But they are GROWING. <br /><br />Definition: Personal current transfer receipts are benefits received by persons for which no<br />current services are performed.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068805988034886750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89553958966152546202013-11-29T17:59:57.268-08:002013-11-29T17:59:57.268-08:00Tom: that's a worthy thought, but do the math ...Tom: that's a worthy thought, but do the math again: you're about 1,000 times too high.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-88809908498976951472013-11-29T11:02:15.646-08:002013-11-29T11:02:15.646-08:00Between the $1 Trillion of stimulus and the suppos...Between the $1 Trillion of stimulus and the supposed $638 Million on the ObamaCare website, each man, woman and child in the US could have been given $4 Million and become self insured insofar as medical care in concerned. Tom Gateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00564389760719510546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49750921638667914262013-11-26T09:25:44.750-08:002013-11-26T09:25:44.750-08:00We are paying people not to work!
Presumably you ...<i>We are paying people not to work!</i><br /><br />Presumably you mean transfer payments to persons. The overwhelming increase in transfer payments to persons over the last 40 years are payments to the elderly (social security and medicare) and to the poor (medicaid). What does that have to do with jobs?<br /><br />This <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=oUM" rel="nofollow">marmicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08277071086056574486noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-4374248091997365642013-11-26T06:47:46.694-08:002013-11-26T06:47:46.694-08:00marmico:
Is the economy worse because consumer sp...marmico:<br /><br />Is the economy worse because consumer spending lower or is consumer spending lower because the economy is sluggish.<br /><br />We used to be a nation that produced and saved (and spent out of our prosperity). Now we are a nation that borrows and spends. And the only mutually shared cry from left and right alike is ‘we all need to spend more so the economy improves’! (Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068805988034886750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60703901309896418752013-11-24T14:10:51.926-08:002013-11-24T14:10:51.926-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70656315473562455542013-11-23T19:10:18.517-08:002013-11-23T19:10:18.517-08:00Perhaps PCE is down in this cycle because so many ...Perhaps PCE is down in this cycle because so many baby boomers, who drove PCE higher in the 80s and 90s are either retired or retiring and their expenditures are dropping. I think you ignore demographics too much in your analysis of events. I would expect PCE to rise as the baby boomlet generation forms more families and starts spending more.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00767015342974230263noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33248648619622653482013-11-23T16:47:30.912-08:002013-11-23T16:47:30.912-08:00Hardly convincing reasons. Why did those things oc...Hardly convincing reasons. Why did those things occur? They are endogenous variables (i.e., they are driven by other things). Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-27141163159174029082013-11-23T16:23:00.336-08:002013-11-23T16:23:00.336-08:00Ooops...PCE-GDP ratio.Ooops...<a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=oOW" rel="nofollow">PCE-GDP ratio</a>.marmicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08277071086056574486noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-43887251625915492472013-11-23T16:16:10.918-08:002013-11-23T16:16:10.918-08:00The 30 odd year secular increase in the PCE-GDP ra...The 30 odd year secular increase in the <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=oLI" rel="nofollow">PCE-GDP ratio</a> and decrease in the <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PSAVERT/" rel="nofollow">personal savings rate</a> are over for the short to medium term.marmicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08277071086056574486noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81281714963127737682013-11-23T14:56:48.902-08:002013-11-23T14:56:48.902-08:00why is PCE below trend?
My guess would be debt re...why is PCE below trend?<br /><br />My guess would be debt repayment. Individuals deleveraging, paying down credit card debt, etc.Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82519336337172132252013-11-23T11:22:26.341-08:002013-11-23T11:22:26.341-08:00Marmico: why is PCE below trend?Marmico: why is PCE below trend?Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79261833150109007972013-11-23T09:55:20.020-08:002013-11-23T09:55:20.020-08:00I do not agree that the "two reasons this rec...I do not agree that the "two reasons this recovery has been so weak" is unemployment insurance and false stimulus spending -- the fundamental reasons must consider ALL government spending, which includes vast amounts wasted for both butter and guns -- defense spending, agency spending, education spending, you name it, is a much bigger culprit in the big picture of government spending --McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55002918175601582282013-11-23T09:02:59.908-08:002013-11-23T09:02:59.908-08:00AIG, should have been allowed to fail, after all t...AIG, should have been allowed to fail, after all their "executive" board decided there was extensive profits to be made in the CDS market ..Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64649158698124256072013-11-23T04:03:54.617-08:002013-11-23T04:03:54.617-08:00"Generosity" and "compassion" ..."Generosity" and "compassion" are measured in dollars. Based on the depth and the duration of the 2007 recession, there is no relative difference in UI benefits relative to national income in this cycle.<br /><br />The primary reason this expansion as measured by GDP (dollars) has been weak is below trend <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=oO1" rel="marmicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08277071086056574486noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84361807733906950032013-11-22T22:43:00.225-08:002013-11-22T22:43:00.225-08:00Well, unemployment benefits, and also SSDI and VA ...Well, unemployment benefits, and also SSDI and VA monthly disability checks, probably have hampered workers from returning to the workforce.<br /><br />One-half of vets returning from Iraqistan are successfully claiming disability, and receiving monthly checks. <br /><br />Disability payments are now a major industry: 12 million Americans are getting SSDI or VA monthly disability checks. <br /><Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-26355829471050061582013-11-22T13:40:43.859-08:002013-11-22T13:40:43.859-08:00Look at the bright side. A few more years of this...Look at the bright side. A few more years of this pathetic "recovery" and it will be time to fit a new trend line which will be flatter in slope, thus making the Obama years look less miserable in the rear view mirror.RichmondG30https://www.blogger.com/profile/15406119391866964600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41242496484335123972013-11-22T12:11:58.017-08:002013-11-22T12:11:58.017-08:00Nudge: That's a tough one. So many mistakes we...Nudge: That's a tough one. So many mistakes were made in late 2008, but they were desperate times. There was real fear that global financial markets would collapse. "Do something, anything!" was the overwhelming cry from every quarter. With the benefit of hindsight, it's easy to see that TARP and the AIG bailout were bad decisions. But at the time it was not obvious.<br /><br />Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55824959956501918652013-11-22T11:58:14.948-08:002013-11-22T11:58:14.948-08:00Scott what about the giant transfer payment that w...Scott what about the giant transfer payment that was TARP and the AIG bailout? I have to assume you would oppose these as well? <br /><br />I was more curious what you would have done in the crisis and not what you would *not* have done. Nudgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10290347510611249049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19261493501624234212013-11-22T11:37:17.760-08:002013-11-22T11:37:17.760-08:00Marmico: I would submit that the number of people ...Marmico: I would submit that the number of people (nominally and relative to the workforce) receiving benefits is far more important than the benefits as a percent of national income.<br /><br />Trader: Last month I linked to a study that purports to show that extended unemployment benefits explain the persistently high unemployment rate we have seen in recent years:<br /><br />http://Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78243213880038273472013-11-22T11:26:44.943-08:002013-11-22T11:26:44.943-08:00Scott - I was hoping the end of this post would co...Scott - I was hoping the end of this post would contain your counter-factual policy mix. Do you ever read the Modern Monetary Theory people (Mosler)? He was calling for suspension of payroll taxes and a $8/hr job for anyone who wants one (e.g. Civil Conservation Corps-like low wage jobs & training program).<br />Nudgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10290347510611249049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-42894355875339423582013-11-22T10:56:15.304-08:002013-11-22T10:56:15.304-08:00Unemployment insurance benefits as a percent of na...Unemployment insurance benefits as a percent of national income.<br /><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=oLI" rel="nofollow">FRED graph</a><br /><br />At its peak, the ratio was slightly worse (slightly better) in the 1973-1974 (1981-1982) recessions but don't let a narrative get in the way of empiricism. marmicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08277071086056574486noreply@blogger.com