tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post4960061499491241530..comments2024-03-19T02:45:37.685-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Federal budget updateScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76415889794527144102009-11-16T04:34:49.425-08:002009-11-16T04:34:49.425-08:00The inflection point in the chart, where interest ...The inflection point in the chart, where interest rates begin to decline seems to coincide with the Reagan era that included lowering marginal tax rates, reducing regulation and stabilizing the dollar. The pathway to those high interest rates whas the opposite approach . High Taxes, strangulation regulation and an inflationary dollar.Think Nixon and Carter<br /><br />We are beginning to see bothdavehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01173750820649272172noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82832529619118071952009-11-14T11:16:43.363-08:002009-11-14T11:16:43.363-08:00The budget deficit is driven in large part by the ...The budget deficit is driven in large part by the business cycle, and the shape of the yield curve tends to lead the business cycle, so it is not surprising that the deficit tracks the yield curve. But I'm not sure that is an argument for a far steeper curve than we have now.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25672054009327103252009-11-14T04:21:38.469-08:002009-11-14T04:21:38.469-08:00Scott,
check out this graph
http://swapsandflops....Scott,<br />check out this graph<br /><br />http://swapsandflops.blogspot.com/<br /><br />ThanksEccono-monkeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13018443354939714293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-32288823403211752732009-11-14T04:13:57.427-08:002009-11-14T04:13:57.427-08:00Scott,
I have an amazing chart looking at the 2 an...Scott,<br />I have an amazing chart looking at the 2 and 10 year spread vs budget balance as a percent of GDP. It shows a very strong correlation. How do I post thatEccono-monkeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13018443354939714293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48807995587702214432009-11-13T06:25:24.087-08:002009-11-13T06:25:24.087-08:00Maybe this can be solved now that the President ha...Maybe this can be solved now that the President has found the root of the problem:<br /><br />"As I’ve said from the start of this crisis, hiring often takes time to catch up to economic growth. And given the magnitude of the economic turmoil that we’ve experienced, employers are reluctant to hire.<br />Small businesses and large firms are demanding more of their employees, they're Brian Hhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14869071526968957308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28044072591244413472009-11-13T05:05:39.678-08:002009-11-13T05:05:39.678-08:00Or are the taxation trends mentioned above contrib...Or are the taxation trends mentioned above contributing to high and persistent unemployment. Making unemployment as a Lagging Indicator false this time around. That unemployment as a Lagging Indicator becomes a statistical outlier this time around. <br /><br />That as the economy anemically rebounds, unemployment doesn’t fall 18 months after the recover begins. In other words, unemployment W.E. Heasleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00368333904571061995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7698281625610348552009-11-12T21:00:58.217-08:002009-11-12T21:00:58.217-08:00You've discovered the reason the market tanked...You've discovered the reason the market tanked in early March. People saw all the parallels to the Great Depression, and then some. My optimism is based on my belief that the country is not ready to go down the path to ever-greater government control of the economy.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65278021729792465872009-11-12T17:00:39.449-08:002009-11-12T17:00:39.449-08:00Mr. Grannis:
The divergence of revenue and expend...Mr. Grannis:<br /><br />The divergence of revenue and expenditures seems to be answered by State and Local Governments by merely raising taxes. The Fed’s are hinting at or trying to enact higher taxes (VAT, Socialized Medicine, Cap and Trade, expiration of Bush across the board tax cuts, etc. etc.). <br /><br />The reduction of the Size and Scope of Government appears completely off the table.<brW.E. Heasleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00368333904571061995noreply@blogger.com