tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post4925994237356322677..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Still no signs of deflationScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38118598852221892172014-10-20T14:30:53.332-07:002014-10-20T14:30:53.332-07:00" a whole lot of QE ultimately ended up as sa..." a whole lot of QE ultimately ended up as savings"<br /><br />I think a whole lot of QE is parked offshore, out of reach of the ham-handed tax man.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-43014665883048012842014-10-19T19:16:34.281-07:002014-10-19T19:16:34.281-07:00Charles--
If real per capita incomes rose in Japan...Charles--<br />If real per capita incomes rose in Japan, then asset values could rise too.<br />But check out yen v dollar exchange rates 1982 to present....the Bank of Japan was tight and it suffocated their economy which actually shrank in nominal terms.<br />I report on Japan stock market daily...it is very sensitive to a rising yen. <br />What the world needs now is coordinated expansionist Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23836530498342474022014-10-19T09:52:51.087-07:002014-10-19T09:52:51.087-07:00Benjamin,
The real value of any fixed asset in Ja...Benjamin,<br /><br />The real value of any fixed asset in Japan should be expected to decline because Japan is in the midst of a demographic collapse. The price of fixed assets falls because they are worth less. This is especially true of residential housing.<br /><br />What makes you think deflation in Japan is a cause and not an effect?<br /><br />Charleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00607057013050715435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22174331853319152792014-10-18T17:58:05.075-07:002014-10-18T17:58:05.075-07:00Mr. Grannis has posted a number of compelling post...Mr. Grannis has posted a number of compelling posts on where QE went.<br /><br />I am drawn to the explanation that it filled a demand for holding money, in other words savings. If you accept that profits are savings, a whole lot of QE ultimately ended up as savings. (Now if business would just invest those profits and give money velocity a kick in the pants).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53736491239237422572014-10-18T17:51:06.169-07:002014-10-18T17:51:06.169-07:00All business people with products live with deflat...All business people with products live with deflation. It is called product life or cycle. Take flat screen TVs. Personally I waited for prices to go down as everyone knew the earlier you bought the more you would pay. The TV manufactures had a great run during declining prices. Product life is why so much effort is put into finding new products. Thank heavens for declining prices.<br /><brAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52377219532177528802014-10-18T17:21:27.355-07:002014-10-18T17:21:27.355-07:00John - congratulations on being busy at work. The ...John - congratulations on being busy at work. The QE money was partially invested, partially consumed, and partially deposited at banks. The problem with QE was that the said was too timid in its use of that type of stimulus. In fact QE may have to become a permanent feature of a central bank's toolkit.<br />To those who say that QE is inert, I say, "Then fine let us pay off the entire Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3753064009484104962014-10-18T12:09:17.466-07:002014-10-18T12:09:17.466-07:00Also, what with al the QE, here we are talking abo...Also, what with al the QE, here we are talking about deflation. Where did all the QE money go?Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53028197317284627222014-10-18T12:05:09.859-07:002014-10-18T12:05:09.859-07:00These are strange times. My measly portfolio has c...These are strange times. My measly portfolio has certainly deflated, lately, but we are busier than ever at work.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-58672108818804226322014-10-18T06:31:28.180-07:002014-10-18T06:31:28.180-07:00Charles-
The recent history of Japan 1992-2012 an...Charles-<br /><br />The recent history of Japan 1992-2012 and Europe (now) with deflation does not suggest a healthy economy. It suggests stagnation. <br /><br />Again, we may be in deflation when the CPU-U reads 2%, and there are whole regions of the country where that is the case. Housing in the Midwest is cheap. <br /><br />The biggest investment of most families is their house. Okay so the Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46328996669953769082014-10-18T06:04:54.061-07:002014-10-18T06:04:54.061-07:00Scott is absolutely right that deflation is not so...Scott is absolutely right that deflation is not something to worry about. Slow, steady deflation is characteristic of a healthy economy. Productivity improvements should result in lower prices.<br /><br />The concern seems to be that central banks would be unable to achieve a negative real interest rate to fix the economy. How can it be beneficial to the economy to incentivize investments with a Charleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00607057013050715435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41515658264695126882014-10-18T00:00:43.830-07:002014-10-18T00:00:43.830-07:00— French 10-year government bond: 1.13%
— German 1...— French 10-year government bond: 1.13%<br />— German 10-year government bond: 0.75%<br />— Japanese 10-year government bond: 0.48%<br /><br />Institutional investors are giving their money away for 10 years---is this not a sign of deflation? <br /><br />Besides, measures of inflation are only estimates, and change depending how you measure housing (always tricky) or technological and medical Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10036825509889919282014-10-17T15:25:15.553-07:002014-10-17T15:25:15.553-07:00Great article - educational for me
Thank you - I ...Great article - educational for me<br /><br />Thank you - I have been watching my EuroStoxx50 take a hammering on recession and deflation fears. Maybe I can relax a littleMarkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01728690047712146177noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75542479559233905992014-10-17T05:51:32.864-07:002014-10-17T05:51:32.864-07:00Mr Grannis, EuroLand has more problems to worry ab...Mr Grannis, EuroLand has more problems to worry about than deflation; although<br />your reasoning are very sound.<br /><br />The state of economic malaise in Europe can not be underscored; as most members of the Common Market continue to struggle economically.<br /><br />Regarding Bola, hear is the plight of Doc Without Borders:<br /><br />http://www.jems.com/article/news/Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22476023359907456062014-10-17T00:57:10.145-07:002014-10-17T00:57:10.145-07:00Japan should have balanced their federal budget, b...Japan should have balanced their federal budget, but it was monetary policy that drove down their economy for 20 years while that yen exploded in value. Most people consider federal deficits to be inflationary---but the Bank of Japan kept money so tight that Japan managed to obtain deflation anyway.<br /><br />And it is not clear that a modern economy can escape from zero lower bound. So far Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12508487678853548032014-10-16T21:23:20.179-07:002014-10-16T21:23:20.179-07:00Here are a dozen charts that purport to show the &...Here are a dozen charts that purport to show the "permanent damage" endured by the US economy since 2000...<br /><br />http://patriotsbillboard.org/12-charts-that-show-the-permanent-damage-that-has-been-done-to-the-u-s-economy/McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31086795249479002052014-10-16T21:02:56.711-07:002014-10-16T21:02:56.711-07:00Ebola Non-Sense: 3 patients successfully treated ...<b>Ebola Non-Sense: 3 patients successfully treated at Emory and Nebraska Hospitals without problems</b><br /><br />Two patients infected in Africa with Ebola virus were successfully treated at Emory University Hospital and one in Nebraska without any secondary infections. Only the Dallas Presbyterian Hospital has had a very poor performance: first is not admitting and isolating the black Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51727189418616348162014-10-16T15:38:37.531-07:002014-10-16T15:38:37.531-07:00This obsession with avoiding inflation below 2% is...This obsession with avoiding inflation below 2% is indeed troubling. As a consumer and an investor I would much prefer zero to 2%. Stable prices are nirvana in my book. <br /><br />And in any event, the Fed does not have the ability or the smarts to fine-tune inflation to such a degree. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.com