tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post4800358480144287151..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Gloomy yield curveScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71443638541985281822019-01-02T08:03:01.376-08:002019-01-02T08:03:01.376-08:00Kinda funny - the 2016 and 2014 forecasts from 201...Kinda funny - the 2016 and 2014 forecasts from 2014 actually match up very well with 2017 and 2018 reality. i.e. it took longer but happened faster than expected.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16684144731130063347noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7538344803029064392014-12-09T18:55:35.433-08:002014-12-09T18:55:35.433-08:00Wow, great article and great comments.
My theory ...Wow, great article and great comments.<br /><br />My theory for the past 10 years is...Europe is becoming Japan and US is becoming Europe.<br /><br />I am half right so far.<br /><br />The reason is the size and scope of government (and over stated inflation measures). Others have touched on both here. <br /><br />Corporations are under investing and squeezing the hell out of profits. PD Dennisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10012560806774461700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53872710081488932322014-12-09T08:46:29.683-08:002014-12-09T08:46:29.683-08:00Hi Tom: good to hear from you, thanks for the comm...Hi Tom: good to hear from you, thanks for the comment.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9928444848525983302014-12-09T05:02:16.292-08:002014-12-09T05:02:16.292-08:00Yield curve shape may have less to do with economi...Yield curve shape may have less to do with economic projections over the next few cycles because of the distort ions resulting from near free carry trades.<br /><br />Forecasting recessions will become an even greater challenge if developed countries are at risk of becoming "japanzied." It is hard to imagine an economic recovery of any magnitude when unemployment rates are sub- 4%, as Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06435487650342601020noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68379336398069458892014-12-09T04:30:12.991-08:002014-12-09T04:30:12.991-08:00so my view is that the world is awash in money and...so my view is that the world is awash in money and there's only so many places you can put it. there's literally trillions in cash earning NOTHING and the stock market is arguably at least fairly valued. prices of all assets are always driven by supply/demand and the demand is so high relative to supply and there is an insatiable demand for yield that treasuries can demand a price higher stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20932595822403749692014-12-08T21:17:37.538-08:002014-12-08T21:17:37.538-08:00Well, you gotta admire Scott Grannis for wrangling...Well, you gotta admire Scott Grannis for wrangling with these unruly stats. <br /><br />A few thoughts:<br /><br />1. Global capital gluts due to non-market forces. Sovereign wealth funds are huge, public pension programs are huge, insurance pools of capital (often required by law) are huge. <br /><br />Also, much of the world has developed upper classes who have the means to save.<br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75637312388938197942014-12-08T21:09:38.778-08:002014-12-08T21:09:38.778-08:00Rapid economic growth will have to be political, n...Rapid economic growth will have to be political, not economic. That is, a congress will have to pass supply side friendly laws and a president will have to sign them.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19487490546047889292014-12-08T18:55:06.140-08:002014-12-08T18:55:06.140-08:00Scott - I think you are correct that your real mar...Scott - I think you are correct that your real market indicators are usually indicative of the future. BUT perhaps that is only 80% of the time and certainly not at major market turning points.<br /><br />Did the 15+% yield on the 10 Treasury in the Summer of 1981 predict future inflation? Did the NASDAQ at 5000 predict future earning of most of those dot com companies? Not at all, no better thanWilliamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20710633725875028792014-12-08T18:31:53.377-08:002014-12-08T18:31:53.377-08:00On the contrary, slow growth forever is very unlik...On the contrary, slow growth forever is very unlikely in my way of looking at things. Too much tension is building up among the middle class. Taxes and regulations are suffocating everyone. Pro-growth solutions are easy to implement and should prove very popular. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-1200604537796293982014-12-08T18:26:18.180-08:002014-12-08T18:26:18.180-08:00Scott;
Thanks again for sharing.
While many may ...Scott;<br /><br />Thanks again for sharing.<br /><br />While many may wish for something stronger than a slow growth future, a positive is that it is probably a more realistic and sustainable scenario. Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01390035459036380103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83465093450096886492014-12-08T17:19:45.729-08:002014-12-08T17:19:45.729-08:00Just for the record as of today I am 42% in cash -...Just for the record <b>as of today I am 42% in cash</b> - which I hate because of it's negative yield. I do not understand this world. There have been so many changes the past 6 months, any one of which could explode the present tranquility.<br /><br />I have observed that the initial interpretation of major market changes are often wrong. I have no confidence that the recent crude oil price Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71196656285106358602014-12-08T15:34:54.696-08:002014-12-08T15:34:54.696-08:00Don't forget the distortions of WWII during wh...Don't forget the distortions of WWII during which time we had price controls and an all-out effort to keep bond yields low.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90307347052741584812014-12-08T15:21:13.291-08:002014-12-08T15:21:13.291-08:00Off of the 1940's 10-yr rate low at about the ...Off of the 1940's 10-yr rate low at about the current 2% it took 9-10 years for this yield to get to 3%. Maybe this is a good analogy and thus fits the yield curve analysis.<br /><br />Remember, too, that off of the last rate low the stock market went on a long and super tear.NormanBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05986709079442388236noreply@blogger.com