tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post4695609587883640481..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Sunday readingScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48673224388649199852011-09-26T09:36:50.950-07:002011-09-26T09:36:50.950-07:00Massive inflation on the way. Policy makes and cen...Massive inflation on the way. Policy makes and central banks will have us begging for it. The table is being set. Buy all the sub $30/oz silver u can get your hands on.TradingStrategyLetter - Weekly Summaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06430136667577107255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18778227293769993272011-09-26T09:29:21.970-07:002011-09-26T09:29:21.970-07:00http://inframarginaldivergence.blogspot.com/2011/0...http://inframarginaldivergence.blogspot.com/2011/09/when-bad-men-combine-good-must.html?showComment=1317054456973#c8923615129795680610<br /><br />Another right-wing blogger who understand we actually have a very tight Fed right now.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76723434695510767892011-09-26T09:20:10.474-07:002011-09-26T09:20:10.474-07:00Squire-
I enjoy your commentary, and we all could...Squire-<br /><br />I enjoy your commentary, and we all could wish for less structural impediments (including the GOP ban on immigration). <br /><br />But we probably have less structural impediments today than in the 1970s. Lower marginal tax rates, more global trade, less regulation (transportation and finance---remember Req Q?). <br /><br />The fifty states are raising or lowering their own Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36651291024329216032011-09-26T09:06:29.608-07:002011-09-26T09:06:29.608-07:00Bill:
Reagan cut taxes AND increased spending, esp...Bill:<br />Reagan cut taxes AND increased spending, especially on defense. He had room to do so because bracket creep brought in enough revenue to drive government debt to historic lows, as a percentage of GDP. The next president will have no such luxury.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49652319670531506362011-09-26T08:09:52.794-07:002011-09-26T08:09:52.794-07:00Frozen: Your information is incorrect.
Under R...Frozen: Your information is incorrect. <br /><br />Under Reagan, federal tax receipts increased from $1,251.4 billion (in 2005 dollars) in 1981 to $1,494 billion in 1989. <br /><br />Under Bush, federal tax receipts increased from $2,215.3 billion (again in 2005 dollars) in 2001 to $2,286.8 billion in 2008 before falling dramatically to $1,898.3 billion in 2009 as a result of the economic Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05145490918994594519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-247687295140812172011-09-26T07:04:31.917-07:002011-09-26T07:04:31.917-07:00Benjamin,
Last week the FED pulled down inflatio...Benjamin, <br /><br />Last week the FED pulled down inflation expectations and the stock market plunged because it wanted inflation because if apparent growth is all you have , it is all you have. Gold plunged because of the portion that gold is bought as an inflation hedge. Bonds are a deflation hedge and soared. So I agree with you that inflation isn’t currently a concern and rates support Squirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3062349006980069632011-09-26T05:47:52.123-07:002011-09-26T05:47:52.123-07:00Interesting argument that in the long term inflati...Interesting argument that in the long term inflation will occur. But of course in the long run we're all dead. More interesting is the analysis that lower taxes will lead to higher revenues.<br /><br />Didn't happen under Reagan, or Bush (although one could argue the temporary nature of the Bush tax cuts), still reducing tax rate will not increase tax revenues -- huge canardFrozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-1710368559304183432011-09-26T03:21:08.150-07:002011-09-26T03:21:08.150-07:00Benjamin,
I don't think you understand Cochra...Benjamin,<br /><br />I don't think you understand Cochrane. He is not concerned about current Fed policy causing inflation. Nor is he especially concerned about cyclical deficits. He contends that in the current environment bonds and money are interchangeable and that the fed is powerless to affect the economy through open market operations. He is, on the other hand, concerned that QE Charleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00607057013050715435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70846844470904621712011-09-25T20:41:03.375-07:002011-09-25T20:41:03.375-07:00Squire:
If there is serious concern about inflati...Squire:<br /><br />If there is serious concern about inflation,. explain long-term interest rates. These are professional, institutional buyers, largely. <br /><br />Cochrane's piece is well-written, not shrill in tone--only in antique content. <br /><br />Read Carpe Diem today (written by another right-winger, btw). Inflation is weaker than the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14655811718463278752011-09-25T19:16:32.758-07:002011-09-25T19:16:32.758-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11162960029740799002011-09-25T18:40:34.248-07:002011-09-25T18:40:34.248-07:00Scott,
Thanks for posting this. This is the argum...Scott,<br />Thanks for posting this. This is the argument I have been tyring to make for some time now. I am glad to see Cochrane has been able to put for this argument in a manner that has led you to finally acknowledge the dangerous situation we are in.<br /><br />What I can't understand is how you can write: "Fortunately, the problem is still relatively easy to solve." It may Mark Gerberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07980096984624964261noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28329069625949810552011-09-25T18:17:42.141-07:002011-09-25T18:17:42.141-07:00I didn't hear any level of hysteria in Cochran...I didn't hear any level of hysteria in Cochrane's piece. He is saying there is more risk of it than the professionals think and he gives his reasons. If investors suddenly slow down their purchases of treasuries, a reacion by the FED to print to buy the bonds can be inflationary.<br /><br />The article is educational. To me.Squirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18315931309035231042011-09-25T15:20:11.057-07:002011-09-25T15:20:11.057-07:00What inflation? What inflation are we worried abo...What inflation? What inflation are we worried about? <br /><br />Dr. Perry, Carpe Diem, has an excellent post on inflation today. There isn't any to speak of. We are deflating by some measures. <br /><br />John Cochrane must not be aware of what is happening in the TIPS markets. Investors are not expecting inflation closer to 1 percent than 2 percent. As if 2 percent would be the ned of Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com