tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post4647637630251984877..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Year-end review of the dollar: very weakScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69962866378967674282011-01-04T07:08:52.456-08:002011-01-04T07:08:52.456-08:00REW: You have a good point. An earlier-than-expect...REW: You have a good point. An earlier-than-expected Fed tightening would likely be bad for gold, commodities, and emerging markets, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them suffer a nasty selloff should that happen. But it's hard to see how the Fed could tighten enough this year to really make a difference to the fundamentals. Even if they raised the funds rate to 1.0% (three tightenings)Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76373065251617210122011-01-03T20:46:48.936-08:002011-01-03T20:46:48.936-08:00Scott,
If your 2011 predictions are correct, and ...Scott,<br /><br />If your 2011 predictions are correct, and the Fed hikes sooner than expected, and the dollar strengthens, I would expect commodities to suffer and emerging market equities to pull back. We saw this will the small bursts of dollar strength in 2010 around the European default scares. Your predictions seem to call for dollar strength but ignore the impact on commodities and piefarmerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04596576632760958227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89632045165255930392011-01-02T10:55:37.170-08:002011-01-02T10:55:37.170-08:00A pretty girl at a financial paper I worked at onc...A pretty girl at a financial paper I worked at once asked, "How come all the currencies are going up except the dollar?"Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9440347937373825772011-01-02T09:13:24.448-08:002011-01-02T09:13:24.448-08:00Jean-Pierre: You are absolutely right. When curren...Jean-Pierre: You are absolutely right. When currencies reach valuation extremes, as is the case with the dollar (very cheap) and the loonie (very expensive), then they become vulnerable if conditions and/or sentiment change.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17798068032202639592011-01-02T08:00:43.091-08:002011-01-02T08:00:43.091-08:00You are right, the USD is weak, or are those other...You are right, the USD is weak, or are those other currencies overvalued? <br /><br />Can't speak for other currencies but as a Canadian I know the loonie probably is, the PPP tells you that but you must also know that if Canada did managed to do relatively well during the crisis it did so at the cost of an unprecedented growth in household debt (the housing bubble grew even DURING the Jean-Pierre Deslandeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02089882925568071398noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-21397568548968227792011-01-02T04:28:14.357-08:002011-01-02T04:28:14.357-08:00excellent post. i am amazed you would write this ...excellent post. i am amazed you would write this and the prior post and not see the direct connection with dollar debasement and nominal asset prices. the money illusion indeed.septizoniomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14253705209662419429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37444544935116041092011-01-01T06:46:53.626-08:002011-01-01T06:46:53.626-08:00The dollar is very weak, and the cost of restoring...The dollar is very weak, and the cost of restoring the dollar's strength would essentially require that Americans give up all public services (public education, social security, and Medicare only would be a downpayment) with a concomitant doubling of taxes to pay off the national debt. Oh, and the winners of repairing the dollar would not be anyone in the 99% club. Let me think -- I have McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-27305850560018897662010-12-31T17:40:13.547-08:002010-12-31T17:40:13.547-08:00Inflation, schmaflation.
The weak dollar boost ex...Inflation, schmaflation.<br /><br />The weak dollar boost exports, and that boost GDP.<br /><br />The dollar is "weak"-- I say the dollar is at a "trade-enhancing level--for two years, and where is the inflation?<br /><br />Indeed, we have had disinflation for the last two years, and may be moving towards deflation. Some in the Fed are predicting zero inflation next year, a Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-35430332448520292932010-12-31T13:31:35.920-08:002010-12-31T13:31:35.920-08:00Scott,
A happy and prosperous new year to you and...Scott,<br /><br />A happy and prosperous new year to you and your family. <br /><br />To all commenters on Scott's blog, I wish the same. <br /><br />Happy New Year!!Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.com