tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post4128255842468048888..comments2024-03-18T13:22:06.536-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Green shoots turn red-hotScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77063881664247051922009-05-28T09:15:35.742-07:002009-05-28T09:15:35.742-07:00Scott-
Don't get me wrong, I am optimistic and bul...Scott-<br />Don't get me wrong, I am optimistic and bullish, just that my bullishness is maybe 80% globally driven and 20% US-driven. I expect only modest recovery in the US - the heart attack victim will get up off the floor, but he won't be doing any jumping jacks. And, like you, I am short US monetary policy (I own TBT).<br /><br />Yes, Long Beach is showing some signs of life (that post wasDonny Baseballhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08040288585224426073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62573581619248877792009-05-28T08:59:27.802-07:002009-05-28T08:59:27.802-07:00Tom and Micael: Until very recently, the Fed's mas...Tom and Micael: Until very recently, the Fed's massive balance sheet growth was not inflationary, it was done to accommodate an equally large increase in money demand. That's what a central bank is supposed to do in a crisis. I'm now arguing that we've passed through a tipping point, and so going forward the Fed is going to be increasingly oversupplying money to the system unless it takes action Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78267460885387189762009-05-28T08:53:09.229-07:002009-05-28T08:53:09.229-07:00ronrasch: Interest rates are going to have to get ...ronrasch: Interest rates are going to have to get an awful lot higher before the US has trouble financing its deficit. In the meantime, rising rates are going to make it tougher for politicians to ignore the deficit, and thus the bond market vigilantes may come to the rescue on behalf of the rest of us.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22591657295240571422009-05-28T08:51:26.772-07:002009-05-28T08:51:26.772-07:00Paul: I figure velocity has turned up since M2 mon...Paul: I figure velocity has turned up since M2 money growth has slowed at the same time consumer spending has picked up.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10795508343012295032009-05-28T08:50:39.213-07:002009-05-28T08:50:39.213-07:00donny: Outbound container shipments from Long Beac...donny: Outbound container shipments from Long Beach and Los Angeles have picked up dramatically this year--see my posts and charts on the subject. Let's say you're right and BDI is surging only because of China and India; that still argues for a global recovery. Those countries can't grow without buying more from the rest of the world, and it will be almost impossible to stop them from growing. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19366387467718792112009-05-28T08:32:54.405-07:002009-05-28T08:32:54.405-07:00I agree with Mr Burger. The Fed is trying to induc...I agree with Mr Burger. The Fed is trying to induce another bubble to avert the collapse that is necessary to purge the system of bad assets and the misallocation of capital. They admittedly took the path they believed at the time was the lesser of two evils. The problem may be that the results under both scenarios were equal thus the appropriate medicine would have been to do as little damage asPublic Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16121234167229317242009-05-28T08:20:50.750-07:002009-05-28T08:20:50.750-07:00I am very new to bond investing but I was very luc...I am very new to bond investing but I was very lucky 10 years ago when the price of gold was below $300.00 and I went long calls and did well in long coffee as well. <br /><br />That was a long time ago. My point is does the rapid rise in treasury yiedls portend something more serious?<br /><br />I am not a gold bug, I in fact believe gold is way overbought and is headed much lower. But I am 63 Micaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11931696311711133423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78450047017497846772009-05-28T05:16:13.371-07:002009-05-28T05:16:13.371-07:00If this incipient recovery is in fact due to "all ...If this incipient recovery is in fact due to "all the money" sloshing around the world, then we don't have a healthy recovery. What happens when the Chinese try to trim their infrastructure "stimulus"? What happens when the US stops running a $2 trillion deficit? <br /><br />We can play "ride the bubble" in stock and commodity prices, and good traders may make some money -- but we can't be Tom Burgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01484696976692382802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49563612635245203852009-05-28T01:11:57.136-07:002009-05-28T01:11:57.136-07:00With interest rates rising how can the US afford t...With interest rates rising how can the US afford to finance its massive deficits? As Donny Baseball points out the administration's actions will limit US productivity and its spending will push up interest rates.<br />yikesronraschhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14708698068353771219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41899557617478392992009-05-28T00:02:44.160-07:002009-05-28T00:02:44.160-07:00How are you calculating velocity? From which data ...How are you calculating velocity? From which data sources?pwm76https://www.blogger.com/profile/06360404038525306119noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83104609319337837792009-05-27T19:32:24.438-07:002009-05-27T19:32:24.438-07:00Scott-
The BDI is directly related to the industri...Scott-<br />The BDI is directly related to the industrialization of emerging markets, namely China and India. The container (box ship) market, which is more OECD oriented, is still flat on its back and nobody expects it to pick up any time soon. The critical difference is the way that emerging markets are doing things versus the way the developed world is doing things. China's stimulus is $400Donny Baseballhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08040288585224426073noreply@blogger.com