tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post4056654030315119762..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Productivity is the missing ingredientScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-26573718497047388982016-02-09T10:31:49.283-08:002016-02-09T10:31:49.283-08:00Thanks for the reply, Scott. The $64,000 question ...Thanks for the reply, Scott. The $64,000 question for me is this: Why don't the central banks acknowledge this publicly and throw in the towel on QE? I would argue that they really believe in their own omnipotence. I can find nothing in Janet Yellen's talk to suggest that she thinks the Fed has become a second- or third-order factor in the economy. Even the Japanese central bank is still K T Cathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10259428595745509790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-56019159397727106272016-02-09T09:27:20.145-08:002016-02-09T09:27:20.145-08:00KT Cat: Sounds to me like your experience is a goo...KT Cat: Sounds to me like your experience is a good validation of Rand's teachings. As for central banks, I don't think they've "failed." I think that what we have learned is that central banks can only do so much. They can't stimulate growth by moving interest rates up or down. They have two central functions: providing a stable currency and being lenders of last resortScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9935478009321429392016-02-09T05:33:49.875-08:002016-02-09T05:33:49.875-08:00Scott, thanks for sharing your experience and wisd...Scott, thanks for sharing your experience and wisdom with us. I always appreciate your balanced and well-considered take on the markets and global economy. <br /><br />Compliments in comments are always followed by disagreements, but as those were sincere, I hope this is collegial in tone. :-)<br /><br />What happens when regulations become oppressive? From what I've seen, economically K T Cathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10259428595745509790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24560181102568776192016-02-08T17:19:12.558-08:002016-02-08T17:19:12.558-08:00William: after-tax corporate profits according to ...William: after-tax corporate profits according to the BEA are what's important to me. In Q3/15 they were $1.784 trillion (at an annualized rate), and that's up 1.3% from the year prior. Over the previous two years they are up at an annualized rate of 2.8%. According to S&P 500 EPS, after-tax profits fell 2% in the year ending January 2015. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14098475406710303852016-02-08T17:13:39.870-08:002016-02-08T17:13:39.870-08:00Deluded by an theocratic fixation on tight money, ...Deluded by an theocratic fixation on tight money, the Fed suffocating prosperity.<br /><br />It is instructive to recall that in 1992 Milton Friedman wrote an editorial for The Wall Street Journal. The Fed had just cut interest rates from 10% to 3%, and inflation was running at about 3%. Milton Friedman bashed the Fed...for being too tight.<br /><br />This constant bleating for tighter money whenBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65218967843907556142016-02-08T15:01:58.023-08:002016-02-08T15:01:58.023-08:00I posted the data below on 16 DEC 2015. On a TOTAL...I posted the data below on 16 DEC 2015. On a TOTAL, pre-tax profits basis, not the per share basis, US corporate profits have been weakening since Q2 of 2015. I feel this provides a better view than per share profits which are inflated by stock buy backs. <br />--------------------------------------------------------------------<br />Bureau of Economic Analysis - National Income and Product Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40506986013551898782016-02-08T11:49:05.441-08:002016-02-08T11:49:05.441-08:00Earnings are gruesome -- something is very wrong w...Earnings are gruesome -- something is very wrong with the US economy...<br /><br />http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/02/08/no-profit-relief-in-sight/McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84941514361539716452016-02-06T18:39:03.239-08:002016-02-06T18:39:03.239-08:00BTW...I'm just a backward white male clinging ...BTW...I'm just a backward white male clinging to the past as Barack describes. LOL. I do appreciate the dialogue, though, and respect your position. Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3773647005565256982016-02-06T18:33:36.277-08:002016-02-06T18:33:36.277-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73833632171448717182016-02-06T18:29:54.934-08:002016-02-06T18:29:54.934-08:00We just disagree. I'm going with what the Fou...We just disagree. I'm going with what the Founders wrote, and with common law, and with the specific purposeful striking out of natural born status for foreign born citizens by the very people who invented the nation. I want to conserve the spirit of their intent. They were smarter than any politician Ive seen, and i take great comfort in the protections they put in place for me. I think Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48305125899932753032016-02-06T18:00:30.027-08:002016-02-06T18:00:30.027-08:00Johnny BD--go get 'em. Yes Cruz, who has been ...Johnny BD--go get 'em. Yes Cruz, who has been Bible-thumping in Iowa, opening speeches with Scripture, had no problem at all sticking the knife into Ben Carson's back, his fellow Christian.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79228052935422334732016-02-06T17:46:32.318-08:002016-02-06T17:46:32.318-08:00From what read, there is some sexism in the curren...From what read, there is some sexism in the current yet antiquated law, which is admittedly foggy, and that is a US father overseas sires US citizens, but a US mother overseas is considered to have birthed foreigners.<br /><br />It is a bit puzzling that Cruz maintained his (dual) Canadian citizenship until 2015. Keeping his options open, I guess. But then, at least Cruz banks his money in the Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46082473100141160352016-02-06T16:21:01.925-08:002016-02-06T16:21:01.925-08:00Sorry, but that is not nearly as compelling as thi...Sorry, but that is not nearly as compelling as this one:<br /><br />http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/yes-ted-cruz-can-be-president<br /><br />As Shapiro argues in another article (http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/ted-cruzs-canadian-play)<br /><br />"Cruz’s eligibility isn’t a hard constitutional question. Under Article II, Section 1, to be eligible for the presidency, Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13986039576034390732016-02-06T15:20:58.328-08:002016-02-06T15:20:58.328-08:00I know that one. Its the famous one being referen...I know that one. Its the famous one being referenced a lot, but this Washington Post editorial is a pretty compelling rebuttal to those two Harvard guys....especially in the links within.<br /><br />https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ted-cruz-is-not-eligible-to-be-president/2016/01/12/1484a7d0-b7af-11e5-99f3-184bc379b12d_story.htmlJohnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20549709605275087442016-02-06T12:46:50.430-08:002016-02-06T12:46:50.430-08:00Check out this Harvard Law Review article on the s...Check out this Harvard Law Review article on the subject of "natural born citizen." My daughter automatically became a natural born citizen of the U.S., and the U.S. Embassy in Buenos Aires had no hesitation in issuing her a birth certificate testifying to that fact. <br /><br />http://harvardlawreview.org/2015/03/on-the-meaning-of-natural-born-citizen/<br /><br />I have read quite a Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-61910674603436029572016-02-06T11:32:12.955-08:002016-02-06T11:32:12.955-08:00I respectfully disagree that its well established....I respectfully disagree that its well established. Nothing has been settled on this matter, because it hasn't been challenged. I think the weight of evidence rests on a requirement for birth on US soil. Some judge is going to end up ruling on this. Maybe it will be "ObamaCare Roberts", whom Cruz vetted for Supreme Court Justice for the Bush administration.<br /><br />When the Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34352140705802563952016-02-06T08:09:17.840-08:002016-02-06T08:09:17.840-08:00Johnny BD: Good points all, except for Cruz. Anyon...Johnny BD: Good points all, except for Cruz. Anyone born to a U.S. citizen is a "natural born" citizen regardless of where he or she is born. I learned this 40 years ago when my daughter was born in Argentina. This is a well-established fact. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-220859213923917322016-02-06T05:39:35.037-08:002016-02-06T05:39:35.037-08:00Meanwhile, back at the ranch...both the "winn...Meanwhile, back at the ranch...both the "winning" candidates in this season's very first Primary are accused of rigging the results. Right outta the chute! There is video evidence of both occuring that anyone can watch on YouTube. Nothing is done about it. Contested results, and markets reprice.<br /><br />And just for a bonus:<br /><br />The PUB winner is foreign born, (not a Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78040771179660541472016-02-06T05:12:50.228-08:002016-02-06T05:12:50.228-08:00Great post.
BTW, the national security R&D bu...Great post.<br /><br />BTW, the national security R&D budget is $100 billion a year. I prefer to end that completely, and just piggy-back on private-sector developments, which are incredibly rapid (GPS, drones, smart phones, better materials and batteries, Internet etc). <br /><br />But, if we are going spend $100 billion year on R&D, why not in the form of X-prizes for inventions that Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78316044857338367282016-02-05T17:46:32.011-08:002016-02-05T17:46:32.011-08:00Who said Romney's plan was good? In any event ...Who said Romney's plan was good? In any event we could have expanded the market even more by just giving people vouchers, without disrupting everyone else. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75585729327002533542016-02-05T16:52:48.230-08:002016-02-05T16:52:48.230-08:00 I agree about the Middle East though I agree about the Middle East though Lawyer in NJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02920739130504981369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80877749276151134672016-02-05T16:51:49.743-08:002016-02-05T16:51:49.743-08:00Come on, Romney's plan was the same. In many... Come on, Romney's plan was the same. In many ways it expands the free market by enabling more people to access healthcare who otherwise couldn't afford it If they actually seek preventive care, that saves money. Lawyer in NJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02920739130504981369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69283998649652548912016-02-05T14:44:34.516-08:002016-02-05T14:44:34.516-08:00Mark: I would concede that it is difficult if not ...Mark: I would concede that it is difficult if not impossible to fully and accurately measure productivity, since so much of what is new (e.g., smartphones, which replace dozens of other things and change our lives in so many ways) adds up to qualitative differences that are not easily quantified. Surely technology has added measurably to our collective productivity, but perhaps it is not fully Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-4691270689721557502016-02-05T14:29:38.619-08:002016-02-05T14:29:38.619-08:00It seems stunning that in this golden age of techn...It seems stunning that in this golden age of technology, access to information, data and people anywhere + anytime that productivity can be so low. Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01728690047712146177noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75606151673869865302016-02-05T13:19:52.093-08:002016-02-05T13:19:52.093-08:00Great post. I would love to see a measure of the ...Great post. I would love to see a measure of the recovery based on the effectiveness of the congress- i.e. bills passed and number of days worked and level of the filibuster in use. Since we do have an administration and a congress. <br />For example, I note that the PLUNGE in the non-farm productivity took two nose dives: 1. at the start of the recession which was relatively flat after the Joel Parkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14091085061898303059noreply@blogger.com