tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post4016233469018578754..comments2024-03-19T02:45:37.685-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Obama's "New Era of Responsiblity"Scott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46422101466449921922009-03-01T06:19:00.000-08:002009-03-01T06:19:00.000-08:00Scott.Please keep up the good work.You know you're...Scott.<BR/>Please keep up the good work.<BR/><BR/>You know you're needed when some people actually believe that the government confiscating my money is somehow better for the economy than me keeping my money and spending it as I see fit - like in my business for example.<BR/><BR/>I am one of those small business owners who pay taxes as a self employed. Every dollar that government takes from me bob wrighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09546025277161775062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28677863073844487652009-02-27T16:19:00.000-08:002009-02-27T16:19:00.000-08:00Jon S.,Top marginal personal and capital gains tax...Jon S.,<BR/>Top marginal personal and capital gains tax rates were increased in 1934/1936, 1942/1944 and 1950/1951. GDP growth was stellar in 1934-1937, 1942-1945 and 1950-1953. (Please don't feed me the totally irrelevant line "but two of these periods were times of war.") Marginal tax rates are my research interest. If there is any empirical research that suggests that lowering top marginal taxMark A. Sadowskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13147923641894915172noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62622008449757610342009-02-27T11:14:00.000-08:002009-02-27T11:14:00.000-08:00Buffett proves that just because you're rich doesn...Buffett proves that just because you're rich doesn't mean you're smart, especially when it comes to tax policy.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10308714431576458922009-02-27T08:54:00.000-08:002009-02-27T08:54:00.000-08:00Re: Bill GrossIf memory serves, he was also lookin...Re: Bill Gross<BR/>If memory serves, he was also looking for a long-term extension of the bear market in stocks right around the lows of 2003. Don't know why anyone pays any attention to a bond manager's predictions about the stock market. I have a great deal of respect for Gross's ability to manage bond money, but like a lot of other celebs, he seems compelled to offer opinions outisde his Don Harrisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17754112569609750210noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71694758033155245172009-02-27T08:35:00.000-08:002009-02-27T08:35:00.000-08:00Don't forget that Obama's own economic expert, Chr...Don't forget that Obama's own economic expert, Christina Romer, has done empirical research that shows tax cuts have a powerful impact on economic growth. Where is she, by the way? Under the bus already?Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80966820706219886952009-02-27T07:12:00.000-08:002009-02-27T07:12:00.000-08:00Sorry, I posted too hastily. I threw in the 1920s...Sorry, I posted too hastily. I threw in the 1920s right after I said let's look at data since the New Deal! So I'll amend my post to say let's look at data since the end of World War I -- good save, right?!!Jon S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/14840074248344452572noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52273752234627901002009-02-27T04:49:00.000-08:002009-02-27T04:49:00.000-08:00It's instructive that Mark only posits the Clinton...It's instructive that Mark only posits the Clinton years for his command economy theory that higher tax rates lead to more income growth and federal revenue. As Scott implied, income and federal receipts grew despite higher taxes, not b/c of them, due to other factors (dot-com and tech boom, cap gains rate cuts, etc).<BR/><BR/>Why not look at how well tax hikes have done since the New Deal, Jon S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/14840074248344452572noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69019793544322188292009-02-26T22:47:00.000-08:002009-02-26T22:47:00.000-08:00Mark: Those are all the key questions. I agree wit...Mark: Those are all the key questions. I agree with you that we are not facing calamity, and there are some scenarios that aren't so bad and lead to good things eventually. <BR/><BR/>The best scenario would be that the market and the country wake up to what is going on and his plan runs into trouble in Congress. Obama gets the message and back off and/or tones things down. The Republicans get Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54635644776984336922009-02-26T22:40:00.000-08:002009-02-26T22:40:00.000-08:00Hi Scott,The "Sum of All Fears" for the market is ...Hi Scott,<BR/><BR/>The "Sum of All Fears" for the market is an excellent way to describe the direction Obama is trying to take us -- probably conveying a more serious tone than "Government Gone Wild."<BR/><BR/>It seems to me that your concerns are reasonable that these big new spending programs will just keep getting bigger, increased tax rates won't bring in the expected revenues, productivity Mark Gerberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07980096984624964261noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46600640219223538162009-02-26T18:41:00.000-08:002009-02-26T18:41:00.000-08:00Mark: Higher tax rates under Clinton were not nece...Mark: Higher tax rates under Clinton were not necessarily the source of faster revenue growth. Don't forget the significant cut in capital gains taxes in 1997, coupled with the huge decline in capgains taxes on houses. Capgains revenue was literally off the charts during 1997-2000. The dot-com boom also contributed to gigantic revenue gains. <BR/><BR/>Obama is projecting multi-year declines in Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90336158638609316942009-02-26T18:14:00.000-08:002009-02-26T18:14:00.000-08:00"What if higher tax rates don't elicit higher reve..."What if higher tax rates don't elicit higher revenues? What if spending just keeps ratcheting higher, as it always has in the past? What if interest rates rise, making trillion dollar deficits massively expensive to finance? What if an expansion of government slows the growth of productivity, which in turn results in an economy that grows below "potential" for many years to come?"<BR/><BR/>1) Mark A. Sadowskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13147923641894915172noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50452003756487935932009-02-26T17:54:00.000-08:002009-02-26T17:54:00.000-08:00I'm reminded of a comment that Gross made sometime...I'm reminded of a comment that Gross made sometime in 2002 I believe, as credit spreads were soaring and corporate bond markets were a miserable place to be. He laid out the case for why corporate bonds would never recover and investors who bought them would never see the light of day. It was a new era, etc. The next year corporate bonds were stellar performers.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57131890100646580412009-02-26T17:26:00.000-08:002009-02-26T17:26:00.000-08:00btw interesting article citing Bill Gross..."thing...btw interesting article citing Bill Gross...<BR/><BR/>"things will never be the same. Risk taking has been destroyed and any animal spirits must come from Washington. Global growth rates -- low, low, low -- asset classes will be readjusted for that outlook. That is -- stocks will be more of a subordinated income vehicle as opposed to a 'stocks for the long run' growth vehicle."<BR/><BR/>http://Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47163390454174776792009-02-26T17:10:00.000-08:002009-02-26T17:10:00.000-08:00I think you have summed up concisely where the mar...I think you have summed up concisely where the market seems to be headed. There already exists unprecedented headwinds, but the New New Deal is an another animal entirely...Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67772997748258475652009-02-26T17:01:00.000-08:002009-02-26T17:01:00.000-08:00Ha! Why didn't I think of that?Ha! Why didn't I think of that?Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71086385252007651442009-02-26T16:48:00.000-08:002009-02-26T16:48:00.000-08:00Scott,I think by "A New Era of Responsibility," Ob...Scott,<BR/><BR/>I think by "A New Era of Responsibility," Obama means the rich are going to be "responsible" for financing failed Liberal programs. "Their fair share.." and all that.Paulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06843411100678811292noreply@blogger.com