tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post389235322854750771..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Key financial indicators are healthyScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90889018906404010752019-01-31T09:49:11.630-08:002019-01-31T09:49:11.630-08:003mo/10yr and 2yr/10yr treasuries too close for FED...3mo/10yr and 2yr/10yr treasuries too close for FED hiking absent big inflation expectations.<br /><br />Also 10 yr still weak.<br /><br />Good data or not seems something's still not quite making sense.<br /><br />Maybe if we see 10 and 30 yr treasury yields strengthen this might look "stronger." Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-26391296212842335172019-01-30T22:24:55.438-08:002019-01-30T22:24:55.438-08:00The Donald J. Trump stock market bottom of Dec 24 ...The Donald J. Trump stock market bottom of Dec 24 is still intact.<br />He called it.<br /><br />Apple revenue declined, and they lowered guidance. Stock up over 6% anyway.<br />This market wants to be strong.<br /><br />Don't blow it, Powell!Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-43055145639422664632019-01-27T20:57:58.864-08:002019-01-27T20:57:58.864-08:00Marcus is funny because I think he is clueless on ...Marcus is funny because I think he is clueless on economics, finance and governments. <br />They are tough subjects, he is still working on the getting all the green MM's out of the bag without opening it....so he has an excuse...<br /><br />Europe is going downhill, which is good for the US, money flows from Europe into US business as it knows where the beef is......<br /><br />The economy honestcreditguyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04753136939700776989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15877303321075112982019-01-24T13:11:03.187-08:002019-01-24T13:11:03.187-08:00Good fiction’s job is to comfort the disturbed and...Good fiction’s job is to comfort the disturbed and disturb the comfortable.randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57278582969000510792019-01-24T09:22:26.909-08:002019-01-24T09:22:26.909-08:00give us the the foxes, the little foxes, that spoi...give us the the foxes, the little foxes, that spoil our vines, for our vines have tender grapes. marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36906652573300486402019-01-24T07:27:53.263-08:002019-01-24T07:27:53.263-08:00Correction:
They point to long term trends, not wh...Correction:<br />They point to long term trends, not what the<br />financial markets will do in the NEXT YEAR,<br />so they are usually ignored.<br /><br />Not my fault -- my cat walked across my computer again.The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37079752725723147952019-01-24T07:26:08.249-08:002019-01-24T07:26:08.249-08:00"If there were any iron-clad leading indicato..."If there were any iron-clad leading indicators out there, <br />the market would have discovered them long ago, <br />and that would have long-ago rendered them nearly useless. <br />Markets move when the future turns out to be different <br />from what was expected"<br /><br />Disagree:<br />There ARE iron-clad leading indicators out there.<br /><br />They point to long term trends, The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-26672792211021662882019-01-24T04:28:34.101-08:002019-01-24T04:28:34.101-08:00"If there were any iron-clad leading indicato..."If there were any iron-clad leading indicators out there, the market would have discovered them long ago, and that would have long-ago rendered them nearly useless"<br /><br />Absolutely true! Thank you, Scott. stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17022366785118117782019-01-23T18:21:32.110-08:002019-01-23T18:21:32.110-08:00steve: one needs to look all over the place for cl...steve: one needs to look all over the place for clues. Any fact you run across is obviously dated, and I know of no indicator which is guaranteed to be a leading indicator. Common sense is a key ingredient to predicting the future based on current realities.<br /><br />As for weakness in Europe, there is no law that says a weak Europe is a leading indicator for a weak US. <br /><br />If there Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-61975927935778671552019-01-23T03:56:59.108-08:002019-01-23T03:56:59.108-08:00Cliff, I visited your site and viewed the graph an...Cliff, I visited your site and viewed the graph and indeed you have a point. That said, leading indicators-which any real time graph will show, do not look into the future but rather state the present and it is up to some speculation to gauge their meaning. <br /><br />Do do bring up a salient point re looking at non-US based data for clues. Scott, care to comment?stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3257751192062728062019-01-22T13:29:48.641-08:002019-01-22T13:29:48.641-08:00Steve
They are called "leading indicators&quo...Steve<br />They are called "leading indicators"<br />There is one at the URL I posted in my comment.The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47212311698946838702019-01-22T13:00:56.581-08:002019-01-22T13:00:56.581-08:00Matthew, don't waste your typing on marcus. Un...Matthew, don't waste your typing on marcus. Until Scott decides to deny his comments, they'll continue. I actually have grown to anticipate them. Dare I say I chuckle from time to time?stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33850727726131358002019-01-22T12:54:44.570-08:002019-01-22T12:54:44.570-08:00MG Hammer: You, as is the wont of people who use ...MG Hammer: You, as is the wont of people who use fake latin, misread the reference to fake news. Pangloss knows it was fake news to accuse me of something I never said. Plus he knows its circular to tell the fireman to lead by example and stop shouting fire. <br /><br />I grind no axe, but in your search for the "hero" i guess i grind your gears. <br /><br />Keep begging, it will marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34737200625742004372019-01-22T12:29:32.750-08:002019-01-22T12:29:32.750-08:00Marcus: There was nothing at all in Scott's ch...Marcus: There was nothing at all in Scott's charts that weren't facts. Pure facts. To the extent Scott interpreted or opined on those facts, those interpretations or opinions were clearly delineated. And this is bolstered by the fact that Scott knows his audience are adults well-versed in the risks of the markets. Too, I'm nearly certain that all of these people read market Grechsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08898953158865778397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23504354322515386522019-01-22T11:25:24.814-08:002019-01-22T11:25:24.814-08:00"The charts show the past"
Cliff, surel..."The charts show the past"<br /><br />Cliff, surely you're not suggesting that you have charts that show the future?stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53661354254168398112019-01-22T10:57:23.456-08:002019-01-22T10:57:23.456-08:00This analysis is incomplete for two reasons:
(1)
...This analysis is incomplete for two reasons:<br /><br />(1)<br />The charts show the past -- <br />which always looks good <br />before a recession starts <br />-- that's why so few people<br />ever correctly predict a recession!<br /><br />(2)<br />The charts look at the United States<br />as if all the other nations don't exist.<br /><br />If you consider the global economy<br />in The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68267005173452792042019-01-22T08:04:21.994-08:002019-01-22T08:04:21.994-08:00pangloss: shame on you for fake news. you know m...pangloss: shame on you for fake news. you know my point. you are leading the sheep to slaughter. albeit with no malice, but with gross negligence spawned by your vanity. the bonfire of the vanities indeed. marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66751435710230010072019-01-21T22:50:09.703-08:002019-01-21T22:50:09.703-08:00Thank you very much for your article. Very useful....Thank you very much for your article. Very useful. You provide clear and objective references to avoid falling into market moods. Thank you.Enrique Graciahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01580992525751676135noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15398322779844093112019-01-21T14:50:14.330-08:002019-01-21T14:50:14.330-08:00Marcus: I guess you'll have lead by example an...Marcus: I guess you'll have lead by example and stop reading this blog you insist is worse than worthless.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82539430508540823222019-01-21T08:43:12.281-08:002019-01-21T08:43:12.281-08:00read flash boys guys. stop reading this nonsense....read flash boys guys. stop reading this nonsense. marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46840413629430048142019-01-21T06:02:06.141-08:002019-01-21T06:02:06.141-08:00Scott, thanks so much for posting. You simplify t...Scott, thanks so much for posting. You simplify the status of the economy very concisely with data and expertise. It is great to find such clarity of thought process amongst all of the noise in the media. I look forward to your posts. Thanks!Mnjoe123gobearshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08139659327422494377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22198511417173349322019-01-20T16:30:16.485-08:002019-01-20T16:30:16.485-08:00so boring. go back to pleading for the FED to rai...so boring. go back to pleading for the FED to raise every asset price to the moonmarcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69498108945878355862019-01-20T06:09:08.957-08:002019-01-20T06:09:08.957-08:00Scott, thank you for posting. You’re on record as...Scott, thank you for posting. You’re on record as a bull with no recession forthcoming which I agree with. How about posting your favorite charts and/or indicators that would indicate a recession and bear market may be imminent? I haven’t seen you post many sentiment statistics except perhaps the VIX. It seems these may as good as any in predicting the near term direction of the market. I also Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08836939905819404503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28567957443673385282019-01-19T19:51:02.033-08:002019-01-19T19:51:02.033-08:00I expect equities to retrace 50% to 100% then off ...I expect equities to retrace 50% to 100% then off to the races higher for the rest of the year. The drags/worries on equities will resolve themselves over time.<br /><br />TimAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10875301742709470137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70406666060437385632019-01-19T15:37:36.488-08:002019-01-19T15:37:36.488-08:00These are my favorite favorite posts. They say so...These are my favorite favorite posts. They say so much and keep everything g is such a rest perspective.<br /><br />Thank you Scott. Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01261213308707778791noreply@blogger.com