tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post3876802144810634064..comments2024-03-19T02:45:37.685-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Why a recession is not likely, and the Fed has no reason to ease furtherScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-32105046527876975252012-06-10T14:02:47.030-07:002012-06-10T14:02:47.030-07:00Thanks SteveThanks SteveScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9577273967556435342012-06-10T13:49:14.444-07:002012-06-10T13:49:14.444-07:00Great insight as always Scott.
SteveGreat insight as always Scott.<br />SteveSteve Fultonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17201413605319579983noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79397605530952739402012-06-05T11:40:16.440-07:002012-06-05T11:40:16.440-07:00Re: deleveraging. Yes, we have had a lot of deleve...Re: deleveraging. Yes, we have had a lot of deleveraging in recent years but that's not necessarily a bad or scary thing. Wanting to deleverage can be thought of as an increase in the demand for money. (Leveraging up is a decrease in the demand for money.) We have seen a huge increase in the world's demand for dollar liquidity in recent yearsr. Fortunately, the Fed has increased massivelyScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62083339080482065672012-06-05T11:28:00.474-07:002012-06-05T11:28:00.474-07:00Hans asks: 'Have the Central Banks found a way...Hans asks: 'Have the Central Banks found a way to avoid further recessions?'<br />Unless this is a trick question: their credit expansions cause booms that inevitably turn into busts. It would be correct to state that they are the proximate cause of recessions.trotskyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01986404012008529102noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83457560219943565492012-06-05T11:23:25.579-07:002012-06-05T11:23:25.579-07:00Yield curves do not invert during secular debt del...Yield curves do not invert during secular debt deleveraging contractions - I refer you to Japan for evidence. <br />Moreover, you are referring to a batch of data of a past - the post WW2 era - that is simply not relevant to the current predicament. The only historical period that can remotely be of relevance to the current situation is the Great Depression, the last major debt deleveraging eventtrotskyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01986404012008529102noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5977873908230753932012-06-05T10:23:42.365-07:002012-06-05T10:23:42.365-07:00http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/20...http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/2010/2010-5.cfm<br /><br />Start here to learn how they figure 5 yr 5 yr out inflation expectations.Squirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38199118846628387922012-06-05T08:49:17.674-07:002012-06-05T08:49:17.674-07:00Donny,
If you buy anything longer than 5yrs, you ...Donny,<br /><br />If you buy anything longer than 5yrs, you want to know what's going to happen 5 years out as well as the immediate 5 years. Then just look at 10 years. No reason to look at 5 years out forward only. I don't know why the Fed will care about inflation 5 years out more than the next 5 years if it shows deflation risk.Pragmatic Investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08952759176339628535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48634287455313280052012-06-05T08:42:15.398-07:002012-06-05T08:42:15.398-07:00For those really interested in recession forecasti...For those really interested in recession forecasting...subscribe to <br />RecessionAlert...I have no vested<br />interest in the service...but find it<br />very helpful in following the 9 to 10<br />models that attempt to forecast recessions...broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17510948491117506660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87009395019857769232012-06-05T08:39:17.596-07:002012-06-05T08:39:17.596-07:00Scott, Thanks for taking my suggestion yesterday a...Scott, Thanks for taking my suggestion yesterday and updating these likliehood of recession charts.Don Harrisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17754112569609750210noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47572522691255375042012-06-05T08:25:45.178-07:002012-06-05T08:25:45.178-07:00Pragmatic-
What? If you are buying anything longe...Pragmatic-<br />What? If you are buying anything longer dated than a 5 yr. bond, you sure as hell want to know the 5yr inflation expectation 5 yrs. out...Donny Baseballhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08040288585224426073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6930213353119572382012-06-05T06:58:34.809-07:002012-06-05T06:58:34.809-07:00Thank you for the interesting and lengthy read, Mr...Thank you for the interesting and lengthy read, Mr Grannis.<br /><br />"In other words, tight monetary policy has been the proximate cause of every recession in the past 50 years."<br /><br />Have the Central Banks found a way to avoid further cessions? <br /><br />I thought CDWs are insurance for bond issuers in case of missed payments or default? <br /><br />I do not know what a tightHanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68404166840011158222012-06-05T06:16:21.482-07:002012-06-05T06:16:21.482-07:00"mmanagedaccounts said...
Where is Benjamin? ..."mmanagedaccounts said...<br />Where is Benjamin? I haven't seen him post for some time. I miss his persistent insistance on more Fed easing and our need to tolerate a little more inflation, and his warnings that we're in danger of becoming Japan."<br /><br />Ben Jamin, is now an adviser for the Bank of Nippon..He told me that he has also had a Yen for it!Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41678217979290844852012-06-05T06:14:15.256-07:002012-06-05T06:14:15.256-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60096629332309853502012-06-05T05:52:43.036-07:002012-06-05T05:52:43.036-07:00If I have to guess, you are referring to 5yr infla...If I have to guess, you are referring to 5yr inflation expectations 5yrs out, in other words inflation from 2017 to 2022. That's like light years away. Inflation expectation for the next 5 years is much lower.Pragmatic Investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08952759176339628535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37513318246089608082012-06-04T22:14:08.360-07:002012-06-04T22:14:08.360-07:00Our beautiful Naples provided apartments and homes...Our beautiful Naples provided apartments and homes are among the advisable joint housing in the Naples extent. With our warm and deliberate staff, you testament be provided relocation options to fit your requirements and be healthy to select your perfect short-term or long-term accommodations.<br /><a href="//naplescorporatehousing.net/" rel="nofollow"> naples corporate housing</a>jimihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04502959747701682479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51261815504951318202012-06-04T21:15:44.038-07:002012-06-04T21:15:44.038-07:00Although I was an early advocate for monetary expa...Although I was an early advocate for monetary expansion, that path was rejected in favor of austerity instead -- given that reality, the US should stay the course on austerity -- that means no money to bailout California, no money for mortgage holders, and no money for infrastructure development -- if austerity is to work, what is needed instead is a 40% cut in Federal and state spending -- that McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17132298857748478512012-06-04T20:21:03.235-07:002012-06-04T20:21:03.235-07:00That is not how forward inflation expectations are...That is not how forward inflation expectations are calculated.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33090108621030347162012-06-04T18:45:10.479-07:002012-06-04T18:45:10.479-07:00Check out the bloomberg web site yourself. 5yr Tre...Check out the bloomberg web site yourself. 5yr Treasury is at 0.68 while 5yr TIPS is at -1.03. You do the math.<br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/Pragmatic Investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08952759176339628535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13584687889468157462012-06-04T18:37:44.584-07:002012-06-04T18:37:44.584-07:00Where is Benjamin? I haven't seen him post for...Where is Benjamin? I haven't seen him post for some time. I miss his persistent insistance on more Fed easing and our need to tolerate a little more inflation, and his warnings that we're in danger of becoming Japan.mmanagedaccountshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08188469703346980431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50306467233884793232012-06-04T18:06:31.556-07:002012-06-04T18:06:31.556-07:00The 5-yr, 5-yr forward inflation expectation I cit...The 5-yr, 5-yr forward inflation expectation I cite is calculated by Bloomberg, and my own calculation confirms that. Moreover, this is the measure of inflation expectations that the Fed most prefers to follow.<br /><br />I think I made it clear that the level of the real Fed funds rate is only one of many variables that can point to the likelihood of recession.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69670854641284212582012-06-04T18:00:49.784-07:002012-06-04T18:00:49.784-07:00you got your facts wrong. 5 year inflation expecta...you got your facts wrong. 5 year inflation expectation is NOT at 2.6%. It's only 1.7%. <br /><br />Pretty much all you are saying is that as long as the Fed keeps rate at 0, we will never have recessions. You make economics sound like kindergarten stuff.Pragmatic Investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08952759176339628535noreply@blogger.com