tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post3861097127792493139..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: A decent jobs reportScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34296657820443373852012-01-06T10:28:34.975-08:002012-01-06T10:28:34.975-08:00@Unknown, the US employment to population ratio im...@Unknown, the US employment to population ratio improved over the 12-month period ending in December -- what's wrong with that conclusion? Quibbling about adjusted vs unadusted is best resolved with the raw data, at least in my opinion -- use the seasonally adjusted data if that is more useful for you -- incidentally, my chart linked above reports the annual change as of December each year -McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-32101922927367745812012-01-06T10:23:32.257-08:002012-01-06T10:23:32.257-08:00@William McKibbin:
If you're using the unadju...@William McKibbin:<br /><br />If you're using the unadjusted numbers to make your conclusion about the direction of the labor market, you might want to pay attention to what the unadjusted number of employed <b>always</b> does between November and December: It goes down. Thus, your conclusion that things got worse in December based on that figure is fallacious, because it <i>always</i> gets Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22393198372946247902012-01-06T10:10:07.268-08:002012-01-06T10:10:07.268-08:00@Benjamin, here is a link to some Federal jobs tha...@Benjamin, here is a link to some Federal jobs that could be cut right away...<br /><br />http://wjmc.blogspot.com/2011/08/tsa-thousands-standing-around.htmlMcKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87809781917520180882012-01-06T10:02:32.901-08:002012-01-06T10:02:32.901-08:00I mis-spoke. While I think unemployement figures ...I mis-spoke. While I think unemployement figures are manipulated, total jobs, non-seaonally adjusted compared to a year ago, is a positive indicator of the health of the economy. It doesn't tell you the quality of jobs nor if there are enough jobs but the quantity of jobs continues to increase.<br /><br />I place a high value on technology defense spending. <br /><br />As a disabled vet Squirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38687802280822476242012-01-06T10:00:47.913-08:002012-01-06T10:00:47.913-08:00@Unknown, I get my numbers from the BLS -- my numb...@Unknown, I get my numbers from the BLS -- my numbers were downloaded this morning -- all numbers shown are unadjusted -- my numbers are correct on that basis.McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47023785996298368882012-01-06T09:41:01.859-08:002012-01-06T09:41:01.859-08:00@William McKibbin:
I don't know where you'...@William McKibbin:<br /><br />I don't know where you're getting your employment-to-population ratio from. The <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm" rel="nofollow">BLS data shows</a> the employment-to-population ration unchanged at 58.5% compared to November, and up by 0.2% compared to December of last year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14080594571345621072012-01-06T09:36:01.343-08:002012-01-06T09:36:01.343-08:00For jobs, I only look at employment to population ...For jobs, I only look at employment to population (over 16 years old)now. Unemployment figures are political. See dshort’s chart. We are back to the employment ratio from the end of WWII to 1980 (roughly). This 58.5% is normal without stimulus, I am guessing. The 65% high is due to stimulus. Humphrey-Hawkins passed in 1978. The stimulus started after Volker put the country into a recession Squirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52667120822552302152012-01-06T09:18:23.115-08:002012-01-06T09:18:23.115-08:00@Benjamin, the Federal job numbers you cite are th...@Benjamin, the Federal job numbers you cite are the center of gravity for current fiscal and monetary policy -- everything the Fed and Congress has done in the past few years has been designed to protect Federalism itself -- the only people who are enjoying a "pass" from the ongoing Main Street depression are everyone you refer to in your numbers, plus the defense establishment at largeMcKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38173280374169737672012-01-06T09:15:49.189-08:002012-01-06T09:15:49.189-08:00Hear is another look at the ADP employment numbers...Hear is another look at the ADP employment numbers...<br /><br />http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/nonfarm-payroll-200000-labor-force.htmlHanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-27800149257701485962012-01-06T09:14:25.140-08:002012-01-06T09:14:25.140-08:00However, the US employment to population ratio for...However, the US employment to population ratio for December 2011 was down from the previous month 58.7% to 58.5% -- more at:<br /><br />http://wjmc.blogspot.com/2012/01/us-employment-to-population-ratio-ends.html<br /><br />Until the US employment to population ratio registers solid gains, the employment story in America remains precarious...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54786458294826052812012-01-06T09:06:42.956-08:002012-01-06T09:06:42.956-08:00Told ya we'd get a 200K or more report:
Unkno...Told ya we'd get a 200K or more report:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=6616959642391988608&postID=3058818549589456106" rel="nofollow">Unknown's first comment</a><br /><br />Based on withholding tax data, I also knew November would be revised downward, and October would be revised upward, though I was expecting a larger upward revision to October. Hard to Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-88671338405303923362012-01-06T08:49:50.667-08:002012-01-06T08:49:50.667-08:00This is a note to Squire:
Squire:
Actually, Mark...This is a note to Squire:<br /><br />Squire:<br /><br />Actually, Market Monetarism is accessible, and there is a not bad Wikipedia entry on it.<br /><br />In a nutshell, you target nominal GDP growth through a transparent and explicit monetary policy.<br /><br />In today's world, the Fed would say, "We are targeting 7.5 percent nominal growth in GDP, and we will buy $100 billion a monthBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74180806469522995682012-01-06T08:33:58.493-08:002012-01-06T08:33:58.493-08:00As Perry at Carpe Diem points out, nearly all of t...As Perry at Carpe Diem points out, nearly all of the its in public employment are at the local level. <br /><br />Here is a list of federal employees by department. please start cutting, and bring a chain saw: <br /><br /><br />Defense 3,200,000<br />Veterans Affairs 240,000 <br />Homeland Security 200,000<br />Treasury 162,119 <br />Justice 124,870 <br />USDA 100,000 <br />DOT 100,000 <br /Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com