tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post378652447194996702..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Corporate profits are still very strongScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82071902388883485702011-11-23T04:33:38.655-08:002011-11-23T04:33:38.655-08:00I rather think that investors have become extremel...I rather think that investors have become extremely risk averse because of the tech bubble crash in 2000, 9/11 in 2001 and corporate malfeasance in 2002. Add to that Middle East tensions over the past decade, the housing and mortgage bubble crash in 2007-2008 and the uncertainty arising out of a huge growth in government. Now we can add Europe's debt and our debt. There's just no investormmanagedaccountshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08188469703346980431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13510424267134111012011-11-22T15:20:02.140-08:002011-11-22T15:20:02.140-08:00where is nominal income for labor?where is nominal income for labor?marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50958597893771625102011-11-22T14:58:59.411-08:002011-11-22T14:58:59.411-08:00The different between the '70s and now are int...The different between the '70s and now are interest rates. Bank then the high rates competed against stocks and made them less appealing. <br /><br />Now interest rates are so cheap that PEs should be double just to make the equation more of a debate. Stocks are clearly the cheapest asset around, but as 2000 showed us investors tend to want the most expensive investment as it has been popularMark Holderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00583540825602471042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30032055591433537892011-11-22T14:53:52.367-08:002011-11-22T14:53:52.367-08:00Excellent set of charts and analysis by Scott Gran...Excellent set of charts and analysis by Scott Grannis.<br /><br />But about corporate profits: Obama is killing Corporate America?<br /><br />Judging from these charts (in a recession no less), we are being run by pro-business fascists. <br /><br />Don't get me wrong---I am tickled pink by the rising corporate profit picture, even in tough times. This is a tribute to the private sector, Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78728518122969477322011-11-22T13:42:44.841-08:002011-11-22T13:42:44.841-08:00^
Actually, the second chart, though messier, also...^<br />Actually, the second chart, though messier, also looks like a good long-leading indicator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-27381337972565018812011-11-22T13:38:51.412-08:002011-11-22T13:38:51.412-08:00That first chart looks like a great leading indica...That first chart looks like a great leading indicator - and a long-leading one at that. Notice it peaks at least a year before a downturn materializes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74380949348291128302011-11-22T13:15:10.421-08:002011-11-22T13:15:10.421-08:00First, your wife is correct. Please let her know ...First, your wife is correct. Please let her know that we agree with her!<br /><br />Next, the corporate profits in the NIPA accounts have both a strength and a weakness. The strength is that the definition of profit in the NIPA accounts have not changed much over time. This makes long term comparisons better than a simple P/E because the fdefinition of earnings has chnaged over time with Junkyard_hawg1985https://www.blogger.com/profile/18114117558513498514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49163244186731670132011-11-22T13:10:12.268-08:002011-11-22T13:10:12.268-08:00Today's profits are largely the result of yest...Today's profits are largely the result of yesterday's investments. One problem the economy faces today and going forward is that businesses are not investing much of their profits. Yes, capex is at a new high, but it hasn't increased much at all in the past decade, even though profits have more than doubled. High tax rates relative to other industrialized countries can help explain Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36465138001772034792011-11-22T12:50:32.818-08:002011-11-22T12:50:32.818-08:00Doesn't this kind of shoot a hole in your phil...Doesn't this kind of shoot a hole in your philosophy about corporate tax rates and regulation in America? All we need is your other chart highlighting the boom in business investment and it's nail in coffin on those fantasies...Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-27584704015448967122011-11-22T11:42:00.540-08:002011-11-22T11:42:00.540-08:00Of course the last time the P/E ratio you have com...Of course the last time the P/E ratio you have come up with was at this level was in the 1970's but at that time Profits/GDP was at its low. Using low P/E's at peak profits is investment folly.NormanBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05986709079442388236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70492981736988991632011-11-22T11:25:43.804-08:002011-11-22T11:25:43.804-08:00Yeah, sorry I must agree with your wife...you are ...Yeah, sorry I must agree with your wife...you are nuts; go play outside stay away from your computer.<br /><br />BTW thanks for the very interesting analysis. One question, since profits are so high (despite the cost of Obama's massive regulation push... sarcasm) is there room for considering that profits could return to the mean.<br /><br />Just saying, profits are high, guidance for sales Frozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86977562367456999392011-11-22T11:22:48.513-08:002011-11-22T11:22:48.513-08:00"This is grist for a lot of philosophizing, w..."This is grist for a lot of philosophizing, which I might attempt at a later date."<br /><br />Please do!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com