tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post3743188431530263224..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Money velocity: the macro driver of GDPScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53665728688753403472010-01-31T09:42:11.883-08:002010-01-31T09:42:11.883-08:00Family Man: Kasriel has a bearish bias, and it sho...Family Man: Kasriel has a bearish bias, and it shows up in his belief that velocity won't pick up. I'm the opposite. But I do believe that there is good reason to expect velocity to continue to rise, and thus to be optimistic. Currency growth is a good proxy for money demand, and it has been very weak--flat, in fact, for the past 4 months. Zero interest rates are a powerful incentive for Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3010945742749949342010-01-31T01:55:24.757-08:002010-01-31T01:55:24.757-08:00On velocity, Paul Kaslier holds a view that it is ...On velocity, Paul Kaslier holds a view that it is going to be weak<br />http://alturl.com/bzxqFamily Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10304538166086313103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12858891223046049892010-01-30T10:55:15.515-08:002010-01-30T10:55:15.515-08:00brodero: you make a good point about how GDP comes...brodero: you make a good point about how GDP comes with a long lag. I think it's possible to track velocity with a shorter lag, by looking at weekly measures of M2 and currency. If they continue to grow at very slow (almost zero currently) rates while coincident measures of economic activity continue to reflect growth, then it's easy to assume that velocity is rising.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-58039041118567073312010-01-30T10:52:58.076-08:002010-01-30T10:52:58.076-08:00WEH: Since I've used M2 for this measure of ve...WEH: Since I've used M2 for this measure of velocity, it is mainly focused on "small" transactions, since M2 includes mainly funds held by individuals, not institutions.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47034157382731606602010-01-30T10:51:37.409-08:002010-01-30T10:51:37.409-08:00Family Man: Regarding the suggestion that $1.5 tri...Family Man: Regarding the suggestion that $1.5 trillion is being used to fund the carry trade: <br /><br />Perhaps this refers to the fact that China's central bank has bought about this much worth of Treasuries. China has "recycled" its trade surplus back to the U.S. market by buying Treasuries. That recycled money can be used by us to fund all sorts of things. But it is mainly Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64177533515344137642010-01-30T09:57:16.810-08:002010-01-30T09:57:16.810-08:00National accounts data provides a treasure trove o...National accounts data provides a treasure trove of data but it suffers from something that is no fault of its own. Timeliness...<br />Quarterly representations often are too late and while velocity of money is fundamentally important I find it possesses a lag time in knowledge that renders it often ususable.If you know of some data that mirrors this but can be found<br />sooner please let me broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16264819209876600052010-01-29T21:11:42.992-08:002010-01-29T21:11:42.992-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69385437167741326062010-01-29T16:38:23.495-08:002010-01-29T16:38:23.495-08:00Mr. Grannis:
Enjoyed the discussion of velocity a...Mr. Grannis:<br /><br />Enjoyed the discussion of velocity and the demand for money. <br /><br />Regarding velocity of money: have not heard a recent discussion of small transaction velocity vs. large transaction velocity. The velocity associated with transaction size and scope. Might be a good topic to discuss.<br /><br />The original “megabuck”. Super velocity money. That makes for a good W.E. Heasleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00368333904571061995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14025699579289962382010-01-29T15:08:00.566-08:002010-01-29T15:08:00.566-08:00"The Times quotes Zhu Min, deputy governor of..."The Times quotes Zhu Min, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China as saying that up to USD 1.5 Trn of USDs is being used to fund carry trade activity, particularly in emerging markets."<br />As I remember correctly you have mentioned that leverage is low in the markets. Above speaks a bit different view. I gues a hard data are difficult to get.Family Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10304538166086313103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63665084843428738552010-01-29T14:44:33.104-08:002010-01-29T14:44:33.104-08:00Bill: I don't put much stock in technical anal...Bill: I don't put much stock in technical analysis like. It didn't work last year, and why should it work this year? The fundamentals will always carry the day.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85376227517606533742010-01-29T14:39:54.439-08:002010-01-29T14:39:54.439-08:00Scott,
Do you think the January stock market retu...Scott,<br /><br />Do you think the January stock market returns predict how the rest of the year will go? (I saw one news item that says it generally is right 80% of the time)Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29093780121655005002010-01-29T14:39:53.304-08:002010-01-29T14:39:53.304-08:00Week after week, I find the best economic analysis...Week after week, I find the best economic analysis here at Calafia Beach, even when I disagree.<br /><br />Why do I read when I disagree?<br /><br />Well, it reminds of the lapsed Jew, who still went to Temple.<br /><br />A fellow Temple goer finally asked him, "Moishe, why do you go to Temple if you no longer believe in G-d?"<br /><br />And Moishe answered, "Well, just because I Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com