tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post3741822222139274028..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Debt musings and misconceptionsScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30562143925699212462011-07-17T11:12:44.937-07:002011-07-17T11:12:44.937-07:00Oops, you appointed yourself "pundit" be...Oops, you appointed yourself "pundit" before you figured out the very basics of modern money supply.<br /><br />Central banks directly control the supply of base money (except the rate at which currency is lost or destroyed). Central banks indirectly regulate the supply of broad money, by changing the supply of base money and/or the interest paid on base money when it is held in specialbuzzard beakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00115218085242434929noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79829606415936754402011-07-14T22:24:24.823-07:002011-07-14T22:24:24.823-07:00FGH: I have indeed seen the consequences of Argent...FGH: I have indeed seen the consequences of Argentine defaults and devaluations, and they are terrible. Especially for the common man, who doesn't know how to defend himself. I think what ARgentina has done over the years is akin to armed robbery, and deeply sinful. There are no trickle-down benefits from devaluation, no sir. If anything trickles down post-devaluation, it is poverty. But Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86235059960557799862011-07-12T12:18:35.944-07:002011-07-12T12:18:35.944-07:00Brodero,
Can you tell us what the data means to y...Brodero,<br /><br />Can you tell us what the data means to you regarding household debt, etc?Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36278180335518946252011-07-12T09:09:32.215-07:002011-07-12T09:09:32.215-07:00You need to look at Household debt
Service plus Go...You need to look at Household debt<br />Service plus Government Debt Service minus Annual Personal Savings to GDP....you will be surprisedbroderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54924950929491956722011-07-12T09:03:23.468-07:002011-07-12T09:03:23.468-07:00Argentina defaulted, devalued it currency, and the...Argentina defaulted, devalued it currency, and then its economy boomed. <br /><br />Not sure Greece has the devaluation option. <br /><br />People take a risk when they buy bonds. Not sure extraordinary measures should be taken to help out Greek bondholders. <br /><br />Sovereign debt may become more expensive. <br /><br />However, since there is plenty of capital in the world, not sure that Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-42188397574715950062011-07-12T08:44:26.387-07:002011-07-12T08:44:26.387-07:00Scott, while your analysis is once again spot on, ...Scott, while your analysis is once again spot on, and framed in the context of your relentlessly optimistic worldview, your conclusions regarding sovereign default are nevertheless troubling. While this may be a zero-sum game for the elite international banking class, doesn't default necessarily entail a currency devaluation? With your personal connection to Argentina, I would expect that youFGHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07732904118916982468noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34044385157389019322011-07-12T07:10:12.115-07:002011-07-12T07:10:12.115-07:00According to your logic, the US can also just go a...According to your logic, the US can also just go ahead and default and it won't necessarily cause the US GDP to fall. <br /><br />And in terms of Greece defaulting, no, you are very wrong. Most of the damage has NOT been done. A majority of Greece outstanding debts were issued prior to 2009 when yields were normal. If Greece defaults, creditors holding those issued earlier would take Pragmatic Investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08952759176339628535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53245876142410724342011-07-12T05:21:57.751-07:002011-07-12T05:21:57.751-07:00Excellent, Scott. I agree 100% in your analysis o...Excellent, Scott. I agree 100% in your analysis of debt and money. The damage has already been done. One question, though. While you address the contagion effect in a glancing fashion, this is what US markets fear. What is the exposure of US banks to European banks? Is it enough to take them down if there is a default, and if that happens what is the impact on the US economy? If the Fed Brian Wesburyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05876005862772033641noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29681459517990444542011-07-12T03:44:54.792-07:002011-07-12T03:44:54.792-07:00Tax cuts made up 42 percent of the stimulus. Those...Tax cuts made up 42 percent of the stimulus. Those cuts were eaten by higher gas prices. Not very stimulative. It stimulated profits, not hiring.<br /><br />http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29119293/ns/politics-capitol_hill/t/senate-passes-billion-stimulus-bill/Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.com