tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post3645450851926110527..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Swap spread stabilizer at workScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-42157116769121334692015-11-05T19:27:47.280-08:002015-11-05T19:27:47.280-08:00Galactic: thanks for contributing that link. I thi...Galactic: thanks for contributing that link. I think what Anonymous says is consistent with what I've been saying. When swap spreads are very low or even negative, it means that there are more people willing to take on risk (i.e., being "receivers") than there are who want to reduce risk (i.e., the payers). Accounting and regulatory issues are not optimal, and that appears to be Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59891997015160157712015-11-05T13:55:58.746-08:002015-11-05T13:55:58.746-08:00As an added course to the buffet of great informat...As an added course to the buffet of great information on this blog-- I saw this (incredibly nerdy) commentary on swap spreads. I'll need to read this a few time to absorb it...<br /><br />http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=23596Galactichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17800963310060756731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36919463674839253912015-11-04T04:07:47.529-08:002015-11-04T04:07:47.529-08:00Johhny lard dog: stick to frightening little chi...Johhny lard dog: stick to frightening little children and goats. you are much better at it.marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-88106995728489080102015-11-03T21:09:08.114-08:002015-11-03T21:09:08.114-08:00Marcusballbust:
Great call on the market last mon...Marcusballbust:<br /><br />Great call on the market last month. Dow up 9%. Best month for stocks in 4 YEARS!<br />You hit a home run, buddy!Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57190442914933428152015-11-03T09:30:39.407-08:002015-11-03T09:30:39.407-08:00For years now, I've thought that corporate mar...For years now, I've thought that corporate margins will stay higher for longer. It's true that they are historically (extremely) high. But it's also true that just about every industry has become significantly more oligarchical, dominated by a fewer number of players. It's also true that overall capital expenditures have been very low relative to corporate profits and new Grechsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08898953158865778397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66454855492593486512015-11-03T08:47:20.237-08:002015-11-03T08:47:20.237-08:00@marcusbalbus
That's what she said!
Seriousl...@marcusbalbus<br /><br />That's what she said!<br /><br />Seriously I get worried when Scott sounds so "calm" where's my favorite cheerleader...us of the doom and gloom brigade need Scott at full speed. BTW I agree, the market has been one huge wet blanket. My worry is that there's little juice left in earnings. Look at Apple -- is it reasonable to thing that they will Frozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59614953973156857642015-11-03T08:13:48.079-08:002015-11-03T08:13:48.079-08:00price gains are not yield. you should be more ca...price gains are not yield. you should be more careful in your cheerleading. and there are many who disagree with you on what swap spread narrowing mean. you clearly suffer from the post hoc ergo propter hoc logical fallacy. marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75179374194334628212015-11-03T07:57:33.812-08:002015-11-03T07:57:33.812-08:00steve: don't forget that it's the HY energ...steve: don't forget that it's the HY energy sector which is driving a lot of the spread widening in HY bonds. Still, I would agree that HY in general looks attractive. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67559966406612346652015-11-03T04:29:27.359-08:002015-11-03T04:29:27.359-08:00like your chart of HY vs swaps. judging by it and ...like your chart of HY vs swaps. judging by it and given that HY is yielding over 400 bps vs 10 year and that US economy looks steady, HY a bargain. stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34996632237809111682015-11-02T15:50:45.619-08:002015-11-02T15:50:45.619-08:00Excellent insights in swap spreads.
BTW, as Scot...Excellent insights in swap spreads. <br /><br />BTW, as Scott Grannis shows, this has been a weak recovery---but it has been record gangbusters in one regard: corporate profits.<br /><br />US corporations are reporting the best, highest corporate profits, relatively and absolutely, by huge margins in recent years.<br /><br />These are the good ol' days for corporate profits.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com