tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post3562117814990957252..comments2024-03-18T13:22:06.536-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: 5 million new private sector jobs and countingScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger61125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38106832294736948212012-05-10T07:17:26.110-07:002012-05-10T07:17:26.110-07:00Fantastic reply Scott ! I may have my "issues...Fantastic reply Scott ! I may have my "issues" with you now and again but I really appreciate your responsiveness and effort to communicate where you're coming from. Keep up the good work and I'll keep trying to be less of a trader !!Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44627347715223094482012-05-09T19:55:24.298-07:002012-05-09T19:55:24.298-07:00Rob: making a living selling forecasts is what I d...Rob: making a living selling forecasts is what I don't like. Besides, if I were a flawless forecaster I would be a zillionaire and I wouldn't need to go through all the work necessary to make intelligent posts. <br /><br />Plus, you don't necessarily need good forecasts to make money in the market. My London colleagues taught me the wisdom of "value over view." Sometimes, Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71940004895558975132012-05-09T16:54:51.019-07:002012-05-09T16:54:51.019-07:00Unless i am a masochist, and perhaps I am, i too m...Unless i am a masochist, and perhaps I am, i too must value Scott's bloggy musings or I wouldnt keep reading him ! But i feel u are a little disingenuous Scott when u now distance yourself from being a forecaster. At other times u like to show us how u made X predictions and how a nig percentage were on the money. U have a healthy ego and like to state your case in pretty forceful terms. Not Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68864411781623628702012-05-09T14:05:16.599-07:002012-05-09T14:05:16.599-07:00I am honored to be a member of The Scott Grannis F...I am honored to be a member of The Scott Grannis Fan Club.<br /><br />I too, am grateful for all of your kind labors...For me, it is quite a challenge to absorb all of your information...<br />Moreover, I am hear to learn and expand my rather feeble mind.<br /><br />Since we can not give any offerings, let me say, I love your work and in those immortal words of Nelson Mandela, "I love you.&4katzzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12362478491988290924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70492907372068885602012-05-09T13:43:45.880-07:002012-05-09T13:43:45.880-07:00Benjamin,
Of course we can disagree. Obviously yo...Benjamin,<br /><br />Of course we can disagree. Obviously you don't like GWB. That's fine, that's your right. I'm not that fond of his presidency either, even though I think he is a decent man. But you mix facts and blend different situations together in order to come up with your reasons for disliking him. <br /><br />For one the budget deficit decreased down to close to Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18190525712352815677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52913602596861621512012-05-09T13:26:49.982-07:002012-05-09T13:26:49.982-07:00Well said Scott. Just know that I for one appreci...Well said Scott. Just know that I for one appreciate the time you take to mantain your blog. And am glad you are not affected by "nabobs of negativity". <br /><br />As a retired MS broker I know full well the no win situation of forecasting and recommending. :)<br /><br />BobBobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18190525712352815677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9121854427992011302012-05-09T12:34:36.841-07:002012-05-09T12:34:36.841-07:00Having worked for many years as an economic consul...Having worked for many years as an economic consultant and forecaster, I learned long ago that being a forecaster is a miserable job. If your forecasts are correct and your clients make money by betting on them, then your clients are geniuses for having hired the right forecaster and having made the right decision. But if your forecasts are wrong and your clients lose money by betting on them, Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70166601572617163642012-05-09T11:01:25.668-07:002012-05-09T11:01:25.668-07:00Despite , Mr Grannis, legendary status within the ...Despite , Mr Grannis, legendary status within the ranks of the American Soothsayer Society, my reading hear, since I have joined, are that the preponderance of his prose are guard. (think Brinks)<br /><br />Whether free or pay per view, the majority will likely have but an average result...<br /><br />Even thou, Mr Grannis, is our shepherd, we as lames are allowed to stray...<br /><br />Rob, we 4katzzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12362478491988290924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-61377682159270307422012-05-09T09:40:57.384-07:002012-05-09T09:40:57.384-07:00Ive "swung at the ball" which is precise...Ive "swung at the ball" which is precisely why im unhappy with the "umpire" who is in fact not an umpire. Im just venting because i put too much credence on his enthusiastic words. Have done so before and come unstuck. As he told me then, dont trust anything too much if its "free" advice. And i might add, never trust an economist to help you trade.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24227769067234187022012-05-09T08:17:16.296-07:002012-05-09T08:17:16.296-07:00Rob, just step up to the plate and swing at the ba...Rob, just step up to the plate and swing at the ball...<br /><br />Arguing with the umpire will only get you to the bench...4katzzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12362478491988290924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86153248447308381212012-05-09T08:00:20.752-07:002012-05-09T08:00:20.752-07:00Bob-
Well, I guess we disagree.
Bush jr. like ...Bob-<br /><br />Well, I guess we disagree. <br /><br />Bush jr. like all GOP presidents since Eisenhower, ran huge deficits, even when the GOP controlled both houses of Congress, and the economy was growing. Bush (Sr. or Jr.) never even submitted a balanced budget. <br /><br />Bush committed us to not one but two lengthy and extremely expensive wars. <br /><br />The financial system collapsed Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40905070848522950142012-05-09T05:35:10.092-07:002012-05-09T05:35:10.092-07:00Where's Scott gone ?
I see that, once again, ...Where's Scott gone ?<br /><br />I see that, once again, he has been horribly over-optimistic: this time with the supposed reversion to any kind of a norm in the US Treasuries to equities correllation. You noted, Scott, how there appeared to be the beginning of a correction about six weeks or two months ago ... perhaps you'd care to note that following that blip the yield on Treasuries hasRobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50769387281058885672012-05-08T20:16:09.351-07:002012-05-08T20:16:09.351-07:00Benjamin, I enjoy your comments for the most part...Benjamin, I enjoy your comments for the most part, but I think you show your prejudice with your wongful accusations about G. Bush Jr. Don't get me wrong, not a big fan of his, but there was no "Great Bush J. Recession and Financial Collapse."<br /><br />The fact is that GDP grew, unemployment went down, the deficit shrank, and the Federal government enjoyed the largest tax Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18190525712352815677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33449884769590449112012-05-08T15:57:56.513-07:002012-05-08T15:57:56.513-07:00Somebody needs to be warned of this before people ...Somebody needs to be warned of this before people start going bonkers in July and August ...<br /><br />Both Ford and Chrysler, so far, have announced they will suspend some of the usual early July shutdowns for model-year changes due to increased demand and need to crank out more cars. This happened last year and 2010 also.<br /><br />What this means is ... initial jobless claims will take a Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84530482670471483682012-05-08T09:35:51.327-07:002012-05-08T09:35:51.327-07:00Market going down again.
The BoJ never relented,...Market going down again. <br /><br />The BoJ never relented, despite 20 years of failure.<br /><br />The Fed?Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34764728768911077772012-05-08T08:14:26.860-07:002012-05-08T08:14:26.860-07:00Dr McK: Worth noting is that California sends abou...Dr McK: Worth noting is that California sends about $50 billion a year more to DC than it gets back, every year. <br /><br />CA subsidizes rinky-dink rural states/ Ir is socialism, but the kind the GOP likes.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64916348987332063782012-05-07T21:44:11.078-07:002012-05-07T21:44:11.078-07:00Dr, McKibban, I am in agreement with your thoughts...Dr, McKibban, I am in agreement with your thoughts and that is why I never mention the word GOP and or Repubcos..<br /><br />Over the past two or three years, I have taken a very dim view of the GOP...<br /><br />We stopped our limited financial support of the national and state party..BTW, the state GOP is 15 months behind in rent!!<br /><br />The moderate Whig party is only marginally better 4katzzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12362478491988290924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89703333925724167542012-05-07T19:16:06.299-07:002012-05-07T19:16:06.299-07:00Benjamin, time will tell, but California will come...Benjamin, time will tell, but California will come before additional quantitative easing -- neither Republicans nor Democrats in Washington have any desire to tackle California's deficit issues -- California is essentially, on her own -- the US Fed will not allow quantiative easing to be used to "bailout states," either directly or indirectly...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24272391087378039832012-05-07T16:29:58.930-07:002012-05-07T16:29:58.930-07:00Dr. William:
Hard to say on the Fed. I hold out ...Dr. William:<br /><br />Hard to say on the Fed. I hold out hope they will rev their engines after a Romney victory. If they tighten after Romney wins, look for the right-wing to talk about revamping the Fed and putting it into the Treasury Department. <br /><br />It may be that QE will have to become a regular tool in monetary policy.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49971883483928281002012-05-07T13:48:02.585-07:002012-05-07T13:48:02.585-07:00Bejamin, the US Federal Reserve will not embark on...Bejamin, the US Federal Reserve will not embark on QE until austerity is tested in California -- that will take at least another year or so -- watch for double-digit percentage California spending cuts, or double-digit percentage California tax increases -- either course of action will test California's mettle fpr austerity...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68673099081372134712012-05-07T13:09:53.871-07:002012-05-07T13:09:53.871-07:00JBH:
You are right.
The Fed should go so sustain...JBH:<br /><br />You are right.<br /><br />The Fed should go so sustained QE, buying Treasuries with a vengeance. <br /><br />We have plenty of potential supply--indeed, supply lines are now global. There is no end of supply. (In this, we are very different from the 1970s).<br /><br />Capital, services, goods easily cross borders. Labor did, until we closed the border (a huge structural Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18209175644581191692012-05-07T10:32:41.371-07:002012-05-07T10:32:41.371-07:00Friday’s employment report was in fact on the side...Friday’s employment report was in fact on the side of poor. The key weakness was the decline in the labor force participation rate. As workers drop out there is less disposable income, that is, less aggregate demand. The payroll employment gain of 115K was poor as well. If labor force participation were not dropping so precipitously on trend, 115K new jobs each month would not be enough to keep Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91888563332375890282012-05-07T10:10:33.795-07:002012-05-07T10:10:33.795-07:00Hans-
I plan to vote for Romney. Why?
The Fed wi...Hans-<br /><br />I plan to vote for Romney. Why?<br /><br />The Fed will ease up, and maybe we will see marginal traction on the federal deficit (unless Romney gets us into another war).<br /><br />I did not expect Bush Jr. to get us into not one but two very long and expensive wars. He ridiculed "nation building" when first elected. Except for $4 trillion worth, I guess. Medicare Part Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66168277248269594862012-05-07T09:18:53.543-07:002012-05-07T09:18:53.543-07:00PS: I have been watching US presidents first hand ...PS: I have been watching US presidents first hand now for over 60 years -- none of the presidents over that period ever did much for me -- everything I've earned in my life has been despite the political system, not because of it -- by the way, I have lived half of my adult life overseas, and the situation is the same outside the US -- the world is a dangerous place, and we should all keep McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70998232675271561752012-05-07T09:14:23.551-07:002012-05-07T09:14:23.551-07:00Hi Hans, I wish what you say were true -- I have l...Hi Hans, I wish what you say were true -- I have little faith any either Democrats or Republicans -- honestly, neither does most of the nation at this point -- the party system is a legacy from the past, and the party system is not working today -- far from it -- I hope you are right, and that the Republicans bring some solution to the table after they return to power -- however, that's too McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.com