tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post3125272930878923581..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: The market's not very optimisticScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-26965306878895674042017-02-10T13:45:43.663-08:002017-02-10T13:45:43.663-08:00Bloomberg's calculation of trailing 12-mo EPS ...Bloomberg's calculation of trailing 12-mo EPS uses "diluted EPS from Continuing Operations." That is why their PE ratios are not the same as the "as reported" Price/earnings ratio from S&P 500. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-566471402275162472017-02-07T16:20:56.899-08:002017-02-07T16:20:56.899-08:00I believe Bloomberg's adjustments follow a the...I believe Bloomberg's adjustments follow a theoretically sound and consistent methodology over time. If that is indeed the case, then comparing today's Bloomberg PE to the historical range of Bloomberg PEs can be a useful and legitimate measure of valuation. But Bloomberg's PE ratios can not be compared to the PE ratio "as reported.'' That would be compare apples to Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29064295704216302852017-02-07T12:00:47.570-08:002017-02-07T12:00:47.570-08:00I forgot to mention:
If Bloomberg reduces the P/E...I forgot to mention:<br /><br />If Bloomberg reduces the P/E Ratio from 26x (S&P's number) to 21x by subtracting write-offs , why delete only bad news?<br /><br />In a sample size of 500 stocks some companies will have write-offs while others will have one-time gains.<br /><br />Any time someone adjusts data the result is no longer real data -- it is an estimate of what someone thinks theThe Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65168830106177943832017-02-07T11:50:41.700-08:002017-02-07T11:50:41.700-08:00Stocks are MORE overvalued if you use
the Price/...Stocks are MORE overvalued if you use <br /><br />the Price/Sales ratio, which I prefer, <br /><br />or Price/EBITDA ratio, <br /><br />or Market Capitalization as a percentage of GDP, which Warren Buffett prefers<br /><br />I used the 26X P/E Ratio based on S&Ps compilation of as-reported earnings to be conservative<br /><br />Valuation of the median stock has never been higher<br /><br />The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84561283290565649892017-02-06T20:45:21.293-08:002017-02-06T20:45:21.293-08:00The Cliff, S&Ps figures may or may not be more...The Cliff, S&Ps figures may or may not be more accurate but as Scott says, the important thing here was the relative value of the P/E so it is only important to see current value compared to its mean, top and bottoms.<br /><br />All P/E values are pure garbage if you want to go in to details about things. Ebit/EV would be better or to use FCF/EV.<br /><br />Scott, thanks for an interesting Johan Lindénhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07530784419183726575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14854490940567195592017-02-05T08:23:02.665-08:002017-02-05T08:23:02.665-08:00It's my understanding that Bloomberg uses a co...It's my understanding that Bloomberg uses a consistent methodology to adjust S&P 500 earnings over time. That being the case, it is not misleading at all to compare today's adjusted PE ratio to the history of the Bloomberg series, which is all I've done in my posts. Comparing Bloomberg's PE ratio to the "as reported" ratio would, however, be comparing apples to Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82686370617099365342017-02-04T14:50:34.131-08:002017-02-04T14:50:34.131-08:00Mr. Grannis
"I get my data from Bloomberg, t...Mr. Grannis<br /><br />"I get my data from Bloomberg, the most highly respected provider of financial data on the planet."<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />You are presenting some kind of adjusted S&P 500 P/E Ratio to report 21x<br /><br />The S&P 500 Index is owned by Standard & Poor's and they compile the as-reported earning data.<br /><br />Based on "as-reported"The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-43137280732300904002017-02-04T14:50:23.775-08:002017-02-04T14:50:23.775-08:00Mr. Grannis
"I get my data from Bloomberg, t...Mr. Grannis<br /><br />"I get my data from Bloomberg, the most highly respected provider of financial data on the planet."<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />You are presenting some kind of adjusted S&P 500 P/E Ratio to report 21x<br /><br />The S&P 500 Index is owned by Standard & Poor's and they compile the as-reported earning data.<br /><br />Based on "as-reported"The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28831842868536765692017-02-01T17:27:25.426-08:002017-02-01T17:27:25.426-08:00Tyler: I don't have price targets for my inves...Tyler: I don't have price targets for my investments. I am still long AAPL (going on almost 15 years) because I think the company has the ability to grow and innovate, and it is a leader in its field. Being able to repatriate earnings at a 10% tax rate would obviously add to the company's value, but I'm not sure how much of that is already priced in. In any event, I note that Apple&#Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76378881813168980142017-02-01T15:14:36.627-08:002017-02-01T15:14:36.627-08:00Hi Scott, thank you for another great post. Do you...<br />Hi Scott, thank you for another great post. Do you have a PT for AAPL? I'm excited that it's finally popping. Wondering if you have a sense for how much upside there is for a 1-time 10% tax on overseas cash? Thank you for any insight.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13505797460766969601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22673947308961116842017-02-01T15:13:28.804-08:002017-02-01T15:13:28.804-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13505797460766969601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12053732222024804312017-02-01T14:39:40.803-08:002017-02-01T14:39:40.803-08:00I often agree with Jim Paulsen. If economic growth...I often agree with Jim Paulsen. If economic growth ramps up as a result of successful Trump policies, it is certainly reasonable to expect further equity market gains.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37818098359386526432017-02-01T10:42:17.217-08:002017-02-01T10:42:17.217-08:00Love your insight. Thank you for all you do.
Reg...Love your insight. Thank you for all you do.<br /><br />Regarding Earnings Yield vs. 10-Year. I wonder what the 5 or 10 year rolling performance on S&P is relative to previous levels of "risk premium".<br /><br />Another interesting article I read, from Wells Strategist James Paulsen, considers the difference between Earnings Yield and 10-Year yield to be the "earnings yield Needelmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10232156942543409211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77173985911345740012017-02-01T05:37:29.490-08:002017-02-01T05:37:29.490-08:00Ray Dalio is no dope:
https://www.bloomberg.com/n...Ray Dalio is no dope:<br /><br />https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-31/dalio-says-trump-s-populism-may-overpower-pro-business-policies<br /><br />This is exactly how I feel and why i think the stock and bond markets see things differently re DT.stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71231133130044855212017-01-31T14:22:44.575-08:002017-01-31T14:22:44.575-08:00steve: I appreciate your comments. This is a subje...steve: I appreciate your comments. This is a subject about which reasonable men can and do disagree. It's one of the things that make markets exciting. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75349562446962030372017-01-31T09:24:25.508-08:002017-01-31T09:24:25.508-08:00Hmm, hate to argue this point with you Scott. You ...Hmm, hate to argue this point with you Scott. You are far more erudite than me in these areas. I do have 25 yrs of successful bond trading behind me though. In any event, I understand your point and it makes academic sense but from a TRADING perspective, the bond markets are far more phlegmatic than stocks. It takes an '08 like market to really create utter havoc.stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70344538377856947342017-01-31T08:34:05.622-08:002017-01-31T08:34:05.622-08:00endzeit14: I first posted an article about how QE ...endzeit14: I first posted an article about how QE did not depress bond yields back in Nov. '13:<br /><br />http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2013/11/quantitative-easing-myths.html<br /><br />I have made similar posts with updated charts since then. Here's one: http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2014/10/qe3-rip.html<br /><br /> Chances are you are referring to one or more of my posts on the Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84522563185530072232017-01-31T07:11:01.217-08:002017-01-31T07:11:01.217-08:00steve: I've wrestled with the issue you raise,...steve: I've wrestled with the issue you raise, being tempted at times over the years to think that the stock and bond markets have separate and distinct motives, etc. But in the end I've come to realize that their is only one capital market, and it includes stocks and bonds. Whatever affects one must affect the other. Whatever explains one must explain the other. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29717764101923783272017-01-31T05:43:50.464-08:002017-01-31T05:43:50.464-08:00Of course it's entirely possible that the stoc...Of course it's entirely possible that the stock market is more optimistic than the bond market. Two different types of buyers (traders). Indeed, I believe this to be so. DT is a real wildcard, love him or hate him.stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24653499483006560382017-01-31T03:47:00.967-08:002017-01-31T03:47:00.967-08:00Nice summary scott.Nice summary scott.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01261213308707778791noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24006024933874022842017-01-30T22:17:36.907-08:002017-01-30T22:17:36.907-08:00I get my data from Bloomberg, the most highly resp...I get my data from Bloomberg, the most highly respected provider of financial data on the planet. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2751272111272806442017-01-30T15:11:53.645-08:002017-01-30T15:11:53.645-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85646782282403182292017-01-30T15:08:07.600-08:002017-01-30T15:08:07.600-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36021780470660536472017-01-30T15:07:58.064-08:002017-01-30T15:07:58.064-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87434909528594023692017-01-30T15:07:40.552-08:002017-01-30T15:07:40.552-08:00The S&P 500 PE Ratio is 25.6x based on Standar...The S&P 500 PE Ratio is 25.6x based on Standard and Poor's as-reported earnings<br /><br />Your 21x is wrong.The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.com