tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post2816413890561719153..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Thinking about confidenceScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80258079695529416852010-03-31T10:25:55.513-07:002010-03-31T10:25:55.513-07:00Worry... when the S&P 500 divided by
NIPA corp...Worry... when the S&P 500 divided by<br />NIPA corporate profits after tax times year over year CPI inflation rate hits 5.....broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84580116534143244862010-03-31T08:32:00.310-07:002010-03-31T08:32:00.310-07:00Here's an even better indicator than consumer ...Here's an even better indicator than consumer sentiment:<br /><br />Beware the naked man selling underwear<br /><br />When the market is already up 50+% YoY and the sell side is telling everyone to buy -- just remember, as long as the music is playing YOU gotta get up and dance. I would dance, but I am busy finalizing my severance contract so that I get paid millions no matter which way the Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13335751305150509057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65345694330981402682010-03-31T02:51:01.697-07:002010-03-31T02:51:01.697-07:00According to Ned Davis Research....
the stock mark...According to Ned Davis Research....<br />the stock market has superior returns when Consumer Confidence is below 66....broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-21445795771741464762010-03-30T17:28:41.988-07:002010-03-30T17:28:41.988-07:00Consumer confidence?
I just wish I was more confi...Consumer confidence?<br /><br />I just wish I was more confident.<br /><br />There might be a positive break-out. Huge piles of investable capital are being generated globally all the time. This is what Anthony Downs called a "Niagara of Capital."<br /><br />It is piling up everywhere, and drives down yields. Indeed, the chronic low yields are part of what drives investors to take Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7883514286519488712010-03-30T17:17:01.899-07:002010-03-30T17:17:01.899-07:00I'm only paraphrasing the arguments I have bro...I'm only paraphrasing the arguments I have brought up in posts over the past year in support of a stronger stock market and a recovering economy.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37907951236155803672010-03-30T17:11:13.487-07:002010-03-30T17:11:13.487-07:00Scott- a lot of what you said is misleading and so...Scott- a lot of what you said is misleading and some is just wrong:<br /><br />"I see low PE ratios using NIPA profits, which over time are better behaved that GAAP profits"<br /><br />P/Es of 15+ are not low by any historical standard except compared to recent bubbles.<br /><br />Much of the "earnings" came from layoffs, which cannot continue.<br /><br />"Bank earnings Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13335751305150509057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51706786034290959192010-03-30T14:31:05.458-07:002010-03-30T14:31:05.458-07:00Gary: I see low PE ratios using NIPA profits, whic...Gary: I see low PE ratios using NIPA profits, which over time are better behaved that GAAP profits. There has been lots of balance sheet adjustment, lots of price adjustments. Bank earnings are probably better than reported, due to strong price appreciation of securities that were earlier classified as impaired. Savings rates are meaningless in my book, and rising savings are no reason to expect Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80958252101381847312010-03-30T14:05:24.459-07:002010-03-30T14:05:24.459-07:00The 1990s were very good to me. I was fortunate. I...The 1990s were very good to me. I was fortunate. I think BC was an overall good president although his morals were in the sewer. He could have done so much more but he basicly wasted his opportunities. GB had the misfortune to have his presidency shaped by the 9/11 tragedy. If you want to blame the bad times on something I think a better target would be the Wahabbi Arab Muslim radicals. Just as Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45087590107669229552010-03-30T14:03:39.305-07:002010-03-30T14:03:39.305-07:00I forgot to mention... rather substantial tax incr...I forgot to mention... rather substantial tax increases are coming in the next year. <br /><br />ObamaCare will raise the cost of hiring labor substantially, and probably cause shortages and price spikes in health costs<br /><br />The Bush tax cuts (whether or not you supported them at the time) are expiring at the end of this year. At the margin, that means a big tax increase<br /><br />Add Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13335751305150509057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75750541728857165652010-03-30T13:55:20.330-07:002010-03-30T13:55:20.330-07:00Scott -- in all those historical market buying opp...Scott -- in all those historical market buying opportunities:<br />- there was P/E compression, usually leaving P/E's in single digits<br />- stock prices were low on other accounting measures<br />- banks had fixed their balance sheets<br />- consumers had fixed their balance sheets<br />- consumer savings rates had reverted to historical "norms" of 8-9%<br />- the government wasn&Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13335751305150509057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23891259689725956772010-03-30T13:37:56.279-07:002010-03-30T13:37:56.279-07:00I guess the 1990s will the apex for many of us. Jo...I guess the 1990s will the apex for many of us. Jobs--you could get one. Profits--you could make them. The DJI tripled on Clinton watch. The federal budget ran surpluses. <br /><br />Sad to see the decline.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-35836237307832080932010-03-30T13:20:40.081-07:002010-03-30T13:20:40.081-07:00I'll never forget 'Stewart' the young ...I'll never forget 'Stewart' the young red headed daytrading hotshot prodding the tentative, middle aged man into a 100 share online stock purchase in a CNBC TV commercial back in the late 1990s. All the 'soccer moms' were talking about their $1000.00 morning stock flips in another. <br /><br />If you compare today's environment with that one you get a real night and day Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.com