tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post2640847354863582020..comments2024-03-18T13:22:06.536-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Auto sales remain strongScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2443412026854933812012-07-04T17:18:52.535-07:002012-07-04T17:18:52.535-07:00^
Yeah, speaking of payrolls and auto sales, the 1...^<br />Yeah, speaking of payrolls and auto sales, the 14.1 million SAAR number, according to my spreadsheet, (almost) guarantees a payroll number over 100K. I've got a spreadsheet with monthly auto sales and monthly payroll additions charted together, and for the past 2 years, the degree to which they go up and down in tandem from month to month is almost uncanny (you have to exclude Census Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48034397758672260492012-07-04T17:17:19.265-07:002012-07-04T17:17:19.265-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46993645268840611332012-07-04T13:03:56.849-07:002012-07-04T13:03:56.849-07:00Actually I use a 6 month moving average of the yea...Actually I use a 6 month moving average of the year over year Percentage change which yields a 11.7% positive....using the 6 month <br />moving average smooths out the erratic data without sacrificing its<br />predictability. Also the auto sales<br />to non farm payrolls employment is still significantly below its 35 year<br />average.broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17510948491117506660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84787772839487454022012-07-04T11:15:23.938-07:002012-07-04T11:15:23.938-07:00Comparing year-over-year numbers of car sales at t...Comparing year-over-year numbers of car sales at this point is a bit unfair since this time last year they took a tumble due to supply disruptions from the Japanese earthquake. By the fall we should have a better idea.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82589305203270154322012-07-04T01:59:51.610-07:002012-07-04T01:59:51.610-07:00The year over year change in car sales is positive...The year over year change in car sales is positive<br />The year over year change in housing<br />starts is positive very positive<br />The 52 week moving average of non seasonally adjusted jobless claims<br />is moving steadily south<br />The year over year change in crude<br />oil prices is negative<br />2 year swap spreads are stuck at a<br />benign 25 level<br /><br /> These are not broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.com