tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post2618278337121751609..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Brexit is not the end of the world as we know itScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-8118616433661652542016-06-27T06:32:27.631-07:002016-06-27T06:32:27.631-07:00PPS: Something is very wrong with the markets thes...PPS: Something is very wrong with the markets these days -- until I see real value, I'll probably keep stacking cash...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47826847056160969002016-06-27T06:30:14.994-07:002016-06-27T06:30:14.994-07:00PS: I never would have predicted even low bond yie...PS: I never would have predicted even low bond yields -- bond holders are still juicing...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28835788769385662172016-06-27T05:14:44.093-07:002016-06-27T05:14:44.093-07:00Keep an eye on 10-year Treasuries...
Chart: @Deut...Keep an eye on 10-year Treasuries...<br /><br />Chart: @DeutscheBank's forecast for the 10y treasury yield - https://t.co/sZCK3Yg9KwMcKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-58538805284918606442016-06-26T12:47:29.260-07:002016-06-26T12:47:29.260-07:00"In fact, I don't even think Trump WANTS ..."In fact, I don't even think Trump WANTS the job."<br /><br />I agree with that. Trump is like the dog who caught the car. <br /><br />I think his main goal right now is to set it up so that he can blame the "Crooked" Republican Elites for not supporting him if this turns out badly. And he still has to get through Cleveland - there will be many looking for a chance to bt1138https://www.blogger.com/profile/12843326237379459791noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66679129773949310732016-06-26T05:34:08.999-07:002016-06-26T05:34:08.999-07:00Certainly a shot across the bow of Hillary. No one...Certainly a shot across the bow of Hillary. No one can deny it. I still think she'll win easily. In fact, I don't even think Trump WANTS the job. He just keeps getting more and more bombastic! I just don't think there are enough pissed off white people to get him in. Haven't been wrong in forty years on a presidential election-but this could be a first!stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57799391759582965552016-06-24T18:56:21.718-07:002016-06-24T18:56:21.718-07:00PredictablyPredictablyScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44676736546921335122016-06-24T18:50:58.841-07:002016-06-24T18:50:58.841-07:00i demand more qei demand more qemarcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50407619253824291832016-06-24T18:41:52.297-07:002016-06-24T18:41:52.297-07:00Thoughtful and interesting post. As a Brit I parti...Thoughtful and interesting post. As a Brit I particularly enjoyed the comparison with Henry 8th and the present times.......TJ33Ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13245234066651341952noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29410863898270665282016-06-24T18:06:01.961-07:002016-06-24T18:06:01.961-07:00I agree with Johnny Bee Dawg in one regard: it has...I agree with Johnny Bee Dawg in one regard: it has become reflexive among globalists to dismiss all political adversaries as low-life buffoons.<br /><br />Are the globalists elite, fey snobs to whom money trumps patriotism, religion and even morals?Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53931509808091046892016-06-24T16:26:49.507-07:002016-06-24T16:26:49.507-07:00Yeah.
Ronald Reagan was just a stupid actor.
T...Yeah.<br /><br />Ronald Reagan was just a stupid actor. <br /><br />This was a very exciting day. Socialism is becoming irrelevant right before our eyes. Sorry, Hillary. Have you ever seen a more meaningless speech than Barack "explaining" Brexit to us today?? <br /><br />I'm almost giddy. Almost. All the right people are completely pissed off. Finally, the Good Guys win one!Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-27055393987019794272016-06-24T16:17:36.872-07:002016-06-24T16:17:36.872-07:00PS: I made no stock purchases today. In fact, I a...PS: I made no stock purchases today. In fact, I am not convinced I saw any true bargains out there today. What dropped most was banking and recreation stocks, which are sectors I've never truly understood. What I was watching for was sharp declines in transportation and utility stocks, but not yet. The Brexit stock market collapse has yet to inspire me. Add to that the rise in the dollarMcKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60732381390860361792016-06-24T16:10:34.657-07:002016-06-24T16:10:34.657-07:00Scott said, "The best thing the UK could do u...Scott said, "The best thing the UK could do upon exiting the EU and its treaty obligations would be to do nothing: simply open itself to all international trade. Who needs treaties, when the country that most benefits from trade is the one that restricts it the least?" I completely agree!McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75049026255755965032016-06-24T14:46:05.623-07:002016-06-24T14:46:05.623-07:00Since you and Paul Krugman are in agreement
-->...Since you and Paul Krugman are in agreement<br /><br />-->It must be true.bt1138https://www.blogger.com/profile/12843326237379459791noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70223375445903300602016-06-24T12:41:52.718-07:002016-06-24T12:41:52.718-07:00Trump contradicts his policy positions everyday, a...Trump contradicts his policy positions everyday, and he is demonstrating that he is not particularly bright, except as a carnival barker. Lawyer in NJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02920739130504981369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85332048267922423022016-06-24T12:39:30.215-07:002016-06-24T12:39:30.215-07:00Interesting indeed. FTSE is down over 13% from Apr...Interesting indeed. FTSE is down over 13% from April '15 however. But it is up 14% relative to the Euro Stoxx index since November '15. Today, UK stocks beat Euro Stoxx by 4%. This obviously suggests that the UK will benefit from leaving the UK, at least in a relative sense. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19108127866775070462016-06-24T12:16:19.879-07:002016-06-24T12:16:19.879-07:00UK stock market closed today UP 2.3% for the week....UK stock market closed today UP 2.3% for the week. Best week in 4 months.<br /><br />That didn't make the news.Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51628634777304199032016-06-24T11:48:08.081-07:002016-06-24T11:48:08.081-07:00Yeah.
Only "idiotic" "little peopl...Yeah.<br /><br />Only "idiotic" "little people" and "jingoistic lower middle class racists" are against being ruled by unelected bureaucrats, with no political mechanism for removing them from power. Everybody else LOVES it!! Especially in the frozen north.<br /><br />How dare they be so insolent and disrespectful. Just a bunch of rubes pouting. If only they Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12275696910063792142016-06-24T07:00:44.615-07:002016-06-24T07:00:44.615-07:00"Open itself to all international trade"..."Open itself to all international trade"<br /><br />Scott, sure that works just fine for imports, exports not so much. Moreover, a surprisingly large percentage of UK trade are services, and not goods. JP Morgan said it best: "we will do what we must to serve our clients", than could mean moving some of its 16,000 UK based employees elsewhere. The economic arguent for Frozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90081597663119366452016-06-24T06:43:38.972-07:002016-06-24T06:43:38.972-07:00I'll repeat here a comment I made last week:
...I'll repeat here a comment I made last week:<br /><br />"The best thing the UK could do upon exiting the EU and its treaty obligations would be to do nothing: simply open itself to all international trade. Who needs treaties, when the country that most benefits from trade is the one that restricts it the least? The best solution for a Brexit is the easiest."<br />Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-61909731442864764132016-06-24T06:41:50.098-07:002016-06-24T06:41:50.098-07:00Re: swap spreads. US swap spreads are almost uncha...Re: swap spreads. US swap spreads are almost unchanged and very low, down about 1 bps; 2-yr swaps now 12 bps vs 13 yesterday. Eurozone swap spreads are up 4 bps and not yet in what might be termed a danger zone. 2-yr Eurozone swaps are now 44; a month ago, before Brexit fears started to heat up, they were 36. So whatever problems a Brexit brings, they are not likely to sink the banking system or Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-43961459100440336062016-06-24T05:38:34.515-07:002016-06-24T05:38:34.515-07:00Amen!
Britain is finally giving Free Trade a chanc...Amen!<br />Britain is finally giving Free Trade a chance. The EU has not been very good for their wallets. Im gonna buy some English BEER this weekend in solidarity! Trump came out in support of the vote, Biden said he was disappointed in the British people. The Obama lectures didn't work.<br /><br />Markets at some point will remember that freedom and sovereignty are better ways to live Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41661112264784242892016-06-24T01:00:03.628-07:002016-06-24T01:00:03.628-07:00Love the REITs. If what Scott Grannis says is true...Love the REITs. If what Scott Grannis says is true, that central banks have to (relatively) ease, then good. <br /><br />I am sure the ECB is a bad idea and I suspect the EU is sclerotic too.<br /><br />Britain needs smaller government and to de-zone property. Trade laws are of less importance.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-61743716508113274372016-06-23T23:58:58.201-07:002016-06-23T23:58:58.201-07:00Thank you for being so generous in sharing your th...Thank you for being so generous in sharing your thoughts on the market, it's been a huge help for my continued education. <br /><br />Yesterday, I exited a 2ish year position in the vanguard admiral REIT, which returned 26.2%. I made the investment based on one of your crystal ball forecasts for the year. <br /><br />I'll be reinvesting the capital into either the S&P500 or back into Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13505797460766969601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80171149777851869502016-06-23T23:47:55.395-07:002016-06-23T23:47:55.395-07:00Well, it looks like the pound has already bounced ...Well, it looks like the pound has already bounced a little since my post. But if you want my guess, I would say that it's going to get ugly for awhile before things really have a chance to bounce convincingly. For how long? I have no idea, unfortunately. I'm going to be on the lookout for any genuine bargains that happen to come along. The pound is not cheap here, for example, despite theScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73956781415943031492016-06-23T23:37:30.319-07:002016-06-23T23:37:30.319-07:00Scott, any inklings on what's going to be the ...Scott, any inklings on what's going to be the best buy amidst the market over reaction? I'm guessing the S&P500 is going to be available at a nice discount, but it seems like the pound is going to take the worst beating of all. <br /><br />Any idea what this might do to REITs if anything in the short term? <br /><br />Thank you for another post!<br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13505797460766969601noreply@blogger.com