tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post2480420572411650718..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Higher bond yields go hand in hand with stronger growthScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53183707608471777282011-01-06T08:07:44.295-08:002011-01-06T08:07:44.295-08:00Kelvin: I would approach this from the other direc...Kelvin: I would approach this from the other direction: what would happen to the dollar if equities continue to rise? I think the dollar would strengthen if the economic news improves more than expected, and I would expect the equity market to move higher on that sort of news. The dollar is like the price of admission to the U.S. financial markets, when there are only a limited number of tickets Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71383807224763252192011-01-06T07:30:07.400-08:002011-01-06T07:30:07.400-08:00Kelvin,
There are lots of takes on this and other...Kelvin,<br /><br />There are lots of takes on this and others may want to weigh in but here's mine:<br /><br />I don't pay too much attention to the dollar, up or down, unless the move threatens to be large. Last summer was such a time. Many short term traders trading huge positions can move equity prices at the margins based on small currency moves but I have found it extremely difficultJohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77919635263007910292011-01-05T19:36:19.095-08:002011-01-05T19:36:19.095-08:00Could someone tell me what would happen to equitie...Could someone tell me what would happen to equities if the USD strengthens? Will equities sell off like commodities are starting to now?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02798277240041244209noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71766779560833473062011-01-05T16:55:18.348-08:002011-01-05T16:55:18.348-08:00According to the IBES Model stocks are -55% underv...According to the IBES Model stocks are -55% undervalued. That undervaluation is pushed to an artificial extreme by artificially low interest rates, but even if rates are normalized stocks would still be 32% undervalued. <br /><br />The extremely conservative Value Line Appreciation Model shows 7.7% compounded growth potential for the S&P 500 over the next five years. <br /><br />Earnings mmanagedaccountshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08188469703346980431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78089705917713735822011-01-05T16:04:34.994-08:002011-01-05T16:04:34.994-08:00John-
Hey, I could be wrong too, but if money star...John-<br />Hey, I could be wrong too, but if money starts leaving commodity ETFs, then commodities could snowball downhill. <br /><br />Right or Wrong, Mr. Mo Mentum is the biggest player on the field today. <br /><br />Lots of money seems to pile into favored classes, long after it makes any sense. Ergo, money will be pouring into equities for several years on the merits, and then a couple yearsBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-58478564018239279722011-01-05T14:17:40.716-08:002011-01-05T14:17:40.716-08:00Benj,
I could be wrong but I don't think the ...Benj,<br /><br />I could be wrong but I don't think the rally in commodities is done. Perhaps the easy money has been made here but I suspect they go higher still this year but maybe not as far or as quickly as last year. Natural gas is very interesting. Shale in particular. <br /><br />Pub,<br /><br />There are always problems. When all the problems are gone it will be past time to sell. Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77895227110894170812011-01-05T13:26:35.876-08:002011-01-05T13:26:35.876-08:00Another rally on Dow today. Commodities acting if...Another rally on Dow today. Commodities acting iffy.<br /><br />Possible scenario: Commodities have rallied due to investor interest. And investors may become more interested in equities and real estate. <br /><br />End of commodities rally?Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86648102601443393962011-01-05T12:40:03.877-08:002011-01-05T12:40:03.877-08:00Public Library-
The money flows have actually bee...Public Library-<br /><br />The money flows have actually been out of equities (trimtabs is source) until recently. <br /><br />Analysts are pumping and dumping, like they always do. Forget them.<br /><br />The money flows say to me that investors like stocks sgain. Mr. Mo Mentum is very powerful in today's world. Stocks go up, so people buy more. <br /><br />This rally has more legs than aBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37278442638832772852011-01-05T11:37:14.176-08:002011-01-05T11:37:14.176-08:00Benji,
Wall St analyst are all bullish. Read thei...Benji,<br /><br />Wall St analyst are all bullish. Read their trade rec's.<br /><br />Bullishness is at a feverish pitch despite the media. The media is last to get on board. When they do, bail out quick.<br /><br />We haven't resolved anything structural in the economy. We are still promoting spending over investment, debt issuance versus austerity, and wage growth is non existent.<br />Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44798310545109753502011-01-05T11:21:01.745-08:002011-01-05T11:21:01.745-08:00The top performing sector during the month of Dece...The top performing sector during the month of December was financials...they doubled the return in the S&P 500. The trend is continuing in this first week of 2011. <br /><br />This trend is still in its very early stage and will last for several years. It will not go in a straight line...markets never do. But I continue to believe the financials will outperform the S&P 500 in 2011 and Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90986686439580999302011-01-05T10:51:02.447-08:002011-01-05T10:51:02.447-08:00I think Wall Street will "catch up" to t...I think Wall Street will "catch up" to thought leader Scott Grannis in 2011, and start to believe in this recovery. <br /><br />I think we see 13,000 on the Dow in 2011. Read somewhere that money flow are into equity funds again. PE's are not too high, and profits could rise nicely. <br /><br />This could be a long, good ride for equity and property markets. Bring it on.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com