tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post2377713907519474368..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Export growth surges -- another V-signScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45845240198574278772009-12-22T02:24:02.228-08:002009-12-22T02:24:02.228-08:00"I'll never have a better year of forecas..."I'll never have a better year of forecasting."<br /><br />Is that a forecast?idea2gohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16944111299184811176noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28152855552954227722009-12-11T12:00:33.184-08:002009-12-11T12:00:33.184-08:00Donny: Already the prospect of Democratic losses i...Donny: Already the prospect of Democratic losses in next year's elections is a source of comfort for me and for the market. The hard-left agenda is losing steam, and that is good for the economy.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33620093426283989442009-12-10T20:38:46.666-08:002009-12-10T20:38:46.666-08:00Scott-
This is alot like what I said in the commen...Scott-<br />This is alot like what I said in the comments of your Obama Approval Ratings post - when certain things happen that are unexpected, the market can surge. Those things are: 1) the global economy shows sustainable growth and people start to believe it - this is akin to your Assumption 1, 2) the dollar firms, putting some certainty around energy adn other input prices, this is akin to Donny Baseballhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08040288585224426073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-131319175039527892009-12-10T10:59:20.952-08:002009-12-10T10:59:20.952-08:00Thank you, for your effort to make things clear to...Thank you, for your effort to make things clear to us.<br />FMFamily Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10304538166086313103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66138322265457526972009-12-10T10:36:04.958-08:002009-12-10T10:36:04.958-08:00I'm working on a longer explanation of this, b...I'm working on a longer explanation of this, but for the moment it occurs to me that what could really shake the markets up is for its major assumptions to be challenged.<br /><br />Assumption #1: the US economy is still very weak and at risk of sinking into another recession.<br /><br />Assumption #2: monetary policy is going to have to be extremely accommodative for a very long time if the Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31927161309984870612009-12-10T10:07:56.309-08:002009-12-10T10:07:56.309-08:00Scott,
on a bit different topic.
ECRI leading infl...Scott,<br />on a bit different topic.<br />ECRI leading inflation index is pointing to a rising CPI, exactly as you observed it in a past entry watching your indicator.<br />Rough guessing is, that is to early to ring the bells. But, what should happen with it to shake/invert risk trade. <br />Thanks again<br />FMFamily Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10304538166086313103noreply@blogger.com