tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post1944163048703170736..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: 15 important chartsScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31609047492159550542016-10-30T13:12:36.282-07:002016-10-30T13:12:36.282-07:00Hans - so you agree that tax cuts are not the only...Hans - so you agree that tax cuts are not the only catalyst for economic growth ? Thanks for making my point. I find the arguments by the right so boring - tax cuts are always the solution for every problem !amritsarihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03968805404670583901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90168823095391135872016-10-28T09:42:28.034-07:002016-10-28T09:42:28.034-07:00amritsari, Socshevikes, whom have been operating
U...amritsari, Socshevikes, whom have been operating<br />USA for nearly 5 decades are eliminating our freedoms<br />one by one but that has never been priority number one.<br /><br />Who has hurt America more Rothan or The Donald?? <br /><br />Yes, Brownback's tax reductions have not helfed Kansas<br />nor has Walker's in Wisconsin. No one on the right would<br />suggest that each and everyHanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52829292271447489822016-10-27T14:05:56.178-07:002016-10-27T14:05:56.178-07:00Correction: The book "Lukewarming" that ...Correction: The book "Lukewarming" that is the best book on the issue of Climate Change that I have run across, was written by Patrick Michaels, no Michael Cannon. Sorry for the confusion!Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-26308538054545910452016-10-25T23:40:13.497-07:002016-10-25T23:40:13.497-07:00Looks like the Kansas tax experiment isn't wor...Looks like the Kansas tax experiment isn't working out too great :)<br />Governor cancels economic update since it didn't look good.<br /><br />https://t.co/iAKy40uS7J<br /><br />Meanwhile in our greatly taxed and regulated state of california, we have a surplus. Who would have thunk ?<br /><br />Climate change is real. Deal with it. I'm quite qualified and familiar with the data. amritsarihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03968805404670583901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87231924976030603302016-10-24T10:51:34.115-07:002016-10-24T10:51:34.115-07:00Cliff: That is indeed a photo of my wife, and she ...Cliff: That is indeed a photo of my wife, and she thanks you for the compliment!Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71051374309602312242016-10-24T09:04:28.276-07:002016-10-24T09:04:28.276-07:00In response to your comment, Mr. Grannis:
My orig...In response to your comment, Mr. Grannis:<br /><br />My original post was to report that I thought you were too optimistic.<br /><br />While I associated that with your prior job, that speculation may not be true.<br /><br />Then I looked at the picture of the view from your condo, and your wife,<br />and decided unless that is not really your condo, and the woman is <br />actually a professionalThe Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-56024041377663476312016-10-24T08:55:59.604-07:002016-10-24T08:55:59.604-07:00Cliff Claven: no offense, and no quibble at all wi...Cliff Claven: no offense, and no quibble at all with reminding people how government stats can and do get revised significantly after the fact. That's something I have pointed out here many times over the years, and it's why I try to focus as much as possible on market-based, real time data.<br /><br />I am climate change skeptic as well, and one of the best books on the subject that I Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-19334936625214552292016-10-24T08:43:00.341-07:002016-10-24T08:43:00.341-07:00Below is a much older short study of economic data...Below is a much older short study of economic data revisions <br />(I have not checked to see if data were revised yet again, as is <br />very common with historical average temperature data!)<br /><br /><br />Final economic data revisions may be up to several years <br />after the original preliminary data were first released to the public. <br />.<br />Differences between preliminary and final The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31969307100751450602016-10-24T08:41:54.407-07:002016-10-24T08:41:54.407-07:00Here is a full column from my economics blog,
muc...Here is a full column from my economics blog, <br />much of which I left out of my first post here,<br />because I was still working on it:<br /><br /> <br />11 examples of bad news from data <br />released during October 2016:<br /><br /><br />(1) September orders for Class 8 trucks – the big rigs -- <br />plunged 27% from August, to 13,791 <br />-- it was the worst September since 2009<br /><The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68170921029894966842016-10-24T04:38:38.146-07:002016-10-24T04:38:38.146-07:00THE most troublesome trend I see today is the turn...THE most troublesome trend I see today is the turn AGAINST free trade. BOTH candidates agree! How any so called "conservative " be against what is so obviously beneficial policy is mind boggling UNLESS you assume it's all just politics and regaling to the ignorant.<br /><br />Excellent piece here about the importance of FREE TRADE!<br /><br />https://www.project-syndicate.org/stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-277831755724474262016-10-24T03:05:11.723-07:002016-10-24T03:05:11.723-07:00Center replaced the phone screen - tablet behalf F...Center replaced the phone screen - tablet behalf FASTCARE specialized glass touch screen iPhone 6/6 Plus see details here: https://fastcare.vn/thay-mat-kinh-man-hinh-iphone-6-6-plus-6s-6s-plus/. Service replacement glass touch screen iPhone 6s, 6s Plus cheapest genuine HCMC See here: https://fastcare.vn/thay-mat-kinh-man-hinh-iphone-6s/. Commitment replacement iPhone screen 100% genuine. On fastcare.vnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07739869261632221156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65657039880652487302016-10-23T23:15:28.415-07:002016-10-23T23:15:28.415-07:00I double Hans sentiment.
I may or may not agree ...I double Hans sentiment. <br /><br />I may or may not agree with Scott Grannis. So what? Grannis calls it as it he sees it, and tolerates other points of view. Hard to ask for more. <br /><br />The world would be a lot more civilized with a lot more Scott Grannis-types out there. Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82013295056978641752016-10-23T21:01:16.110-07:002016-10-23T21:01:16.110-07:00I am always surprised by leftist visiting
and com...I am always surprised by leftist visiting <br />and commenting on economic websites, since<br />few of their thoughts, comments, or theories<br />provide NO practical solutions facing a modern <br />economy. The only thing being espoused by them <br />are personal biases and collectivist ideology. <br /><br />Visit crackpot leftist economic websites such<br />as The Angry Bear and Mark Thoma'Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-32337735216856167212016-10-23T10:01:16.965-07:002016-10-23T10:01:16.965-07:00Cliff Claven: I started this blog in September 200...Cliff Claven: I started this blog in September 2008, and it was obvious then that things were going badly. I retired in late 2007, just before the recession started. But I can't claim to have predicted the recession. I initially called the recovery early (Nov/Dec '08), but in my year-end forecast (Dec '08) I thought the recovery was coming. In Jan or Feb '09 I predicted the Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-1744468318389379772016-10-23T09:44:55.455-07:002016-10-23T09:44:55.455-07:00amritsari: The opposition to Obama was not knee-je...amritsari: The opposition to Obama was not knee-jerk, it was principled opposition to policies designed to expand government's powers while also reducing individuals' freedom. As for climate change, I suggest you do some more research. A good place to start would be Michael Cannon's book, "Lukewarming."Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62719004949157933692016-10-22T14:38:44.180-07:002016-10-22T14:38:44.180-07:00"I finally have to drop my skepticism about t..."I finally have to drop my skepticism about this being a recession. Job losses reported today were the tipping point. Still, we're not any where near a depression. So far, this recession looks a lot like the last one as far as job losses, and the last one was the mildest on record."<br /><br />Those were your words on November 7, 2008.<br /><br />The recession had started in The Cliff Claven of Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541954550199246606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70965448956628135752016-10-22T04:29:58.001-07:002016-10-22T04:29:58.001-07:00Scott, re comment from amritsari, there is NO WAY ...Scott, re comment from amritsari, there is NO WAY that if dems sweep congress rates will not skyrocket. Prolific government spending relative to GDP will lead to more inflation (which is already picking up) and that leads to higher rates.<br />The average GOP voter is a complete dolt. The Left had their "Trump" candidate, Bernie Sanders but unlike the GOP, they knew he had no chance in stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6482656417373745812016-10-22T00:14:30.631-07:002016-10-22T00:14:30.631-07:00Hopefully the GOP looses the senate and house and ...Hopefully the GOP looses the senate and house and we can get back to the government actually getting things done. Their knee jerk opposition to Obama has completely stifled pro-active policy making. The threat of climate change will not be countered by self-interested corporations.amritsarihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03968805404670583901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41783342411311597982016-10-21T04:40:36.309-07:002016-10-21T04:40:36.309-07:00The Federal Reserve should become an investment
ho...The Federal Reserve should become an investment<br />house, since this is their only accomplishment<br />over the past decade (or two or more).<br /><br />They have driven the markets to all time highs<br />with only two corrections over the past seven<br />and a half years.<br /><br />Wall and Board is in love with them, all the while<br />they undermine virtually every pension scheme in<br />Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16131571215826237572016-10-20T20:32:44.882-07:002016-10-20T20:32:44.882-07:00Another great post by Scott Grannis.
Couple quibb...Another great post by Scott Grannis.<br /><br />Couple quibbles:<br /><br />"The chart above also shows that nearly every recession in the past 45 years has followed or coincided with a spike in real oil prices."--Scott Grannis.<br /><br />I think this is because the Fed, fearing inflation, tightens when oil prices rise. Ironically, the Fed is likely taking precisely the wrong action, Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90850067323344179222016-10-20T18:06:35.460-07:002016-10-20T18:06:35.460-07:00Scott, thanks a lot. Always waiting for your posts...Scott, thanks a lot. Always waiting for your posts. As a canadian almost 100% investing in US economy, your analysis is very helpful, especially with additional complexity of currency exchange. I am mostly investing in technology, engineering background.., and stocks are not cheap today, Therefore despite of trying to avoid risk aversion, I am on a sideline with a significant cache.It will be ebg investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14513889673146997967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72481749069036366952016-10-20T14:20:10.194-07:002016-10-20T14:20:10.194-07:00steve: Thanks. I question your assumption that mor...steve: Thanks. I question your assumption that more debt will cause rates to rise. Under Obama, the federal debt has exploded in every sense (nominally and relative to GDP), yet yields have been in a declining trend. Perhaps things will change in the future. But as I see it, bond yields are a function of inflation and growth expectations. Rates will rise more than expected (i.e., relative to Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18260366914823855542016-10-20T13:58:43.444-07:002016-10-20T13:58:43.444-07:00Great stuff Scott. Good dose of "reality"...Great stuff Scott. Good dose of "reality". I always trade on two condtions; what I see asset prices doing and what I "expect" them to do. Being a bond market trader, I SEE at least a short term reversal of the downtrend in yields and an expectation that this may continue. I expect this because Hillary WILL be elected AND there is at least a decent chance the GOP could lose thestevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.com