tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post185762038103384169..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: No shortage of money (8)Scott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62693555673294923142009-02-17T13:43:00.000-08:002009-02-17T13:43:00.000-08:00If the so-called saving rate increased meaningfull...If the so-called saving rate increased meaningfully, that would be reflected (because of the accounting treatment) in an improving trade balance, which would probably take the form of more exports and a slowing or decline in imports.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40387978153072508122009-02-17T09:04:00.000-08:002009-02-17T09:04:00.000-08:00The market has miscalculated this disasters every ...The market has miscalculated this disasters every step of the way. We will blow through the lows. <BR/><BR/>Our government has already thrown everything it can at the economy but to no avail. Numbers are meaningless at this point because nobody beleives it will work or that the government knows what it is doing. That is the reality that is shaping our future.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29874642509246498062009-02-16T22:16:00.000-08:002009-02-16T22:16:00.000-08:00regardless of the exacting nature of the savings r...regardless of the exacting nature of the savings rate, it is fundamentally going up.<BR/><BR/>even if people save a dollar and it is available to be lent out by a bank to other individuals or companies, the opportunity set for an attractive ROI has declined....<BR/><BR/>unless we finally get trade policy right and expand our export business.<BR/><BR/>im skeptical that productivity in the next prophetshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16688051502761732148noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6549875318861455062009-02-16T18:30:00.000-08:002009-02-16T18:30:00.000-08:00My thesis is that the equity market has priced in ...My thesis is that the equity market has priced in all the bad news already. I don't believe the economy will get as bad as the market expects. In earlier posts I note how the pricing today implies a future economy that is much worse than the Depression. I don't see that. So as long as the economy doesn't slip into a mega-depression, then stocks should eventually rise.<BR/><BR/>I think the lows ofScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66737343550119176432009-02-16T18:15:00.000-08:002009-02-16T18:15:00.000-08:00Scott, thanks for your great blog. I'm curious to ...Scott, thanks for your great blog. I'm curious to know your thoughts on the SP500. It looks like it may be about to test new lows. How do you think it will play out given your conviction that there is already a chink of light at the end of the tunnel? Thanks again. - RobRobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9984559768253365622009-02-16T15:38:00.000-08:002009-02-16T15:38:00.000-08:00I have a problem with the savings rate. To begin w...I have a problem with the savings rate. To begin with, it is not measured correctly, since it counts realized capital gains and losses but doesn't count unrealized gains and losses. Second, there is no reason why a rise in the savings rate here should mean slower growth. Every dollar that one person saves is always and necessarily spent by another person; there is no way to save money (aside fromScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17702376428251719122009-02-16T15:17:00.000-08:002009-02-16T15:17:00.000-08:00some of the problem is confidence, some of it is t...some of the problem is confidence, some of it is the structural issues in the banking sector.<BR/><BR/>but another part is that the economics of capital invested in the US economy are fundamentally changing. stagnating US wages and a US consumer that is retrenching into savings mode, presents a slightly different opportunity set for investment.<BR/><BR/>'back to the future' is not a prescriptionprophetshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16688051502761732148noreply@blogger.com