tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post1823552520645763954..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Where's the angst?Scott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15305927459540515842010-05-18T21:01:16.708-07:002010-05-18T21:01:16.708-07:00狂猪: I just can't share your view that fiscal p...狂猪: I just can't share your view that fiscal policy can be stimulative. I'm not a Keynesian, and I don't find any logic in the Keynesian belief that government spending can be stimulative. In my experience, I have never seen a government official spend money more efficiently and wisely than a person spends his own money. The continued belief in the efficacy of government spending as aScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-61029082652171234402010-05-18T19:06:47.965-07:002010-05-18T19:06:47.965-07:00Hi Scott,
My view on government stimulus spendin...Hi Scott,<br /><br /><br />My view on government stimulus spending is part of a larger view I have on counter cyclical positioning.<br /><br />I think fiscal policy, monetary policy, and regulatory policy should all be counter cyclical. During the normal times, all three of these should be tightened. This way, during the bad times there is dry powder such that all three can be and should be 狂猪https://www.blogger.com/profile/16599529315620633684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66804118188489198202010-05-17T19:27:44.176-07:002010-05-17T19:27:44.176-07:00狂猪: I think there is widespread confusion over the...狂猪: I think there is widespread confusion over the economic impact of a return to fiscal austerity. Most people seem to believe that fiscal "stimulus" policies, which involve spending borrowed money, can give the economy a boost. Therefore they worry that reversing these policies (i.e., cutting spending) will be bad for the economy.<br /><br />My position is different: I don't Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69063332531154201282010-05-17T16:36:27.509-07:002010-05-17T16:36:27.509-07:00Hi,
I am very optimistic on Europe and on Spain ...Hi,<br /><br /><br />I am very optimistic on Europe and on Spain in particular. Here are my reasoning. What do you think?<br /><br />To start with the main problem of Greece is fear of contagion. The Greek economy itself is too small to matter. The main risk are from the foreign banks holding Greek government bonds. Will Greece default? With the recent aid packages, sovereign default does 狂猪https://www.blogger.com/profile/16599529315620633684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15154780499989524592010-05-17T15:26:33.832-07:002010-05-17T15:26:33.832-07:00Scott-
Can't wait to read the book.
I am bu...Scott-<br /><br />Can't wait to read the book. <br /><br />I am building up a pile for some long airflights to Thailand. <br /><br />Ironically, a friend also recommended I read a book entitled "Panic" -- the book by Michael Lewis, on roughly the same topic (Lewis is famed for writing "Liar's Poker"). Panic is everywhere.<br /><br />I have an unformed, amateur idea Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24628605065770317392010-05-17T13:19:41.319-07:002010-05-17T13:19:41.319-07:00Benjamin: the book "Panic" that I mentio...Benjamin: the book "Panic" that I mentioned the other day helps to explain and understand the extreme volatility in equity prices in recent years. One of the book's key insights is that the market has come to accept the theory that markets are efficient. In fact, markets are not efficient, and thus there can be wild swings in valuations that may or may not have anything to do with Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6391106640998939132010-05-17T12:44:07.691-07:002010-05-17T12:44:07.691-07:00Public,
FWIW, Stratfor is predicting that Germany...Public,<br /><br />FWIW, Stratfor is predicting that Germany will remake the Eurozone largely on their terms. For now, that appears to be their plan for better or worse. A lot can still go wrong...Germany's public may change their government, there may be significant resistance among other euromembers to Germany's 'rules', and many others. But for now, the situation has been Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11394844263648934042010-05-17T12:34:08.644-07:002010-05-17T12:34:08.644-07:00Scott,
I have read that the bid/ask spread on the...Scott,<br /><br />I have read that the bid/ask spread on the bulk sale of residential real estate assets is converging rapidly in Californis. This is leading to price discovery for large portions of banks' balance sheets. I understand the market is still not quite liquid but that competition too buy these blocks is increasing. <br /><br />If you run across more details of this I would Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9967662472276277662010-05-17T12:09:32.717-07:002010-05-17T12:09:32.717-07:00You can only contaminate so many sovereign balance...You can only contaminate so many sovereign balance sheets before the game of hot potato ends.<br /><br />If Germany was smart they would bail from the EU sooner rather than later. The structure was designed for the great moderation, not the sovereign default era.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16599340119055427552010-05-17T11:41:59.599-07:002010-05-17T11:41:59.599-07:00If I read this chart correctly, the DAX index, mea...If I read this chart correctly, the DAX index, measured in dollars, more than quadrupled from 2003 to 2008, then was roughly cut in half, before recovering of late.<br /><br />Holy Moly!<br /><br />One might forgive German investors for feeling that perhaps bonds or property make sense. <br /><br />Retirement planning, anyone?Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com