tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post1708374916331329057..comments2024-03-19T02:45:37.685-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: U.S. exports are rebounding (3)Scott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55143389584908872442009-06-16T11:14:05.789-07:002009-06-16T11:14:05.789-07:00Herbert: the velocity calculation is relatively si...Herbert: the velocity calculation is relatively simple: GDP divided by M2. Nominal GDP grew 1.2% in 2008, while M2 grew 9.6%, so velocity fell--down about 7.6% for the year. The drop in velocity was most pronounced in the fourth quarter, when it fell 5.6%. <br /><br />Interestingly, M2 velocity has now returned to the same level as it averaged from 1960-1985.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86941127886006045242009-06-16T11:00:57.381-07:002009-06-16T11:00:57.381-07:00My Costco-observation-index says that sales are pi...My Costco-observation-index says that sales are picking up.<br /><br />The "COI" is our informal observation of shopping cart contents during trips to Costco. <br /><br />During the winter, shopping carts were mainly stocked with essentials -- food -- and barren of things like tools, TVs, cameras, etc.<br /><br />We've noticed more non-essentials in the carts during the last six Cabodoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08299113185481067179noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36485318303069478812009-06-16T11:00:40.922-07:002009-06-16T11:00:40.922-07:00not sure how you see velocity of money plummeting ...not sure how you see velocity of money plummeting last year. <br />Despite a sharp drop in GDP, if you take money supply and divide it into GDP I think it is less than 2X but not muchUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07932659498471738656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7969415485457936832009-06-16T10:09:24.452-07:002009-06-16T10:09:24.452-07:00The CA housing market is definitely set for anothe...The CA housing market is definitely set for another down leg. There are several reasons for this.<br /><br />Firstly, housing cycles generally take years to work through and this last episode was of astronomical proportions. <br /><br />Second, the current housing activity is reminiscent of people trading on the belief the most recent past (ridiculously rising house prices) represents their Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89552341399347138032009-06-16T09:58:49.397-07:002009-06-16T09:58:49.397-07:00Public: I've been reading CalculatedRisk for s...Public: I've been reading CalculatedRisk for some time now, and it appears to me that it has a definite bearish bias. Year over year comparisons are almost meaningless in this environment. You've got to look at change on the margin, which has been almost uniformly good.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-35670073383987471402009-06-16T09:06:01.605-07:002009-06-16T09:06:01.605-07:00Public,
It is not very difficult to see that the ...Public,<br /><br />It is not very difficult to see that the economy is sucking wind and conditions are getting much worse.<br /><br />Just look at BestBuy's same store sales data being DOWN 6%......and that is AFTER the closing of its big box competitor Circuit City and gaining market share<br /><br />Could you imagine how bad SSS data would be if Circuit was still open?<br /><br />alstryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16025398896639165994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23616004202466074892009-06-16T08:49:37.750-07:002009-06-16T08:49:37.750-07:00However, it is interesting to see two wildly diffe...However, it is interesting to see two wildly different perceptions of the same data coming from Calculated Risk.<br /><br />"There has been some recovery in exports over the last few months (the year-over-year comparison was off 30% from December through February). But this is the 3nd worst YoY comparison for imports - only February and April were worse. So imports from Asia appear Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48308344860009981222009-06-16T07:41:48.682-07:002009-06-16T07:41:48.682-07:00Well it is not manufacturing stuff for sure. We mo...Well it is not manufacturing stuff for sure. We most be exporting all those unsold houses:<br /><br />Industrial production decreased 1.1 percent in May after having fallen a downward-revised 0.7 percent in April. The average decrease in industrial production during the first three months of the year was 1.6 percent. Manufacturing output moved down 1.0 percent in May with broad-based declines Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08525712221415987341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-763170496511999302009-06-15T21:48:03.640-07:002009-06-15T21:48:03.640-07:00It helps clarify that there is an annual seasonal ...It helps clarify that there is an annual seasonal pattern to Port Traffic.....imports more visible than exports....but a traffic pattern nontheless.<br /><br />As I implied in my original comment, this years outbound traffic in May was not down as much as the past few months....but still down on a y/y basis.<br /><br />Despite nuances of this debate....I have never understood the economic alstryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16025398896639165994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64777713882674856742009-06-15T21:32:05.395-07:002009-06-15T21:32:05.395-07:00And I fail to see how the chart you link to paints...And I fail to see how the chart you link to paints a different picture than the one I'm describing.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44817299836918665192009-06-15T21:08:33.386-07:002009-06-15T21:08:33.386-07:00Scott,
Your chart utilizes a two year time increm...Scott,<br /><br />Your chart utilizes a two year time increment which tends to distort y/y changes....<br /><br />Here is a link to CalculatedRisk's one year chart......<br /><br />http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/Sja6k-QE_ZI/AAAAAAAAFh4/hXQ9bsqJdMU/s1600-h/LAportsMay2009.jpg<br /><br />I think you will find it paints a very different perspective.<br /><br />As far a being a "perma alstryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16025398896639165994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33261220513873147102009-06-15T20:23:14.285-07:002009-06-15T20:23:14.285-07:00alstry: A quick glance at the chart will show you ...alstry: A quick glance at the chart will show you that seasonal factors have very little to do with significant variations in container shipments. Also, doing a year over year comparison will show the there has been a major inflection point towards improvement. I think the only conclusion that can possibly be drawn is that exports are growing at a significant rate, and recouping last year's Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81737258414357362002009-06-15T20:17:35.247-07:002009-06-15T20:17:35.247-07:00Scott,
Outbound shipments generally rise this tim...Scott,<br /><br />Outbound shipments generally rise this time of the year....HOWEVER, on a y/y basis outbound traffic was down 15.3%.<br /><br />As happens practically EVERY year, you wanna bet outbound shipments start falling back to new lower lows in August of this year.<br /><br />Granted outbound is not down as much as it was in the past few months....but down is down and exports this year alstryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16025398896639165994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23895533771309152132009-06-15T15:53:19.518-07:002009-06-15T15:53:19.518-07:00> Have you noticed that the dollar is up 3.4% i...> Have you noticed that the dollar is up 3.4% in the last two weeks?<br /><br />Yeah, and most of that is in the last 3 days.<br /><br />I'm not betting on the demise of the dollar anytime soon (longer term, sure), but I do expect treasuries to continue falling. I'm short 30 year (via ETFs), which has been painful the last few days.<br /><br />My general opinion is that as the economy Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79818229240069671652009-06-15T15:37:43.266-07:002009-06-15T15:37:43.266-07:00Have you noticed that the dollar is up 3.4% in the...Have you noticed that the dollar is up 3.4% in the last two weeks? It's too soon to predict the demise of the dollar, even though the Fed's actions seem almost certain to result in a weaker dollar long-term.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-1923749223232263872009-06-15T15:33:46.626-07:002009-06-15T15:33:46.626-07:00I hope you're right. My portfolio took a compl...I hope you're right. My portfolio took a complete drubbing today.<br /><br />My sense is that today's pain was due mostly to comments out of Russia. Of course they're trying to backpedal trash talking the dollar. They only hurt themselves when they do that. Nevertheless, the diversification away from USD continues unabated.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com