tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post1629590926103988626..comments2024-03-18T13:22:06.536-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Making some progress in EuropeScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86470213132493151702011-10-28T08:43:46.100-07:002011-10-28T08:43:46.100-07:00William: Japan is the proof that yields can remain...William: Japan is the proof that yields can remain very low even as debt/GDP ratios soar. One key difference between US/Japan and Greece explains it: the US and Japan have their own currency, but Greece does not. Greece therefore has default risk which the US and Japan do not.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76274844482402958312011-10-28T02:29:40.672-07:002011-10-28T02:29:40.672-07:00That's an interesting take, Scott, and counter...That's an interesting take, Scott, and counter-intuitive for me. I would have thought that the bond vigilantes would treat the US debt similarly to Italian debt because we are accumulating additional debt at a rate of $1.3 Trillion each year. <br /><br />Wouldn't supply overwhelm demand at some point? Plus there is the inflation factor making real bond returns negative.Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60108426182224362062011-10-27T18:40:16.785-07:002011-10-27T18:40:16.785-07:00William: while I agree that the bond vigilantes ar...William: while I agree that the bond vigilantes are in the ascendancy, I disagree that a lack of budget discipline would be bad for bonds. If the special committee fails to enforce some meaningful fiscal discipline (primarily on the spending side), then I think the bond market will once again decide that U.S. growth is going to be miserable, smothered by too much spending, and that will lead to Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60044304845911012272011-10-27T18:31:46.724-07:002011-10-27T18:31:46.724-07:00Thank you, John. I value your opinion. I hope that...Thank you, <b>John</b>. I value your opinion. I hope that we are correct.Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70313749459045459602011-10-27T13:44:38.326-07:002011-10-27T13:44:38.326-07:00QWE--That is called Market Monetarism, or nominal ...QWE--That is called Market Monetarism, or nominal GDP targeting.<br /><br />If the Fed chooses this path, we could have a sustained rally for years and years. <br /><br />Real estate and equities will blow through the roof.<br /><br />But the Fed may also chose the Japan route. In which case you want out of equities and property and even bonds, and into stocks that pay increasing dividends or Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-61919195741189284192011-10-27T13:30:36.004-07:002011-10-27T13:30:36.004-07:00Part of rally is due to a GS research on a FED GDP...Part of rally is due to a GS research on a FED GDP targeted policy proposal as a new mandate, they estimate QE3 of 1 trn USD to close the output gap.<br />So story is simple, buy commodities/mining sell save heaven.<br /><br />http://ineteconomics.org/blog/money-view/NGDP-target-practiceqwehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11825003412704000546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-32644365461914483772011-10-27T11:54:03.888-07:002011-10-27T11:54:03.888-07:00William...I predict it will be a good one.William...I predict it will be a good one.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11837925691576264712011-10-27T11:28:38.175-07:002011-10-27T11:28:38.175-07:00As predicted by Scott Grannis (and me ;~) ), the 1...As predicted by Scott Grannis (and me ;~) ), the 10 years US Treasury Bond is taking a shellacking once the European "panic" factor has lessened. From an all time low yield of about 1.7% a month ago, the yield has risen to 2.39%. <br /><br />Personally, I think that the bond vigilantes will soon be free to pummel US Treasuries - especially if the special committee doesn't come up Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22476643673755976312011-10-27T10:40:29.803-07:002011-10-27T10:40:29.803-07:00Huzzah, huzzah: Dow over 12k.Huzzah, huzzah: Dow over 12k.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-56878728148468204822011-10-27T10:09:45.758-07:002011-10-27T10:09:45.758-07:00I wonder if there is a positive out there. After A...I wonder if there is a positive out there. After Argentina defaulted, it enjoyed excellent GDP grwoth.<br /><br />Greece is hampered by its attachment to the euro (it cannot get a lower exchange rate)----nevertheless, could we see growth in Greece after a partial default?Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com