tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post1553828418537379145..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: T-TrillionsScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17797990094310988462016-12-23T11:30:23.622-08:002016-12-23T11:30:23.622-08:00Re: federal deficit and the Fed. I note that curre...Re: federal deficit and the Fed. I note that currently the Fed holds about 18% of outstanding Treasury debt, which is, amazingly, the same amount it held at the end of 2004. It less than it held in 2002 (then 20%).<br /><br />I see no problem at all with federal debt continuing to grow, as long as the deficit is 2-3% or so of GDP. It is a good thing to have a viable, deep, and liquid Treasury Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51234442193884668922016-12-23T06:45:41.154-08:002016-12-23T06:45:41.154-08:00Brett Stephens article did a nice job providing pe...Brett Stephens article did a nice job providing perspective on the competing arguments for stagnation (demographics or regulations?). Maybe more useful was perspective on why coastal liberals don't appreciate tangible business issues. Segue - a good argument that the electoral college has a good purpose. <br /><br />http://www.wsj.com/articles/doomed-to-stagnate-1482192461?tesla=y<br /><br randyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368254229927808998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64351789761129373972016-12-23T04:04:14.092-08:002016-12-23T04:04:14.092-08:00Im amazed people are surprised that the stock mark...Im amazed people are surprised that the stock market has surged on a Trump election.<br />Markets loved Trump before the election. There were lots of tells.<br /><br />Why in the world would markets have liked 4 more years of Hillary lawlessness & risk aversion that would have been an extension of the Obama lawlessness and risk aversion we already had??<br /><br />Markets like when We The Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28428249111741187362016-12-23T02:56:35.323-08:002016-12-23T02:56:35.323-08:00You know, this guy Trump is beginning to grow on m...You know, this guy Trump is beginning to grow on me. I sure hopes this is not just showtime. <br /><br />"President-elect Donald Trump elevated his criticism of Lockheed Martin's F-35 fighter today, saying he's asked Boeing to explore pricing for an alternative to the costly fighter jet.<br /><br />"Based on the tremendous cost and cost overruns of the Lockheed Martin F-35, I Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22856318849955482382016-12-22T20:29:56.085-08:002016-12-22T20:29:56.085-08:00Scott:
Probably, although in another recession, w...Scott:<br /><br />Probably, although in another recession, we might see QE or possibly even helicopter drops (under various guises). <br /><br />Aside: In the past, you have noted that at least some segments of global financial markets actually want outstanding US government bond volume to grow. It is considered a risk-free asset that serves as collateral, and there is shortage of risk-free Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47892861271345923482016-12-22T17:35:22.223-08:002016-12-22T17:35:22.223-08:00Benjamin: excess reserves are now only about $2 tr...Benjamin: excess reserves are now only about $2 trillion, less than 15% of federal debt. It is highly unlikely that the Fed will buy more Treasuries. But is highly likely that the federal debt will continue to grow. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-90478446010757086302016-12-22T17:29:15.100-08:002016-12-22T17:29:15.100-08:00Great post.
Call me an heretic, but I wonder what...Great post.<br /><br />Call me an heretic, but I wonder what is the meaning of a "government deficit" anymore, when a central bank can simply buy back debt, pay it off, without inflationary consequence.<br /><br />See Japan. By 2020 the government will owe all the debt to itself.<br /><br />And Europe and the United States, when they are conducting central bank quantitative easing? <br Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20851544799263711152016-12-22T16:07:48.546-08:002016-12-22T16:07:48.546-08:00" . . . a booming economy with 4-5% real grow..." . . . a booming economy with 4-5% real growth rates . . ."<br /><br />There is no way on God's green earth we are going to get steady 4-5% real growth - not again for decades, and perhaps even centuries. Maybe a stray quarter here or there. I don't care who is president, or what policies are enacted, it just isn't going to happen. The population isn't growing remotely John Ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10670015527620779417noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89219390447635238472016-12-22T07:01:26.987-08:002016-12-22T07:01:26.987-08:00I'm not optimistic about private capital fixin...I'm not optimistic about private capital fixing infrastructure. Why haven't we seen private capital upgrade LaGuardia or JFK airports? If it can't happen in NY, where can it?<br /><br />Ryan talks about public private partnerships. I'm concerned that means private profits subsidized by public funding with the taxpayers bearing all of the risk. Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41298871715880651922016-12-22T05:02:12.983-08:002016-12-22T05:02:12.983-08:00This piece goes right to the heart of what I have ...This piece goes right to the heart of what I have been preaching for years: A) you CANNOT time the market and B) pundits know nothing more about where markets are going than anyone else. In fact, I would argue they know LESS because they're not smart enough to realize they DON"T KNOW!stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13524981782281056102016-12-21T17:34:37.826-08:002016-12-21T17:34:37.826-08:00If the GOP goes hog-wild with deficit-financed spe...If the GOP goes hog-wild with deficit-financed spending I would be very surprised and conservatives everywhere would be enraged. The infrastructure spending Trump is talking about would most likely be privately financed. The tax cuts for businesses and individuals would be paired with caps on deductions for the most part, thus aiming to be deficit neutral. It's absolutely possible to cut Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62639149421019478512016-12-21T17:09:57.134-08:002016-12-21T17:09:57.134-08:00Personally, I am looking forward to the GOP sudden...Personally, I am looking forward to the GOP suddenly deciding that debt and deficits are perfectly OK, as they start there usual routine of spending more and taxing less. <br /><br />In fact, as long as a Republican is President, deficits are totally acceptable. They provide the best possible evidence that government is awful.bt1138https://www.blogger.com/profile/12843326237379459791noreply@blogger.com