tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post1392998182775351885..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Charting the recoveryScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2074495542078966442012-02-22T07:15:24.196-08:002012-02-22T07:15:24.196-08:00Corporate profits as percentage of GDP seems like ...Corporate profits as percentage of GDP seems like a trailing indicator. Is this what others have been using as to the health of corporations?Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06103198767934195892noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72284008078992441932012-02-22T05:30:09.561-08:002012-02-22T05:30:09.561-08:00I am glad that our fearless leader has denoted a w...I am glad that our fearless leader has denoted a weak recovery...Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57900923345411643402012-02-22T04:49:02.915-08:002012-02-22T04:49:02.915-08:00one good thing about any recovery is it will leave...one good thing about any recovery is it will leave scott with nothing to saymarcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-27564738549266969032012-02-21T14:35:12.819-08:002012-02-21T14:35:12.819-08:00Scott I agree but this pertains more to the last 3...Scott I agree but this pertains more to the last 30 years, not just the past 3 years.<br /><br />Your chart starts about when Nixon cut the gold standard and the global market started going debt happy.<br /><br />The entire global infrastructure is built on the assumption that debts do not matter. We are finally running into the wall head-on.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-4643210884046928132012-02-21T14:09:08.868-08:002012-02-21T14:09:08.868-08:00Gallup is estimating that unemployment will rise t...Gallup is estimating that unemployment will rise to 9% for February. I really do wonder if it's true that many are dropping out of the labor force by claiming disability for "mental issues" so that the "improvement" in employment is really a mirage. I just don't see much evidence of recovery based on the small number of new corporate transactions in our legal Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69117146993136258162012-02-21T13:51:15.151-08:002012-02-21T13:51:15.151-08:00It would be interesting to see a chart showing cor...It would be interesting to see a chart showing corporate profits as a percent of normalized GDP.<br /><br />Two things going on here: 1) profits are increasingly being generated by U.S. companies outside the U.S. and 2) subpar domestic G.D.P. growth since late 2006.sgt.red.blue.redhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08132657702786638326noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-666084401530937382012-02-21T13:36:24.855-08:002012-02-21T13:36:24.855-08:00Public: I would argue just the opposite: we need o...Public: I would argue just the opposite: we need one-half or less of the "stimulus" that we have had to date in order to see a robust recovery. I think the economy has improved in spite of fiscal and monetary stimulus, not because of it.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-4556820917240208852012-02-21T13:26:03.897-08:002012-02-21T13:26:03.897-08:00Read a good article a few weeks ago about 'eco...Read a good article a few weeks ago about 'economic potential'. The short of it is; in order to get back to 'potential' we would need double, maybe triple-up on the kind of policies (fiscal/monetary) that produced these results in the first place.<br /><br />The takeaway is this is highly unlikely or desireable so the concept of 'potential' is probably misguided.Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-1410443077320620162012-02-21T12:52:03.241-08:002012-02-21T12:52:03.241-08:00Another good sign for equities is that US unit lab...Another good sign for equities is that US unit labor costs have declined by more than 90% since 1970, and has been trending sharply downwards since 2001 -- more at:<br /><br />http://wjmc.blogspot.com/2012/02/us-unit-labor-costs-1947-2011.html<br /><br />The cost of labor as a percentage of production is at its lowest point since at least 1947.McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69306372347025117772012-02-21T11:52:14.865-08:002012-02-21T11:52:14.865-08:00What a superb wrap-up by our fearless leader, Scot...What a superb wrap-up by our fearless leader, Scot Grannis.<br /><br />Not sure about the p/e chart. With unknown land mines out there (AIG, Long-Term Capital Management, Spain, Iran), a lower p/e might be the new norm, even with low interest rates (which are likely to stay "low" for a long time. Low is the new normal, see Japan). <br /><br />That said, we are in place for a sustainedBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com