tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post1390507104637706578..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Housing prices are reboundingScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79218986214178890122009-10-28T19:58:54.292-07:002009-10-28T19:58:54.292-07:00Paul: I think I agree with Dale. The fundamentals ...Paul: I think I agree with Dale. The fundamentals (improving economy, easy money, low interest rates, lower prices, plenty of time for adjustments) all argue for a housing turnaround. The government's 8K credit is a bit player in this drama. Stay focused on the big stuff, not the month to month variations.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10551679707615329522009-10-28T15:27:46.012-07:002009-10-28T15:27:46.012-07:00Paul,
Well, we'll see, but the historical regr...Paul,<br />Well, we'll see, but the historical regression has been median home price =(5.3967*DPI)+6942.8. The number that indicates is $198K+ today vs. the last tick on median home price of $175K. I think there is upside to home prices, especially with the Fannie and Freddie rate locks at 4.75% today (which means you can lock in a 30-year mortgage at 5.0% or so around the country today). DaleWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16369657928022546882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14658983018650489902009-10-28T08:10:33.030-07:002009-10-28T08:10:33.030-07:00so what happens if the first time homebuyer's ...so what happens if the first time homebuyer's credit isn't extended? Could the rise in prices be due to the rush to get in before the credit expires? Will there be a Cash-for-Clunkers like hangover in December?Paulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06843411100678811292noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50366001632020801752009-10-27T19:00:48.336-07:002009-10-27T19:00:48.336-07:00Dale: if you are right, and I hope you are, it wil...Dale: if you are right, and I hope you are, it will surely be good news for a lot of companies.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48767176791141083022009-10-27T18:20:14.932-07:002009-10-27T18:20:14.932-07:00Home prices should be up 6% or more YoY by January...Home prices should be up 6% or more YoY by January. Using the historical average monthly price series from 1968-2000 (National Association of Realtors data) sequenced forward from last month, I estimate home prices will be up at least 6.5% YoY in January, 2010. Using from the same period median home prices / disposable personal income and fading up over two years to the historical average, I DaleWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16369657928022546882noreply@blogger.com