tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post1354859655632065894..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: No household debt crisis (2)Scott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84332288588207644742009-05-29T11:30:46.389-07:002009-05-29T11:30:46.389-07:00Paul: Thanks. I do think that the supply-side appr...Paul: Thanks. I do think that the supply-side approach is a better way of analyzing the world. I'm amazed that it is not more popular. But that just gives me an edge.<br /><br />BTW, I have posted many times to the effect that Obama's policies will mean a much slower-than-normal recovery. I've remained optimistic about the economy and equities because a) it's easy to be optimistic when the marketScott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25614412146715216392009-05-28T23:41:21.664-07:002009-05-28T23:41:21.664-07:00Now that you point out you are a supply sider, I u...Now that you point out you are a supply sider, I understand the thread in your writing that makes you stand out from most of the other econobloggers.<br /><br />I agree with you that growth is the way out of our current constraints, and am less than sanguine about prospects for sustained growth in the face of heavy government intervention, inflationary policies, and high taxation.pwm76https://www.blogger.com/profile/06360404038525306119noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75907484609408175572009-05-28T13:23:40.108-07:002009-05-28T13:23:40.108-07:00As a supply-sider, I don't put much emphasis on co...As a supply-sider, I don't put much emphasis on consumer demand, because that is not what drives the economy forward on the margin. In the final analysis, the world can only consume an amount equal to what is produced. The key things on the margin are investment, risk-taking, and work. Any of these could get the economy back on an upward track, since they are the things that lead to productivity Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-89899213708682205872009-05-28T00:28:30.162-07:002009-05-28T00:28:30.162-07:00I understand the stock to stock and flow to flow c...I understand the stock to stock and flow to flow comparison. But are balance sheet effects really that negligible, especially in light of high unemployment rates? Growth in consumer demand must be financed from dissaving, increased credit growth, or increased income. Where is it going to come from? In what time frame?<br /><br />So far, in this contraction we have seen debt to GDP ratios pwm76https://www.blogger.com/profile/06360404038525306119noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11574386114952864102009-05-04T12:08:00.000-07:002009-05-04T12:08:00.000-07:00You would expect bankruptcies to rise in a recessi...You would expect bankruptcies to rise in a recession. People lose their jobs, etc. I don't see anything way out of the ordinary, especially considering the collapse in real estate prices.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63735081269917280512009-05-03T17:16:00.000-07:002009-05-03T17:16:00.000-07:00Bankruptcy filings by American consumers increased...Bankruptcy filings by American consumers increased nearly a third in 2008, according to a new report.<br /><br />The American Bankruptcy Institute said overall consumer filings rose to 1.06 million in 2008, compared with 801,840 during 2007. The ABI based its study on data from the National Bankruptcy Research Center.<br />Bankruptcy filings by American consumers surged in February, according to Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79260205797426359062009-05-02T22:08:00.000-07:002009-05-02T22:08:00.000-07:00Comparing the stock of debt to income tells you no...Comparing the stock of debt to income tells you nothing. You need to compare stocks to stocks and flows to flows. Debt payments are a flow and income is a flow. Debt payments as a % of income is thus a sensible way to look at debt burdens. <br /><br />And again, I think the message of the chart is that the consumer did not create a debt-fueled consumption boom. I think it makes more sense to say Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79809333478894579952009-05-02T16:45:00.000-07:002009-05-02T16:45:00.000-07:00Again - I think this chart may be misleading. It ...Again - I think this chart may be misleading. It reflects PAYMENTS as % of income NOT the Consumer Debt Balance itself. This would not be affected by individuals our regularly make minium or partial payments on their consumer credit liabilities.<br /><br />That said - everything I see would indicate that many consumers are trying to repair their balance sheets - a good thing!<br /><br />Lets Slingblade9119https://www.blogger.com/profile/07254335163162335034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37417071681031735432009-05-02T15:14:00.000-07:002009-05-02T15:14:00.000-07:00Scott,
I have no comment to leave you here. I left...Scott,<br />I have no comment to leave you here. I left a "green shoot" at your most recent unemployments claims posting. I found it intriguing and I thought that you might find it so as well.Mark A. Sadowskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13147923641894915172noreply@blogger.com