tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post11966437919149258..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Fed liftoff is good newsScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9172270642457024022015-11-19T19:14:32.723-08:002015-11-19T19:14:32.723-08:00Thanks Thinking Hard. That was a fascinating char...Thanks Thinking Hard. That was a fascinating chart... The move of the last year and a half seems to be supported by so many other market-based prices.Grechsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08898953158865778397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33467740635624884202015-11-19T15:54:25.085-08:002015-11-19T15:54:25.085-08:00Thinking Hard---the Fed is trapped by its own rece...Thinking Hard---the Fed is trapped by its own recent promises to raise rates and by the incorrect perspective that interest rates alone reflect what is monetary policy.<br /><br />As you correctly point out, the nominal interest rate can often be misleading. The Fed has, in effect, been tightening for years.<br /><br />It is incorrect to describe the Fed as "accommodative" since 2008. Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75251019491784689042015-11-19T13:57:09.581-08:002015-11-19T13:57:09.581-08:00Its been a while, thanks for posting and have a go...Its been a while, thanks for posting and have a good Holiday Season.vitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02207266189189057903noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70436086267706488182015-11-19T08:44:40.720-08:002015-11-19T08:44:40.720-08:00We have already been tightening relative to most o...We have already been tightening relative to most of the world. QE3 ended in October 2014. Check out what the shadow rate has done since then: <br /><br />https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/shadow_rate.aspx?panel=1<br /><br />Oct 2014: -2.8%<br />Oct 2015: -0.53%<br />Diff: 227bp over 12 months<br />Note: lowest shadow rate was May 2014 at -2.99%<br />Diff from bottom (May 2014) to Oct 2015:Thinking Hardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11528747799967719972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15615454276332887772015-11-18T16:39:58.891-08:002015-11-18T16:39:58.891-08:00Well, the Fed has consistently overestimated pendi...Well, the Fed has consistently overestimated pending inflation for years, as well as economic growth, so I have limited confidence in their ability to forecast. Or anybody's for that matter. Like Yogi Berra said...<br />Why not sowly normaliize interest on excess reserves? Reduce by one basis point a month the interest that the Fed pays on excess bank reserves.<br /><br />Japan has lower rateBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com