tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post1155430148169618063..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Fear subsides, prices riseScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10318328108868193582010-09-14T16:25:09.523-07:002010-09-14T16:25:09.523-07:00Thanks, John. good points. Sounds like the whole...Thanks, John. good points. Sounds like the whole world is impatiently waiting for the tax rules to be clarified.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17218368702832658780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24480992912791555522010-09-14T15:33:47.886-07:002010-09-14T15:33:47.886-07:00Daniel,
One other point on the cash held by US co...Daniel,<br /><br />One other point on the cash held by US companies overseas: According to John Chambers, CEO of Cisco, there is 1.2 Trillion held overseas by US corporations that will probably NOT be brought back and invested in this country because of high taxes. Unless the tax rate is reduced, it will likely stay overseas and be invested there. Lower taxes will bring the money back here for Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-22124968910308424162010-09-14T14:47:41.902-07:002010-09-14T14:47:41.902-07:00Daniel,
That has been the debate for the last sev...Daniel,<br /><br />That has been the debate for the last several years...what is the best way to return cash to owners? Dividends or share buybacks? The pendlum has been on the side of buybacks but I believe it is swinging back toward dividends. May companies, of course, do both. <br /><br />IMO Apple will face increasing pressure to return capital to owners. Their free cashflow exceeds capital Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-56957303346755682292010-09-14T11:15:54.746-07:002010-09-14T11:15:54.746-07:00What about the new proposed tax increases on divid...What about the new proposed tax increases on dividends? sounds like they will go up, but capital gains tax will stay the same? if this is the case, wouldn't companies with no dividends like Apple be a more attractive investment since one stands to gain more from capital appreciation? (and lower taxes?)Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17218368702832658780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83340553483888429772010-09-14T10:17:17.161-07:002010-09-14T10:17:17.161-07:00Dividends are contributing to the decline in fear ...Dividends are contributing to the decline in fear among market participants. <br /><br />John Chambers, CEO of Cisco announced at an analysts conference today that the company will initiate a dividend next spring. <br /><br />Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase announced the company's intention of restoring a dividend of 30 to 40% of normalized earnings. Some think this can occur in the Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-16899542803203383052010-09-14T08:35:39.659-07:002010-09-14T08:35:39.659-07:00Re: automated trading and the Vix. I don't bel...Re: automated trading and the Vix. I don't believe there is a causal relationship here. The Vix Index is a proxy for how expensive options are. When the Vix is high, options are expensive to buy. Buying options reduces an investors exposure to risk, since the worst that can happen is that they expire worthless, yet they retain almost all the upside that owning something has.<br /><br />The Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33742173270480097162010-09-14T08:17:33.868-07:002010-09-14T08:17:33.868-07:00Expanding some of Newjava456's comment about h...Expanding some of Newjava456's comment about high frequency trading: I think there is a new lower end for the VIX which is higher now. The recent Flash Crash and recovery builds in a new elevated VIX level because of automated trading.Buddy R Pacificohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12737107556268024013noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53342692057730873402010-09-13T17:52:27.507-07:002010-09-13T17:52:27.507-07:00Well, good news. More "serious" people a...Well, good news. More "serious" people are saying the Fed will in fact engage in much-needed quantitative easing. Maybe the dithering "Japan Wing" of the Fed is getting slapped down. <br /><br />Yields Fall to Eisenhower Low in Pimco-BofA View of Fed Easing<br /><br />By Liz Capo McCormick <br /><br />Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg) <br />Bond investors are growing more Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84282735677181628282010-09-13T17:51:16.225-07:002010-09-13T17:51:16.225-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36173239663061023972010-09-13T15:59:59.844-07:002010-09-13T15:59:59.844-07:00why should fear and price be inversely related? wh...why should fear and price be inversely related? why do you think this means anything to anyone? how do you know it is causal?septizoniomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14253705209662419429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50543265429223741532010-09-13T13:26:54.495-07:002010-09-13T13:26:54.495-07:00Thanks for the Blog. I have to think the automated...Thanks for the Blog. I have to think the automated trading affects the VIX. As a programmer all I hear about nowadays is how somebody's buddy is making a killing working for a high-frequency trading house.Max Weberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09260255834988891169noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7002899964742693852010-09-13T13:24:25.170-07:002010-09-13T13:24:25.170-07:00Well, I still have fear. We may be the next Japan....Well, I still have fear. We may be the next Japan.<br /><br />Japan experimented with tight money and fiscal stimulus for 20 years. The results have been horrible, with zero inflation, and 75 percent plummets in equity and property markets. The yen is very strong. They have indebted themselves to the moon. Rising global commodity prices and gold have meant nothing--Japan is now in deflation <br /Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25494239510757582722010-09-13T12:34:54.765-07:002010-09-13T12:34:54.765-07:00When the majority stop worrying, it will be time t...When the majority stop worrying, it will be time to worry.<br /><br />Exaustion of fear is a sign of a bottom, not a top. <br /><br />People are replacing cars out of necessity because the average age of the fleet exceeds 10 years. This is good since the procrastination option is being exausted. <br /><br />The markets will turn higher long before the news headlines turn positive. There is no Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81168197964870024042010-09-13T11:33:34.533-07:002010-09-13T11:33:34.533-07:00For what its worth, my guess is that fear is subsi...For what its worth, my guess is that fear is subsiding because of exhaustion! It's been almost 3 years since the crisis has started. None of the news is good, its just a lot less bad (which to a certain degree is good). Chief economist of Edmonds.com had an interesting comment, people are replacing cars out of necessity not out of choice. That speaks volume to an iconic american product Frozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.com