tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post110612177437957504..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Treasury bond yields collapseScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60384906978571207322008-12-09T13:53:00.000-08:002008-12-09T13:53:00.000-08:00Scott - How come you have data going back to 1925?...Scott - <BR/><BR/>How come you have data going back to 1925? I'm trying to find similar data on the Federal Reserve website, and it only goes back to 1962 or so? Do you have the data in excel format? If so, would you mind sending it to me (w51w52@gmail.com)?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08592449140732081242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78694885445019514522008-12-02T07:59:00.000-08:002008-12-02T07:59:00.000-08:00As I see it, the chance of a US default is still v...As I see it, the chance of a US default is still very small, so it is not reflected in Treasury yields. What is most astonishing though is the bond market's willingness to believe that the Fed's monetization of debt will not be inflationary. Gold, for example, is telling us that inflation is indeed a distinct risk.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11496010763656687472008-12-02T03:47:00.000-08:002008-12-02T03:47:00.000-08:00What I find interesting is that the CDS market app...What I find interesting is that the CDS market appears to be assigning some possibility of the US defaulting yet treasury yields continue to plummet. At what point does government duration become 'just another risk asset'? Albeit one wrapped by a printing press.The Lab-Rathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07536760477782772549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66742442961183740922008-12-01T15:27:00.000-08:002008-12-01T15:27:00.000-08:00Until recently, TIPS yields had risen while Treasu...Until recently, TIPS yields had risen while Treasury yields were declining. Anytime real yields on TIPS are high (3% or so) that makes them very attractive because you can lock in a guaranteed rate of return above inflation.<BR/><BR/>Rising real yields and falling nominal yields reflected the market's view that inflation was likely to turn negative for an extended period. <BR/><BR/>The Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24257966444280081042008-12-01T13:02:00.000-08:002008-12-01T13:02:00.000-08:00Scott, can you work TIPS into this discussion, bas...Scott, can you work TIPS into this discussion, based on your previous posts in October arguing that buying TIPS early last month were a steal? Thanks -- Jon S.Jon S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/14840074248344452572noreply@blogger.com